新藥研發過程最後必須經過臨床試驗第三期的解盲測試，但是新藥解盲結果往往會令大眾投資人失望。新藥解盲失敗不但對本身主體公司股價造成嚴重的挑戰，對整體生技股股價波動也會造成很大的衝擊。本研究以近年來主要新藥解盲失敗事件對生技醫療產業股價產生的異常報酬率來進行討論。以股價的異常績效來分析新藥解盲失敗所造成的影響，這是較為客觀性，並且具有整體性的衡量指標。用市場模式 (Market Model) 進行估計，來衡量在新藥解盲失敗宣告前後期間對整體生技醫療產業有無股價異常報酬的產生。
本研究以事件研究法 (Event Study)，以Thompson (1993) 與Grace,Rose and Karafiath (1995) 所採用的市場模式探討發生2014年7月27日之基亞 (Medigen Biotechnology Corp) 新藥解盲失敗以及2016年2月21日浩鼎 (OBI Pharma) 新藥解盲失敗對台灣整體生技股股票異常報酬的影響。
實證結果發現:
1.整體上市櫃生技股股票的確會因為新藥解盲失敗後，與事件主角股價產生連動性為負的異常報酬率。以直線迴歸分析，也具有顯著影響。
2.新藥解盲失敗後對製藥類生技股股價會產生很大影響的平均累積異常報酬率。
3.兩次新藥解盲失敗對大盤加權指數與生技醫療類指數的波動，分別有不同的影響。

The new drug R&D process must pass through unblind test of clinical tests in phase III, but unblind results of new drugs often make public investors disappointed. New drugs’ unblind failure not only causes a great challenge to companies’ stocks, but also greatly impacts stock price fluctuation of overall biotechnology. The study will discuss abnormal return rate of new drugs’ unblind failure on medical industry of biotechnology and analyze influences of new drugs’ unblind test from the perspective of abnormal performance of stock price. This is relatively objective and has the integrality. The market model is used to evaluate and measure generation of abnormal returns in the overall medical industry of biotechnology before and after new drugs’ unblind failure statement.

Based on the Event Study, the market model of Thompson(1993), Grace, Rose and Karafiath(1995) is used to discuss influences of the new drugs’ unblind failure of Medigen Biotechnology Corp on July 27th 2014 and new drugs’ unblind failure of OBI Pharma on February 21st 2016 on abnormal returns of overall biotechnology stocks in Taiwan.

Empirical results find that
1. Overall biotechnology stocks indeed generate abnormal returns with negative motility of the subject stock price after the new drugs’ unblind failure. It also has the significant effect with the linear regression analysis.
2. After the new drugs’ unblind failure, it will generate average abnormal returns on stock price of pharmaceutical biotechnology.
3. After twice new drugs’ unblind failure, it will cause a different influence on weighted index number and fluctuation of biotechnology indexes.

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