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研究生: 李廷杰
Li, Ting-Jie
論文名稱: 臺灣地區電離層地震前兆空間與時間異常分析研究
Pre-seismic ionospheric signature spatial and time anomaly analysis in Taiwan area
指導教授: 陳佳宏
Chen, Chia-Hung
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 理學院 - 地球科學系
Department of Earth Sciences
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 87
中文關鍵詞: 電離層地震前兆
外文關鍵詞: ionosphere, seismo-ionospheric precursors
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  • 強烈地震往往會對人們的生命財產造成莫大的威脅,若能夠有有效的地震預警系統,及早預測地震的發生,就能為避難爭取到寶貴的時間。本論文利用GNSS衛星觀測資料計算出的電離層全電子含量(TEC),並以前15天資料做為背景值,如果該天TEC數值大於15天中1/4的值或小於後1/4的值,就判斷為TEC異常。除了時間上的異常之外,本論文同時利用反距離加權法(IDW)建立台灣地區周圍完整的TEC空間分布,同樣以前15天資料進行TEC異常區域判定,並累計以15分鐘一筆資料做為間隔的24小時內異常區域發生的次數總和,來分析地震前台灣區域上空電離層異常的空間變化,同時進一步統計分析2000~2021年2~4月(春季)與8~10月(秋季)規模大於等於5.7以上台灣地區所發生的30筆地震事件,分析電離層異常的持續時間,分布區域和異常範圍,以及震央深度對電離層異常的影響,將月份固定在春秋兩季可以減少季節變化造成的影響,長時間的分析結果將有助於我們了解太陽週期是否會對異常區域及持續時間產生影響。本論文研究結果有助我們了解地震發生前電離層異常持續時間以及異常區域與震央之間的關係,以及不同震源深度對電離層的影響,以評估利用電離層預測地震的可行性。

    In this paper, temporal and spatial analyses are employed to detect seismo-ionospheric precursors (SIPs) in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) for 30 earthquakes occurred in February to April and August to October during 2000-2021. The TEC data combined with the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method were used to reconstruct the ionospheric map over Taiwan area. The upper TEC and the lower TEC anomaly boundaries based on 15 days data before the current day can us to detect the temporal and spatial distributions of ionospheric TEC anomaly feature. Results show that positive (negative) anomaly has higher occurrence rate on 7 (1-2) days before the earthquakes. Result further found that the negative TEC anomaly has clear solar activity variations, showing higher (lower) occurrence rate during high (low) solar activity period. The depth of hypocenter also affects the pattern of ionospheric anomaly.

    目錄 i 圖目錄 ii 表目錄 iii 摘要 iv Abstract v Extended Abstract vi 第1章. 研究簡介 1 第2章. 研究方法 5 2.1 GPS觀測方法 5 2.1.1 虛擬距離觀測法 6 2.1.2 載波相位觀測法 7 2.2 反距離加權法 (Inverse Distance Weighting) 7 2.3 TEC時間與空間異常判定 9 第3章. 研究結果 11 3.1 2018/02/06花蓮地震 11 3.2 2016/02/06 美濃地震 14 3.3 2000~2021年地震正負異常統計結果 17 第4章. 討論 22 第5章. 結論 28 參考文獻 29 附錄 31 附錄1. Jonah et al. [2015]圖5結果 31 附錄2. 30筆地震分析結果 32

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