生態系(ecosystem)概念自1971年由Odum提出後逐漸受到重視，其重要性於自然角度為生物多樣性，於人類角度為生態系服務，此二者對於人類自身的經濟發展或是與環境間的永續發展均有影響，因此維護生態系的健全度是重要的。影響生態系之健全度因素很多，氣候變遷(Climate Change)被認為是其中一項，以河川生態系來說，因氣候變遷會改變水文、水質等參數，進而影響到河川生態系內部複雜之交互作用，最終將改變其健全及穩定度。
本研究目的在於探討在氣候變遷下，河川生態系將受到何種衝擊。研究方法為利用水質參數─鹽度做為探討媒介，利用類神經網路模式推估鹽度在氣候變遷下之改變情況，再以此改變情況配合河川生物之耐鹽度關係，探討氣候變遷對於河川生態環境之衝擊。研究工具利用倒傳遞類神經網路建立鹽度推估模式，以「固定日數降雨」、「固定日數無降雨」、「海平面相對上升」、「潮位」及「Julian Date」五個變數為模式輸入、「鹽度」為模式輸出，配合聯合國政府氣候變遷小組IPCC提供之情境(A1B、B1)做短期(2010-2045)及長期(2081-2100)模擬，並將鹽度推估結果用機率概念描述不確定性問題。
本篇以嘉義縣朴子溪流域為研究區域，結果顯示，鹽度推估值均有增加的趨勢(長期>短期>現況)，且增加幅度隨著與河口距離增加而漸小，但於兩情境間並無明顯差異。以此鹽度推估結果配合生物(植物、動物)之耐鹽度範圍探討研究區域河川生態環境所受之衝擊，發現未來淡鹹水體的轉變將會是此處淡水魚類最主要的威脅，淡水區域減少、鹹水區域增加可能迫使淡水魚群往上游遷徙；而對下游河口之紅樹林來說，未來鹽度值(長期)將普遍高於其生長鹽度上限值，此將造成紅樹林數量及空間上的變化。

The importance of ecosystems such as biodiversity and ecosystem services has been realized since 1971 that Odum brought this concept up. In order to ensure the importance and function of ecosystems in future days, it is indeed to maintain the healthiness of ecosystems. Climate change can impact ecosystems in many different ways including through change of hydrology. The purpose of this thesis is to discuss the impact of climate change to river ecosystems by studying salinity change. Salinity, which is highly related to the organism in the river ecosystems, is a good indicator for impact of climate change in river ecosystems. The tool used to build the salinity projecting model is back-propagation neural networks, which is a robust tool to simulate water quality. And the concept of probability is used to solve the uncertainty issues.
The study area would be Pu-Zi river basin, Chiayi, Taiwan. And two scenarios, A1B and B1, from the results show the increase of salinity among all sites. And for the organisms such as fishes and riparian plants, the altered of water classification (fresh water→brackish water…etc) is the main threaten to fishes, and highly probability of high salinity event is a problem to plants.

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