| 研究生: |
黃敏則 Huang, Min-Tse |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
臺灣城鄉空屋形成之因果差異及其現象解析 The static analysis of vacant housing in Taiwan urban and rural areas |
| 指導教授: |
陳彥仲
Chen, Yen-Jong |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
規劃與設計學院 - 都市計劃學系 Department of Urban Planning |
| 論文出版年: | 2021 |
| 畢業學年度: | 109 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 79 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 空屋率 、住宅市場 、城鄉差異 、住宅供需均衡模型 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Vacancy rate, housing market, urban and rural differences |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:186 下載:70 |
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臺灣的空屋問題一直是住宅市場上備受關注的議題,過高的空屋率不僅意味著住宅喪失其原本功能,淪為置產投資的工具,更代表著浪費許多社會成本建設不符合居住需求的住宅。除了高空屋率外,臺灣住宅市場還存在高房價的情形,以經濟供需理論角度來看,高空屋率、高房價是相當矛盾的悖論現象。而一地區的發展程度及發展模式,都會使得空屋之現象及因果關係上有所差異;根據現象之觀察,鄉村地區與都市地區之空屋現象及因果關係應是有所差異的,鄉村地區多因住宅窳陋、區位不佳等因素而空置;都市地區則因價格、投資意願高而空置。故在制定空屋政策前,應先根據發展程度的不同,在造成空屋形成的基礎上進行識別,以制定適當之政策。除了高空屋率的現象下,臺灣住宅市場同時還存在高房價的問題。
本研究透過台電低度用電住宅資料推估各鄉鎮市區的空屋量及空屋率,並以人口密度劃分都市、鄉村地區。首先以統計資料檢視都市、鄉村地區之空屋現象及分布情形,並解析空屋率與房價之影響關係。接著以建立住宅供需均衡模型檢視空屋形成之因果關係於都市及鄉村地區有何異同。最後再利用邊際影響及彈性分析探討模型各變數間之相互影響關係及敏感程度。
研究係以2012、2015及2018年三年度之臺灣本島349個鄉鎮市區作為實證範圍。實證結果顯示都市地區之空屋量較高、空屋率則普遍較低;鄉村地區空屋量較低,而空屋率浮動較大,但整體而言高於都市地區。住宅供需均衡模型則顯示都市地區之空屋與房價關係與理論相符,鄉村地區則存在悖論現象。而在2012、2015及2018年都市地區中,前期空屋量與住宅價格之彈性係數皆為負值。2012年前期空屋量每增加1萬宅,當期住宅價格則會下降10.108萬元;2015年前期空屋量每增加1萬宅,當期住宅價格則會下降10.973萬元;2018年前期空屋量每增加1萬宅,當期住宅價格會下降4.126萬元。
According to the observation, the phenomenon and causality of empty houses in rural areas and urban areas are different. Urban areas are vacant due to high prices and investment intentions. Therefore, before formulating policies for empty houses, it is necessary to identify the forms of empty houses based on the different development levels, so as to formulate appropriate policies. In addition to the phenomenon of high housing rate, Taiwan's housing market also has the problem of high housing prices.
The research covers 349 towns and cities in Taiwan in 2012, 2015 and 2018. The empirical results show that the number of vacant houses in urban areas is higher and the vacancy rate is generally lower. The number of vacant houses in rural areas is lower and the vacancy rate fluctuates more, but it is higher than that in urban areas as a whole. The housing supply and demand equilibrium model shows that the relationship between empty houses and housing prices in urban areas is consistent with the theory, while in rural areas there is a paradox. However, in 2012, 2015 and 2018, the elasticity coefficient of the previous vacant house quantity and housing price is negative. If the number of vacant houses increases by 10,000 in early 2012, the current housing price will fall by 101,080 NTD. In the early part of 2015, if the number of vacant houses increases by 10,000, the current housing price will decrease by 109,73 NTD; For every 10,000 more vacant homes in early 2018, the current housing price will fall by 41,126 NTD.
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