鋼鐵產業乃是工業之本，為國家建設的根基。而不鏽鋼(Stainless steel)改善鋼鐵原有性質，已逐漸取代一般鋼鐵廣泛應用。而鎳原料約佔不鏽鋼原料成本70%左右，鎳價波動對不鏽鋼產業有極大衝擊及影響，實有探究鎳價波動的必要性。2009年美國聯準會推出量化寬鬆政策(Quantitative easing)，導致美元貶值，資金流向商品市場，引發全球通膨危機。歐洲債務主權危機在2009年12月，希臘被下調信用評級，隨著國際油價大跌、美國道瓊回檔以及歐元區經濟衰退陰影，讓全球股市、債市與商品市場全面重挫。本研究採用計量經濟學擬出迴歸方程式，以鎳價的時間序列資料及美國量化寬鬆政策及歐洲債務主權危機為虛擬變數，來進行實證迴歸分析。
以2009至2014年間LME鎳價月資料之迴歸方程式結果發現，顯著正向影響LME鎳價的主要因素為鋼鐵指數與LME銅價，美國第一次QE則有顯著負向影響；而美元指數、國際原油價格、美國第二次QE、美國QE退場及歐債危機，則對LME鎳價呈負向影響，但皆並不顯著。美國QE及歐債危機等國際重大經濟事件，其迴歸結果不盡相同，此結果證實Saghaian and Reed(2015)及Hammoudeh、Nguyen and Sousa(2014)商品價格影響因素不僅是貨幣政策或經濟事件，仍有許多其他因素影響。

Extended Abstract
An Analysis of the Relationship between Nickel Price, U.S. Monetary Policy, and the European Debt Crisis
Author’s Name: Yi-Pei Lee
Advisor’s Name: Hsin-Hong Kang
Department of Business Administration and College of Management
National Cheng Kung University

SUMMARY
This research investigates fluctuations in the price of LME nickel during the period from 2009 to 2014 and the relationship of these fluctuations with U.S. monetary policy and the European debt crisis. It is also intended to analyze the influence of supply, demand, and currency on the price of LME nickel. A multiple regression analysis is used to examine the time series nickel price data with the U.S. quantitative easing policy and the European debt crisis as dummy variables. The results of the regression indicated that the stainless index, LME copper price, and the U.S. QE1 have significant effects on the LME nickel price; however, the European debt crisis has no significant effect on it. This result confirms that the nickel price factors include not only monetary policy or economic events, but also many other factors.
Key words: nickel price, U.S. monetary policy, European debt crisis, multiple regression analysis.

INTRODUCTION
The steel industry supports the infrastructure of a country. Stainless steel mainly adds special elements to improve the properties of steel, and it has been widely used in various industries. Nickel and ferro-chrome are the main raw materials used to manufacture stainless steel, and nickel makes up about 70% of the cost of the materials used to make stainless steel. Nickel price fluctuations are often caused by rapid changes in stainless steel prices.
After the 2008 global financial crisis, the U.S. Federal Reserve launched its quantitative easing (QE) policy by buying specified amounts of financial assets. The major commodities in the world were priced in dollars as a benchmark, and QE led to the depreciation of the dollar, causing a global inflation crisis.
The European debt crisis began in December of 2009 as a result of lowering the credit rating of Greece. Until April of 2010, the crisis swept across Europe and also crept in the global stock, bond and commodity markets.
This study explores the impact of the U.S. QE policy and the European debt crisis on LME nickel prices.

MATERIALS AND METHODS
This research uses an econometric to analysis by using E-Views to conduct an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis in order to investigate the impact of this research theme. In the regression model, the dependent variable Y is the month average of LME nickel cash official settlement prices from January, 2009 to December, 2014 (a total of 72 observations). Some of the independent variables X originate from the supply side, e.g. the LME warehouse nickel inventory, and some originate from the demand side: the steel benchmark from U.S. market, currency: the U.S. dollar index, and other commodity prices: NYMEX crude oil prices and LME copper cash official settlement prices. The dummy variables are qualitative variables. They include: Indonesia affirming a nickel ore export ban, U.S. Fed's QE policies (including QE1, QE2, QE3 and QE tapering), and the European debt crisis. According to the independent variables, the dummy variables and the purpose of this study established the regression model as follows:
Y=α+ β1X1 + β2X2 + β3X3 + β4X4 + β5X5+γ1Di +γ2DQE1 +γ3DQE2 +γ4DQE3 +γ5DQET +γ6DEDC +μt

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The final model of this research was an OLS regression coefficient calculated using E-Views as follows:
Dependent variable: LME nickel cash official settlement price
Independent/dummy variables Variables Coefficient Std. Error T-Statistic Prob.
Steel benchmark X1 8.682465 3.381709 2.567478 0.0127**
U.S. dollar index X3 -60.32715 68.40208 -0.881949 0.3813
Crude oil prices X4 -7.908306 25.31538 -0.312391 0.7558
LME copper prices X5 2.370339 0.370893 6.390899 0.0000**
U.S.QE1 DQE1 -2055.770 750.3520 -2.739741 0.0081**
U.S.QE2 DQE2 -713.1370 754.3224 -0.945401 0.3482
U.S.QE3 DQE3 56.10629 848.6413 0.066113 0.9475
U.S. QE tapering DQET -30.74147 848.5064 -0.036230 0.9712
Constant term C 2140.254 7415.631 0.288614 0.7739
First difference AR(1) 0.963360 0.042429 22.70536 0.0000**
During: 2009/01~2014/12
R-squared: 0.945049 Adjusted R-squared: 0.936941
F-statistic: 116.5645 Durbin-Watson stat: 1.708304
Y = 2140.254 + 8.682465X1 - 60.32715X3 - 7.908306X4 + 2.370339X5 - 2055.770DQE1 - 713.1370DQE2 + 56.10629DQE3 - 30.74147DQET + 0.963360AR(1)
*: 10% significance level; **: 5% significance level
The R2 value is 0.945049, which means the regression holds 90% of the explanatory power on the LME nickel prices, and after the first difference method, the D-W value is 1.708135, which is close to 2 and indicates that this is the best regression equation. The steel benchmark (X1), the LME copper prices (X5), and the U.S. QE1 (DQE1) reach the 5% significance level.

CONCLUSIONS
The regression equation indicated that there are significant positive effects on the LME nickel price from LME copper price and the steel benchmark from the U.S. market, and as to the U.S. QE1, there is significant negative effect. The U.S. dollar index, the NYMEX crude oil prices, the U.S. QE2, U.S. QE tapering and the European debt crisis showed negative effects on the LME nickel prices, but these effects were not found to be significant. The regression results are not the same with regard to the U.S. QE policies, the European debt crisis and other major international economic events, and the results confirmed Saghaian and Reed (2015) and Hammoudeh, Nguyen and Sousa (2014), who suggested that commodity prices not only are affected by monetary policies or major international economic events but that many other factors need to be taken into consideration.

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參、網站部分
MetalPrices.com：http://www.metalprices.com/
Metal Bulletin：http://www.metalbulletin.com/
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