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研究生: 金翰飛
Jin, Han-Fei
論文名稱: 台灣企業使用固定式貸款利率規避利率風險之研究
Taiwanese firms use the fixed-rate loans to avoid interest rate risk
指導教授: 蔡群立
Tsai, Chun-Li
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 96
中文關鍵詞: 利率風險固定式利率風險管理普羅比模型三階段迴歸
外文關鍵詞: interest rate risk, fixed-rate, risk management, Probit model, three-stage regression
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  • 企業在向銀行借貸時,可以藉由選擇固定式利率來減少利率風險的威脅,因為在短期它會受到較小的利率波動,讓企業的資產負債表較穩定。過去的研究中,較少討論此議題,而大多以衍生性金融商品來當作企業主要的風險管理手段。而以台灣的資料來分析此議題更是少之又少。
      本文將以普羅比模型(Probit model)作為研究方法,研究銀行特性,企業特性和貸款特性如何影響借貸時固定式利率的機率。本文還將驗證企業在規模較小,財務上較受到限制的企業會增加使用固定式利率以規避利率風險;此外,若企業能夠與銀行保持持續的往來關係,將讓企業減少使用固定式利率借貸,因此銀行往來關係的強度對企業風險管理是很重要的;最後我們將以三階段迴歸法考量此模型的內生性,並再加以探討考慮內生性問題後,是否還能得到與原本模型相同之結論。

    Firms can manage interest rate shock by using fixed-rate loan when they borrow money from banks, because fixed-rate loans face less interest rate fluctuations in the short-term, and make firms’ balance-sheet more stable. There’s no so many studies about this issue, most of them discuss about financial derivatives as the main risk manage method. And it’s even lesser when the data is from Taiwan.
    This paper will construct a simple Probit model to study how the characteristics of bank, firm and loan effect the probability of the choice of fixed-rate loan. We will also prove that small and credit-constrained firms are found to match often with fixed rate to avoid interest rate risk. Besides, if firms can maintain a strong lending relationship with banks, they will reduce using fixed-rate loans, so lending relationship is a very important issue for firms’ interest rate risk management. Finally, we will consider endogenous problem using three-stage regression, to examine that after we consider the endogenous problem, whether can we have the same conclusion.

    目錄 第一部分 研究動機 1 第二部分 文獻回顧 7 第一節 利率風險對企業的影響 7 第二節 利率風險對銀行的影響 10 第三節 企業避險的研究 12 第四節 銀行往來關係強度 14 第五節 研究貢獻 15 第三部分 研究方法 18 第一節 資料庫簡介 18 第二節 普羅比模型(Probit model)介紹 19 第三節 實證模型介紹 22 第四節 變數預測 24 第五節 內生性問題 27 第四部分 實證結果 34 第一節 樣本資料之敘述性統計 34 第二節 財務限制變數 43 第三節 放款方控制變數 45 第四節 貸款控制變數 47 第五節 企業控制變數 50 第六節 內生性問題 51 第七節 考慮總體變數後之迴歸結果 52 第五章 結論 65 參考文獻 71 表目錄 表2-1 本文與Vickery銀行往來強度之定義比較 17 表3-1 變數說明與預測 33 表4-1 固定式利率之敘述性統計分析 34 表4-2 固定式利率與貸款金額之敘述性統計 36 表4-3 固定式利率與放款期間之敘述性統計 36 表4-4 銀行往來關係之敘述性統計分析 37 表4-5 銀行往來關係與貸款金額之敘述性統計 38 表4-6 銀行往來關係與放款期間之敘述性統計 39 表4-7 擔保品之敘述性統計分析 40 表4-8 擔保品與貸款金額之敘述性統計 40 表4-9 擔保品與放款期間之敘述性統計 41 表4-10 MTCRI信用風險指標之敘述性統計分析 42 表4-11 其他變數之敘述性統計 43 表4-12 r1與固定效果之迴歸結果 53 表4-13 r2與固定效果之迴歸結果 54 表4-14 r3與固定效果之迴歸結果 55 表4-15 不考慮固定效果之迴歸結果 56 表4-16 考慮內生性後之迴歸結果 57 表4-17 加入總體變數後之迴歸結果(考慮銀行固定效果) 58 表4-18 加入總體變數後之迴歸結果(考慮企業固定效果) 62 表4-19 加入總體變數後之迴歸結果 64 表5-1 TEJ產業代碼表 67 表5-2 個別產業固定效果之迴歸結果 69 附錄一 個別銀行固定效果迴歸結果 77 附錄二 本文資料之各銀行證券代碼 80 附錄三 邊際效果(dy/dx)之迴歸結果(考慮銀行固定效果) 83 附錄四 邊際效果(dy/dx)之迴歸結果(考慮企業固定效果) 87 附錄五 邊際效果(dy/dx)之迴歸結果 89 附錄六 考慮總體變數後邊際效果之迴歸結果(考慮銀行固定效果) 90 附錄七 考慮總體變數後邊際效果之迴歸結果(考慮銀行固定效果) 94 附錄八 考慮總體變數後邊際效果之迴歸果 96 圖目錄 圖1-1 本文架構與研究流程 6

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