本研究旨在探討匯率波動與國際貿易的關聯性，並進一步研究匯率波動在擴大與縮小期間，對於臺灣與美國貿易是否存在不對稱的影響。本研究使用2001 年1 月到2023年4月的產業別資料，透過NARDL (nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag) 模型，分析匯率波動對於臺灣與美國進出口的不對稱影響，以及變數之間的短期動態調整與長期均衡關係。
本文實證結果發現，無論在長期或短期下，美國與臺灣的進出口皆會受到匯率波動的不對稱影響。在短期內，至少有45% 的進出口產品受到匯率波動的不對稱影響。在長期方面，匯率波動則對至少40% 的進出口產品具有不對稱影響。若按進出口產品分類，匯率波動對出口產品的長短期影響，多呈現正負混合的效果。然而，進口產品顯著地受到匯率波動長期不對稱影響，占自美國總進口額63%，且第一大進口品機械及電機設備，以及電子零組件、原油和光學及精密儀器；鐘錶；樂器等主要進口品，均顯著受到匯率波動不對稱性的負面影響。總結來說，進口產品比出口產品更為顯著地受到匯率波動的不對稱負面影響。

This study aims to explore whether exchange rate volatility exhibits asymmetric effect on Taiwan-US trade during periods of exchange rate volatility expansion and contraction. We provide empirical evidence of asymmetric effects in 40 export commodities from Taiwan to the U.S. and 37 import commodities from the U.S. Monthly data from January 2001 to October 2022 were analyzed. The NARDL (nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag) approach was utilized to measure the asymmetric impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows and capture dynamics in both the short and long term. The findings indicate that exchange rate volatility has a significant asymmetric effect on approximately 45% of the export and import commodities in short-term, while at least 40% in the long term. Regarding export products, the impact of exchange rate volatility shows a mixed effect in both the short and long term. However, imported products are significantly affected by asymmetric exchange rate volatility, accounting for 63% of the market share. The primary import products, such as Machinery and Electrical Equipment, Parts of Electronic Product, Petroleum, and Optical, Precision Instruments; Clocks and Watches; Musical Instruments, all experience a notable negative asymmetric impact. In summary, imported products are more significantly affected by the negative asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility compared to exported products.

張瑞娟、徐茂炫、林君瀅 (2006)。檢視臺灣機電及紡織出口貿易受匯率波動影響的不對稱性-格子搜尋法虛擬變數的應用。臺灣經濟預測與政策， 36(2)，115-139。
馮冠瑋 (2020)。匯率波動對臺灣-美國貿易間影響 : 以產業貿易資料分析 (碩士論文)。國立清華大學經濟系，新竹市。
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