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研究生: 宋明璟
Sung, Ming-Ching
論文名稱: 考慮策略型顧客與投機者之動態定價最佳化
Dynamic Pricing Optimization for Strategic Customers and Speculators
指導教授: 莊雅棠
Chuang, Ya-Tang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 74
中文關鍵詞: 提前銷售動態定價策略型消費者投機者
外文關鍵詞: pre-sales, dynamic pricing, strategic consumers, speculators
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  • 許多企業透過提前銷售模式提升知名度,以此在正式銷售期間增加利潤。然而,相對於正式銷售期間,提前銷售的定價策略更為複雜。在提前銷售情境下,顧客可以分為三種類型,包括短視顧客、策略型顧客和投機者。短視和策略型顧客都賦予產品一定的心理價值,但其購買策略不同;短視顧客基於當下對產品價值的看法做出購買決策,而策略性顧客則考慮未來產品價格的波動,在此基礎上最大化其自身利潤。而投機者對產品並無特別喜好,僅考慮未來是否有轉售機會以賺取利潤。本研究探討兩階段的訂價策略:第一階段為提前銷售期,第二階段為正式銷售期。研究旨在找到一個兩期的最優定價,幫助決策者根據市場上資訊訂定出一個最優策略以獲得最大利潤,並研究市場顧客類別組成的不同賣方最佳訂價策略和最佳利潤的影響。透過兩方視角單獨進行分析顧客購買決策以及賣方的銷售決策,分別了解到每種顧客類型的購買行為及購買目標,再進行分析賣方應該如何應對三種不同類型的顧客作出最佳售價,將兩種決策相互結合進行策略競局過程中,並探討最優定價策略所獲得最大利潤。最終本研究發現,投機者會根據市場上短視顧客與策略型顧客的比例影響賣方的利潤,投機者在短視顧客一定的比例時將會使賣方利潤升高,而投機者在策略型顧客市場比例較高時將會導致利潤的降低。我們還發現當庫存限制在一半時,賣方能夠獲得最大的利潤。

    Many businesses utilize a pre-sale model to bolster their visibility and increase profits during the official sales period. However, compared to the official sales period, pricing strategies for pre-sales tend to be more intricate. In the context of pre-sales, customers can be classified into three types: myopic customers, strategic customers, and speculators. While both myopic and strategic customers attribute a certain psychological value to the product, their purchasing strategies differ. Myopic customers base their purchasing decisions on their immediate perception of the product’s value, whereas strategic customers consider potential fluctuations in future product prices to maximize their own profits. On the other hand, speculators do not hold a specific preference for the product; they merely consider whether there will be resale opportunities in the future to earn a profit.This study delves into a two-stage pricing strategy: the pre-sales period and the official sales period. Its objective is to pinpoint an optimal pricing strategy for these two stages, aiding decision-makers in devising the most effective approach based on market information to maximize profits. The study also examines the impact of different compositions of market customer types on the optimal pricing strategy and optimal profit for sellers. By separately analyzing customer purchasing decisions and seller sales decisions from both perspectives, the study gains insight into the purchasing behavior and objectives of each customer type. It assesses how sellers should respond to three different types of customers to ascertain the best selling price and integrates these two decisions to explore the maximum profit obtained through the optimal pricing strategy in the strategic game process.This study ultimately finds that speculators influence the seller’s profit based on the proportion of myopic and strategic customers in the market. Specifically, speculators increase the seller’s profit when there is a certain proportion of myopic customers, while a higher proportion of strategic customers in the market leads to a decrease in profit. Additionally, we find that the seller achieves maximum profit when the inventory is limited to half.

    摘要i 英文延伸摘要ii 目錄vii 表目錄ix 圖目錄xi 第一章緒論1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目標 4 1.3 論文架構 5 第二章文獻回顧6 2.1 提前銷售 6 2.2 動態定價 7 2.3 顧客類別 9 2.3.1 短視顧客 10 2.3.2 策略型顧客11 2.3.3 投機者 13 2.4 小結 14 第三章模型架構16 3.1 情境假設 16 3.2 顧客購買行為 19 3.2.1 短視及策略型顧客購買行為 19 3.2.2 投機者購買行為 20 3.3 其他設定 21 3.4 小結 23 3.5 時間順序 23 第四章策略分析26 4.1 顧客第一期購買策略26 4.1.1 短視顧客第一期購買產品數量26 4.1.2 策略型顧客第一期購買產品數量 27 4.1.3 投機客第一期購買產品數量 28 4.2 定價策略 30 4.2.1 全短視顧客定價策略 31 4.2.2 全策略型顧客定價策略 34 4.2.3 短視及策略型顧客定價策略 36 4.2.4 三種類型顧客之定價策略 39 4.2.5 敏感度分析 47 第五章結論與未來研究方向51 5.1 結論51 5.2 未來研究方向 53 附錄54 6.1 三種顧客類型第二期定價策略與利潤 54 6.2 庫存限制情況第二期定價策略與利潤 57 參考文獻59

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