ABSTRACT

Glacial lakes play vital roles in the hydrological cycle and mountain ecosystems, but their existence and growth have been greatly affected by the escalating global warming phenomenon. As glaciers melt and glacial lakes form and expand, the threat of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) is escalating, resulting in potential catastrophic outcomes for nearby regions, thereby endangering infrastructure, terrain, and human lives. Hence, effective disaster management necessitates prioritized monitoring and forecasting of glacial lakes to mitigate the hazards associated with GLOFs.
This study introduces a novel glacial lake monitoring method that combines two-dimensional and three-dimensional analyses utilizing Satellite altimetry (ICESat-2 and GEDI) and multispectral imagery (Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2). The methodology represents a significant advancement over conventional GLOF detection techniques that solely rely on optical imagery, lacking vertical dimension information of glacial lakes and floodwaters. Accuracy for elevation retrieval was assessed, yielding an RMSE of 17 cm for ICESat-2 and 38 cm for GEDI. Furthermore, this study introduces the straightforward Statistical Warning Approach (SWA), a cutting-edge method for GLOF prediction. The SWA incorporates lake area and level time series derived from remote sensing data. To validate the SWA's effectiveness, case studies were conducted on two glacial lakes that experienced GLOFs. The warnings generated by the SWA were compared with observations obtained through remote sensing data before and after the GLOFs. Additionally, the warning criteria were compared with Change Point analysis, demonstrating the SWA's capability to provide accurate and timely warnings for potential GLOFs. The proposed monitoring system shows promising potential in providing timely and actionable warnings, enhancing disaster preparedness and risk reduction in regions with glacial lakes. This constitutes a vital progress in managing the dynamics of glacial lakes, especially in the face of the challenges imposed by global warming.

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