在競爭市場下，產能設定對於廠商的收益有著舉足輕重的影響。在產品生命週期的概念下，產品的銷售情形會隨不同時期有所變化，並能藉此估算出產品的需求量，讓廠商瞭解市場需求，以便設定出適當的產能以滿足市場需求。在寡佔市場中，廠商在決定產能時，其決策行為會受到競爭者的投資行為影響，而市場的總體生產量也會影響到產品價格的制訂；在產量過高的情況，存貨越多，其價格會越低。本論文探討當產品存在不同的生命週期時，廠商的產能投資行為。同時將利用新產品生命週期概念引入新產品擴散模式，以Bass擴散模式為需求預測模式，並假設存貨和價格呈反比關係，建立模型來探討雙頭寡佔市場下新產品於導入期和成長期時廠商的產能擴充行為。本研究以TFT-LCD之產業資料來進行模式的驗證，在導入期和成長期為供過於求的情形下，利用模式求得最適產能水準。新產品在成長期時，由於產量高於需求，因此產生之存貨將會使得廠商採取降價行為以出售多餘產量，利用所求得之生產量來估算廠商採取降價行為時之最低價格，由於廠商彼此成本及生產量有所差異，因此最低價格訂定的不同，將會導致廠商採取價格競爭。

Capacity expansion plays an important role in the competitive market. The new product diffusion model is a forecasting model of demand under the concept of product life cycle. Using product diffusion model can predict the demand accurately. If there is only one manufacturer in the market, the manufacturer can expand the capacity through the product diffusion model. But if there are more than two manufacturers in the market, the supply may be higher than the demand. Besides, in the duopoly, the manufacture’s capacity planning decision may be influenced by it competitor. If the supply is higher than the demand, the inventory will affect the price. The more inventories are, the lower price is. This research discusses the capacity expansion problem in the growth stage over the product life cycle. When using the Bass model, the demand can be predicted. Through the forecasting demand, this research can build the capacity planning model and assumes the negative relationship between the inventory and the price. Through the result, we can find the appropriate capacity planning decision while the total supply is higher than total demand. And, we also discuss the manufacturer how to set the price after they expand their capacity.

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