本論文主要因應台灣2015年公布之《溫室氣體減量及管理法》所規定總減排目標(於2050年時溫室氣體總排放量為2005年的50%)進行減排研究。配合溫管法，本研究目的為(1)計算公路運輸部門2015年至2050年之二氧化碳排放量，並假設不同情境下，評估公路運輸部門是否能達成《溫管法》之規範。此外，(2)利用碳權總量配置，衡量公路運輸部門之碳排放成本。本研究主要以公路運輸為研究範圍，分析機動車輛於車輛正常成長、車輛零成長、車輛負成長等假設下，若機動車輛使用低碳能源，如改使用液化天然氣汽車、插電式油電混合動力車等情境，並搭配碳權機制，檢視公路運輸部門碳排放減量情形。
研究結果顯示：(1)自用小客車為機動車輛中能源消耗最多之車種，致其二氧化碳排放量遠高於其他車種；而機車為機動車輛中數目最多之車種，也造成其為公路運輸部門第二大二氧化碳排放量來源；(2)達成總減排目標情境有：車輛零成長假設下之情境二(機動車輛逐年使用插電式油電混合車)、車輛負成長假設下之情境二(機動車輛逐改使用插電式油電混合車)及情境三(機動車輛逐年使用部分液化石油氣汽車與部分插電式油電混合車)，上述情境中於2050年總碳排放量，分別為1,829.33萬公噸二氧化碳、1,746.66萬公噸二氧化碳，及1,818.28萬公噸二氧化碳。又用路者所需負擔碳排放費用各為19,207百萬元、18,340百萬元和19,092百萬元。綜合上述情形可知機動車輛負成長假設下之情境二，有最適總減排成效及碳排放成本；(3)在車輛負成長下，若僅欲達成溫管法減排目標，各情境機動車輛年成長率分別為97.5%、99.1%、99.45%與99.32%；(4) 本研究亦分析各情境二氧化碳排放密集度，以2050年為例，排放量最高者為車輛正常成長下之基線情境(0.700公噸CO2/美元)，排放量最低者為車輛負成長下之情境二(0.176公噸CO2/美元)，兩者間差距達398%。欲使台灣公路運輸部門達成《溫室氣體減量及管理法》之總節能減碳目標，需有效抑制機動車輛的成長，並提升燃料效率，方能達成減量目標。

This study focuses on analyzing carbon emissions of the road transport sector in Taiwan. Due to the declaration by the Taiwan Government of "Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Law", the overall emission reduction target is that, total emissions by 2050 should be cut down to at least half of those observed in 2005. This paper aims to (1) calculate carbon dioxide emissions of road transport sector from 2015 to 2050 using different scenarios. (2) Using total carbon emission configuration to measure the cost of emission in the road transport sector. Carbon dioxide emission mitigation of various vehicles is based on vehicles normal growth, zero growth and negative growth situations. Four scenarios will be presented: (1) business-as-usual, (2) Liquefied Petroleum Gas vehicles (LPGV), (3) plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and (4) mix LPG vehicles with plug-in hybrid vehicles are designed. Furthermore, the costs of carbon allowance allocation are examined. Moreover, the study further examines the costs of carbon allowance allocation.
The research concludes that: (1) small passenger vehicles consume the largest amount of fuel and produces higher carbon emissions. additionally, motor vehicles produces higher carbon dioxide emissions due to their occasionally large numbers that are frequently seen in the road; (2) There are three presumed scenarios that can achieve the specified emission reduction target: under zero growth, Scenario one (assumption of using PHEV); under negative growth, Scenario two (assumption of using PHEV) and scenario three (assumption of using LPGV and PHEV). The amount of carbon emission that could reach the reduction target in 2050 are found as follows: 1,829.33 ten thousand tons of CO2、1,746.66 ten thousand tons of CO2 and 1,818.28 ten thousand tons of CO2. Furthermore, the carbon emissions cost that would be paid by road users in each scenarios in 2050 stands as follows (from scenario 1 to 3): NTD 19,207 million, NTD 18,340 million, and NTD 19,092 million respectively. (3) The study also analyzed various scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions intensity in 2050. Among all scenarios, the highest intensity is under normal growth, baseline scenarios (0.700 tons CO2/USD); the lowest emissions is found under negative growth, Scenario two (0.176 tons of CO2/USD). The percentage emission gap between those scenarios is 398%
In order to achieve the reduction required target of "Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Management Law", this paper suggests that the policies aimed at mitigating CO2 emissions, must not only focus on controlling the growth of vehicles and allocating carbon allowance, but it must also pay more attention on increasing fuel efficiency.

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