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研究生： 王進益
Wang, Jin-Yi
論文名稱： 需求不確定下IC設計公司與代工廠之研發投資量、產量與定價之決策
Cooperation R&D investment, capacity and price decision in semiconductor industry under demand uncertainty
指導教授： 謝中奇
Hsieh, Chung-Chi
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年： 2022
畢業學年度： 110
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 80
中文關鍵詞： 需求不確定性 、產能預訂 、良率改善 、賽局理論 、協調合約
外文關鍵詞： Demand uncertainty, Capacity reservation, Yield improvement, Game theory, Coordination contract
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    • 本研究欲探討IC設計公司與晶圓代工廠在面對需求不確定時，選擇何種研發合作行為能獲取最大利潤且使良率提升，並觀察價格和預訂產能的變化。par

    初步建模方式將以賽局理論為基礎，建立一個依序賽局。首先，IC設計公司與代工廠會依據利潤最大化的目標改變其研發合作之互動方式。在雙方決定研發投資量後，接著由IC設計公司向代工廠提出產能預訂並訂定售價，其中IC設計公司需為每單位的預訂產能支付預訂成本。最後，求解方式則依據賽局理論中的逆向歸納法，依序回推求解均衡決策及利潤。本研究在上述基礎模型中，將研發成果分享程度加入考量，進而建立四個分散式系統下的模型，並以供應鏈中最佳的集中式系統模型作為標竿相互比較。

    研究結果顯示若雙方以自身利益最大化時，代工廠並不會投入於研發合作。研發卡特爾確實能帶來供應鏈整體利潤的成長，但對於個別利潤而言，僅IC設計公司有獲利提升。為此，本研究提出協調合約，期望藉此來達成雙贏(win-win)的局面。IC設計公司價格如預期中受到雙方成本項極大影響，且本身對市場需求也存在巨大的影響。而從數值結果可以發現研發合作與研發成果分享可成為改善此情況的媒介。

    The Purpose of this thesis is to observe which kinds of R&D cooperation can derive the maximum supply chain profit and yield improvement when both the IC design house and the foundry face the demand uncertainty from the market. Besides, the IC design house's price, reservation quantity and the R&D effort of both the IC design house and the foundry are the key points to focus as well. To process the observation, a sequential game is built. In the beginning, both of the IC design house and the foundry decide their R&D cooperation based on maximizing the profit which may be respective or the supply chain's. After that, the IC design house will place a reservation order with the foundry, pay a cost for each reservation quantity, and determine his price. We use backward induction to solve the equations and get the equilibrium. Base on the fundamental model setting mentioned above, knowledge spillovers is further taken into account. As a result, we extend to four models in the decentralized system and compare to the benchmark model which is the centralized model. Results show that the foundry wont invest in R&D when both of them maximize their own profits. R&D cartel brings the maximum supply chain profit indeed; however, another contract should be adopted to achieve win-win. Last but not least, the IC design house's price may be affected significantly by the R&D investment of both members and the cost of rush order. To ease the influence, R&D cartel and knowledge spillover would be useful factors.

    中文摘要 I Abstract II 誌謝 V 目錄 VI 表目錄 X 圖目錄 XI 第一章 緒論 1 1.1. 研究背景與動機 1 1.2. 研究目的 3 1.3. 研究流程 4 1.4. 研究架構 5 第二章 文獻探討 7 2.1. 需求不確定性 7 2.1.1 報童模式 7 2.1.2 報童模式結合產能問題 8 2.2. 晶圓之良率改善 11 2.3. 研發合作 12 2.4. 小結 16 第三章 模型建構與發展 17 3.1. 研究情境 17 3.1.1. 情境假設 18 3.1.2. 符號定義 19 3.2 分散式系統之簡介與利潤函式建構 21 3.2.1. 研發合作相關設定 21 3.2.2. 產能規劃相關設定 22 3.2.3. 雙方利潤函式 24 3.2.4. 良率倒數之近似函數 25 3.3. 未合作模型(模型N) 25 3.4. 合資模型(模型V) 28 3.5. 研發卡特爾模型(模型C) 29 3.6. 研發合資卡特爾模型(CV) 29 3.7. 集中式系統之利潤函式建構 30 3.7.1. 資訊部分分享之集中式系統 31 3.7.2. 資訊完全分享之集中式系統32 3.8. 小結 33 第四章 協調策略 34 4.1. 協調合約運行下之利潤函式 34 4.2. 合約參數設計 35 4.3. 利潤雙贏 36 4.4. 小結 37 第五章 數值分析 38 5.1. 參數設定與數值結果 38 5.1.1. 數值結果 39 5.1.2. 參數變動範圍 42 5.2. 移轉支付參數分析 42 5.3. 代工廠批發價格之敏感度分析 44 5.3.1. 代工廠批發價格對利潤的影響 45 5.3.2. 代工廠批發價格對研發投資量及良率的影響 46 5.3.3. 代工廠批發價格對預訂產能的影響 47 5.3.4. 代工廠批發價格對IC設計公司價格的影響 48 5.4. 產能預訂費用之敏感度分析 48 5.4.1. 產能預訂費用對利潤的影響 49 5.4.2. 產能預訂費用對研發投資量及良率的影響 49 5.4.3. 產能預訂費用對預訂產能的影響 51 5.4.4. 產能預訂費用對IC設計公司價格的影響 51 5.5. 代工廠產能建置成本之敏感度分析 52 5.5.1. 代工廠產能建置成本對利潤的影響 52 5.5.2. 代工廠產能建置成本對研發投資量及良率的影響 53 5.5.3. 代工廠產能建置成本對預訂產能的影響 54 5.5.4. 代工廠產能建置成本對IC設計公司價格的影響 55 5.6. 緊急訂單成本之敏感度分析 55 5.6.1. 緊急訂單成本對利潤的影響 55 5.6.2. 緊急訂單成本對研發投資量及良率的影響 56 5.6.3. 緊急訂單成本對預訂產能的影響 58 5.6.4. 緊急訂單成本對IC設計公司價格的影響 58 5.7. IC設計公司研發成本係數之數敏感度分析 59 5.7.1. IC設計公司研發成本係數對利潤的影響 59 5.7.2. IC設計公司研發成本係數對研發投資量及良率的影響 60 5.7.3. IC設計公司研發成本係數對預訂產能的影響 61 5.7.4. IC設計公司研發成本係數對IC設計公司價格的影響 61 5.8. 代工廠研發成本係數之數敏感度分析 62 5.8.1. 代工廠研發成本係數對利潤的影響 62 5.8.2. 代工廠研發成本係數對研發投資量及良率的影響 63 5.8.3. 代工廠研發成本係數對預訂產能的影響 64 5.8.4. 代工廠研發成本係數對IC設計公司價格的影響 65 5.9. 需求隨機因子之敏感度分析 65 5.9.1. 需求隨機因子對利潤的影響 65 5.9.2. 需求隨機因子對研發投資量及良率的影響 66 5.9.3. 需求隨機因子對預訂產能的影響 67 5.9.4. 需求隨機因子對IC設計公司價格的影響 67 5.10. 研發成果分享程度之敏感度分析 68 5.10.1. 研發成果分享程度對利潤的影響 68 5.10.2. 研發成果分享程度對研發投資量及良率的影響 69 5.10.3. 研發成果分享程度對預訂產能的影響 70 5.10.4. 研發成果分享程度對IC設計公司價格的影響 71 5.11. 小結 71 第六章 結論與未來研究方向 72 6.1. 結論 72 6.2. 未來研究方向 73 參考文獻 75

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