| 研究生: |
吳宜臻 Wu, Yi-Chen |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
供應鏈在價格相依的不確定需求下之最佳化延遲設計 The Postponement Strategy for Supply Chain Planning with Price Dependent Stochastic Demand |
| 指導教授: |
林正章
Lin, Cheng-Chang |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 交通管理科學系 Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science |
| 論文出版年: | 2011 |
| 畢業學年度: | 99 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 93 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 供應鏈管理 、需求不確定 、延遲策略 、兩階段隨機規劃 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Supply Chain Management, Demand Uncertainty, Postponement Strategy, Two-stage Stochastic Programming |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:122 下載:7 |
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本研究鑒於所回顧的供應鏈延遲策略相關文獻,其定量研究多以成本最小化為衡量依據來進行各項決策規劃,而需求不確定性的處理,多採用特定分配下固定的期望值與變異數來進行研究探討;然而企業實際的營運並非僅考量成本,亦須考慮收益的部分,故本研究在兼顧成本與收益之考量下,探討具生產規模經濟之多產品製造商,在面對價格相依不確定需求時,如何設計最佳化之供應鏈延遲網路結構,並研擬價格策略,以及相搭配之採購、生產、運輸、倉儲與配送之營運規劃,以達期望利潤最大之目標。
本研究之供應鏈延遲策略考量製造延遲與物流延遲,依據延遲生產與預測生產之兩種供應鏈設計,以兩階段隨機規劃建構期望利潤最大化與期望成本最小化之兩種數學模式,並按模式特性以分解法之L型演算法(L-shaped)為架構進行求解。
研究結果顯示:(1)延遲生產的供應鏈結構與營運規劃,較預測生產擁有較好的績效表現,原因在於延遲生產在需求發生前先製成半成品,等到需求確定後再組裝成成品進行供給,如此不僅可降低單位存貨成本,亦可發揮產品間風險共擔之效果,降低需求變異性所產生的倉儲準備量;而預測生產在需求發生前就直接製成成品,且僅考慮個別產品之需求不確定,無法有效進行資源共用而產生較高的存貨成本;(2)整合價格策略之利潤模式,能以價格策略研擬產量,同時考量期望收益與期望成本間的權衡,以獲得最適價格,提高期望利潤。
In this research, we focus on decision-making for a manufacturer supplying two kind of product when consider single-period procurement, manufacturing, transportation, inventory, distribution and pricing plan under uncertain demand, limited economic of scale in production in order to maximize manufacturer’s expected profit.
The problem has been formulated as a maximum expected profit problem and a minimum expected cost problem with the concept of manufacturing in postponement or speculation. An L-shaped decomposition with an additional decomposition step in the master problem is proposed.
One of the computational results showed that the postponement strategy yields better system performance than speculation strategy due to the semi-finished goods can get risk pooling effect and then reduce demand variability and inventory. The other showed that a profit formulation yields better system performance than a cost formulation due to it can decide production by pricing, and consider the tradeoff between expected revenue and expected cost simultaneously to get optimize pricing and increase expected profit.
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