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研究生: 王芳芳
Wang, Fang-Fang
論文名稱: 結合田口與多準則決策方法求解穩健供應鏈資訊共享策略
The evaluation of robust supply chain information-sharing strategies using a hybrid Taguchi and multiple criteria decision-making method
指導教授: 楊大和
Yang, Taho
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 電機資訊學院 - 製造工程研究所
Institute of Manufacturing Engineering
論文出版年: 2007
畢業學年度: 95
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 92
中文關鍵詞: 系統模擬啤酒遊戲多準則決策方法田口方法資訊共享策略
外文關鍵詞: Taguchi method, System simulation, Multiple Criteria Decision Making Method, Information sharing strategy, Beer Game
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  • 隨著網路與資訊科技的進步,促使供應鏈及其管理技術的持續演進,許多資訊共享策略也因應而生,如電子銷售點、供應商管理存貨、電子購物和緊急運送等。但環境的變化會產生不確定性,不同的績效指標在不確定的環境下受到的影響程度也往往不同,因此當企業在選擇供應鏈資訊共享策略時增加了決策的困難。而一個有效率的供應鏈策略,不僅要能夠減少成本、提高顧客服務水準,更需在不確定的環境中仍能維持穩健的特性,以確保企業的營運績效與競爭力。本研究利用啤酒遊戲,以田口複合雜音因子(Compounding noise factors)方法建構出不確定情境,藉由模擬方式探討不同的供應鏈資訊共享策略在不確定環境中的績效表現,再以訊號雜音比(Signal-to-Noise ratio,簡稱SN比)作為各個準則穩健特性的衡量指標,並結合多準則決策方法在多個準則間做一整體評估。如此希望提供決策者一套有系統且有效率的穩健供應鏈資訊共享策略評估流程,以期改善決策品質,降低供應鏈成本與決策風險。而研究的結果指出,以電子銷售點同時結合緊急運送和移除配銷商的供應鏈資訊共享策略在不確定環境中有較佳的穩健特性。

    The advance of internet and information technology has prompted the development of supply chain and related management techniques. Many information sharing strategies have been created, such as electronic point of sales, vendor manage inventory, e-shopping, emergency transportation and so on. The variation of environment will produce uncertainty and the levels of different performance criteria which are affected by different environments are distinct. As a result, it will increase decision difficulties when enterprises choose supply chain information sharing strategies. An effective and efficient supply chain strategy should not only have the ability to reduce cost, raise customer service level, but also maintain the robustness characteristic under uncertain environments to make sure the business operation efficiency and competitivity. Our research constructs uncertain scenarios by compounding noise factors which was proposed by Taguchi. And we observe the performance of different supply chain strategies under different uncertain environments by simulation of the Beer Game. Then we calculate Signal-to-Noise ratio of each criteria as the robustness performance index and make an overall evaluation among each criteria by multiple criteria decision making methods. To improve decision quality, reduce supply chain costs, and decision risks, we provide a systematic and efficient evaluation process of robust supply chain information strategies for decision makers. And the result of this research shows that combines electronic point of sales with emergency transportation and reduced supply chain strategy to be an integrated strategy will have better robustness characteristic under uncertain environments.

    目錄 目錄 vi 圖目錄 viii 表目錄 xi 1. 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 2 1.3 研究流程 3 1.4 論文架構 4 2. 文獻探討 5 2.1 供應鏈資訊共享策略文獻回顧 5 2.2 供應鏈穩健特性文獻回顧 11 2.3 田口與多準則決策方法文獻回顧 12 2.4 總結 13 3. 研究方法 15 3.1 模擬模式之建構程序 16 3.2 田口方法 18 3.3 多準則決策方法 23 4. 案例說明與實驗分析 33 4.1 啤酒遊戲 33 4.2 訂購策略 34 4.3 模擬模式建構 37 4.4 實驗情境 66 4.5 實驗分析 67 4.6 敏感度分析 77 5. 結論與建議 87 5.1 結論 87 5.2 未來研究建議 89 參考文獻 90 圖目錄 圖1.1 研究流程圖 4 圖2.1 傳統的供應鏈 6 圖2.2 簡化的供應鏈 6 圖2.3 電子購物的供應鏈 6 圖2.4 電子銷售點 7 圖2.5 供應商管理存貨 8 圖2.6 基礎供應鏈 9 圖2.7 電子銷售點 9 圖2.8 製造商管理存貨 10 圖2.9 緊急運送 10 圖2.10 移除配銷商的供應鏈 11 圖3.1 穩健決策分析流程 15 圖3.2 雜音因子之因子效用圖 20 圖3.3 灰關聯分析流程圖 29 圖4.1 傳統供應鏈策略之模擬模式架構 39 圖4.2 顧客階層Submodel之展開圖 40 圖4.3 產生顧客訂單 40 圖4.4 Interarrival time設定 41 圖4.5 顧客需求數量 41 圖4.6 顧客需求數量設定 42 圖4.7 用來判斷顧客服務水準的decide module 42 圖4.8 判斷存貨數量是否足夠設定 43 圖4.9 累加的滿足訂單數量設定 43 圖4.10 累加的未滿足訂單數量設定 44 圖4.11 顧客服務水準計算 44 圖4.12 運送數量 44 圖4.13 貨物運送前置時間 45 圖4.14 貨物運送前置時間設定 45 圖4.15 判斷是否有缺貨待補 46 圖4.16 存貨數量更新 46 圖4.17 已訂尚未收到的貨物數量更新 46 圖4.18 預測需求數量更新 47 圖4.19 扣除需求數量後剩餘的存貨數量 47 圖4.20 存貨誤差計算 47 圖4.21 目標已訂尚未收到的貨物數量 48 圖4.22 在製品數量誤差 48 圖4.23 訂購數量設定 48 圖4.24 訂單傳遞前置時間設定 49 圖4.25 生產數量設定 49 圖4.26 產品加工 50 圖4.27 生產前置時間設定 51 圖4.28 指定產品良率 51 圖4.29 產品良率設定 52 圖4.30 績效指標資料收集 52 圖4.31 簡化的供應鏈策略之模擬模式架構 53 圖4.32 電子購物之模擬模式架構 54 圖4.33 電子銷售點之顧客需求資訊分享 55 圖4.34 供應商管理存貨策略零售商之訂購數量 55 圖4.35 緊急運送策略之模擬模式架構 56 圖4.36 緊急運送策略貨物運送前置時間設定 57 圖4.37 移除配銷商之模擬模式架構 58 圖4.38 電子銷售點結合緊急運送與移除配銷商策略之模擬模式架構 59 圖4.39 存貨數據 60 圖4.40 存貨數量折線圖 61 圖4.41 模擬動畫示意圖 65 圖4.42 存貨成本SN比折線圖 79 圖4.43 顧客服務水準SN比折線圖 80 圖4.44 顧客服務水準SN比折線放大圖 81 表目錄 表4.1 APIOBPCS之決策準則 37 表4.2 目標存貨水準=14時之顧客服務水準 62 表4.3 目標存貨水準模擬測試結果 63 表4.4 存貨成本所需模擬次數 63 表4.5 顧客服務水準所需模擬次數 64 表4.6 實驗情境 67 表4.7 存貨成本之SN比 68 表4.8 顧客服務水準之SN比 68 表4.9 存貨成本之SN比經標準化後的價值 69 表4.10 顧客服務水準之SN比經標準化後的價值 69 表4.11 各策略之加權總價值 70 表4.12 與正負理想解之距離 72 表4.13 相對接近程度與結果排序 72 表4.14 存貨水準SN比之上限測度 73 表4.15 顧客服務水準SN比之上限測度計算 74 表4.16 各準則之差序列值 74 表4.17 灰關聯係數 75 表4.18 灰關聯度 76 表4.19 多準則決策方法排序結果比較 77 表4.20 不同目標存貨水準下存貨成本之SN比 78 表4.21 不同目標存貨水準下顧客服務水準之SN比 78 表4.22 簡易多屬性決策方法下目標存貨水準之敏感度分析 82 表4.23 順序偏好法下目標存貨水準之敏感度分析 83 表4.24 灰關聯分析下目標存貨水準之敏感度分析 83 表4.25 參數設定方式 84 表4.26 不同參數設定下存貨成本之SN比 84 表4.27 不同參數設定下顧客服務水準之SN比 85 表4.28 簡易多屬性決策方法下參數設定之敏感度分析 85 表4.29 順序偏好法下參數設定之敏感度分析 86 表4.30 灰關聯分析下參數設定之敏感度分析 86

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