本研究旨在探究疫情和封城政策對美國出生率的影響。在疫情期間，感染者可 能會暫時喪失工作能力，無法將子女送至照護機構。此外，政府實施的封城政策除 將根據不同行業是否能夠轉換成遠距工作的模式對美國民眾造成不同程度的影響。 這些因素都會影響美國國民的生育選擇。為了深入了解疫情、封城政策和新生兒出 生率之間的關係，我們建立了一個生育決策模型，並將疫情特徵融入其中，以觀察 不同狀態下的出生率變化。研究結果顯示，由於疫情期間感染風險的增加導致民眾 無法工作，導致部分民眾無法只用政府提供的救助金負擔養育子女的費用，因此在 進入疫情期間出生率持續下降，直到疫情結束後才開始回升。然而，我們的模型結 果還顯示，在封城期間新生兒出生率意外地上升。這一現象可能是由於在疫情期 間，由於遠距工作造成民眾的薪資下降反而使得在家照顧孩童的成本降低使得民眾 相對於疫情之前的生育誘因更加強烈。

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdown policies on the birth rate in the United States. During the pandemic, infected individuals may lose the ability to work and be unable to send their children to childcare facilities. Additionally, the impact of government lockdown policy varies among individuals, depending on the extent to which their respective industries can effectively transition to remote work. These factors have significant implications for individual fertility decisions. To understand the relationship between the pandemic, lockdown policies, and the birth rate, we develop a simplified fertility decision model that represents the decision-making process. We incorporate the unique characteristics of the pandemic into this model, allowing us to analyze its effects on the birth rate. Our findings reveal a decrease in the birth rate due to the increased risk of wage loss if infected. However, contrary to expectations, there is a surge in the birth rate during the lockdown period. This can be attributed to the decrease in wages during the lockdown. In turn, this lowers the cost of home care relative to earning a wage, making the prospect of having a child more appealing.

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