台灣高鐵根據營收管理的概念，推出許多行銷策略，雖然搭乘人數不斷因為優惠而增加，但台灣高鐵目前平均載客率僅約50%，本研究認為行銷策略推出時，較少考量到乘客在接受訊息會有時間上的落差，無法立刻反應在載客運量與營收上，進而造成資源分配無效率問題，而且影響載客運量與營收變化的因素複雜，難以分辨是否來自於推出行銷策略的影響。本研究將以台灣高鐵為主要探討對象，建構時間因素、總體因素及行銷策略對台灣高鐵載客運量的向量誤差修正模型，利用因果關係檢定與衝擊反應分析找出各因素影響載客運量的長度與幅度，利用預測誤差變異數分解深入分析造成載客運量增加的來源所占比例，試圖利用更符合成本的方式推出行銷策略。
實證結果發現，時間因素、總體因素及行銷策略與運量和營收存在長期均衡關係，時間因素中的連假因素與農民曆因素平均對運量和營收有立即反應且造成10%至15%影響，總體因素中消費者物價指數與國民生產毛額平均於落後一期至兩期後對運量及營收造成20%至25%影響，行銷策略分成三階段討論效果為何，平均落後一期至兩期後對運量與營收造成不同幅度的影響，且隨著應變數為運量或營收影響行銷策略幅度不同，營收與運量不一定會等幅度變化，因此要適時掌握能控制的變數，使行銷策略對運量與營收的貢獻極大化。最後依據行銷策略影響營收的比例進行成本效益分析，隨著大環境變化透過三階段推出行銷策略使營收維持在一定的範圍，未來台灣高鐵可以依據本研究結果推出不同的行銷策略同時增加運量與營收。

According to the concept of revenue management, Taiwan High Speed Rail carried out many marketing strategies. We consider the inefficient resource allocation and it’s hard to identify the factors which effect on ridership. We built vector error correction model (VECM) and structural analysis in explaining the relationship among time, macroeconomics and marketing strategies. The empirical results are as following. First, long-term cointegrations exists between trends for ridership and all the factors discussed in this study. In time factors, consecutive holidays and lunar calendar have initiate impact on 10% to 15% of ridership and revenue. In macroeconomics factors, customer price index and gross domestic product have average lag one or two lengths impact on 20% to 25% of ridership and revenue. The marketing strategies which divided by three phase depend on economic environment have average lag one or two lengths impact on ridership and revenue. Second, because of ridership and revenue do not always change simultaneously, we control the variables such as marketing strategies to maximum ridership and revenue. It does conclude that the benefit of marketing strategies is significant. THSR will carry out various marketing strategies in the future.

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