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研究生: 楊昇潔
Yang, Sheng-Chieh
論文名稱: 新冠肺炎疫情對於台灣民眾民主滿意度的影響:選舉贏家和輸家的差異
The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Taiwanese Citizens’ Satisfaction with Democracy: Differences Between Electoral Winners and Losers
指導教授: 王奕婷
Wang, Yi-Ting
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學院 - 政治學系
Department of Political Science
論文出版年: 2025
畢業學年度: 113
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 83
中文關鍵詞: 民主滿意度新冠肺炎選舉贏家和輸家聚旗效應政治信任
外文關鍵詞: Satisfaction with Democracy, COVID-19, Election Winners and Losers, Rally ’Round the Flag Effect, Political Trust
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  • COVID-19疫情衝擊導致民眾生活發生變化,並且改變了民眾的政治態度。COVID-19疫情期間對政治態度的影響被廣泛地研究,但在台灣政治研究中較少討論關於COVID-19疫情下經濟衝擊對於民主滿意的影響。
    本文為了填補這一研究空白,嘗試透過檢視經濟評價、防疫政策滿意度以及選舉贏家和輸家之間的差異,來解釋影響台灣民眾民主滿意度的因素。利用亞洲民主動態調查第六波(2022)的台灣調查,分析COVID-19疫情影響民眾對於民主滿意評價的因素。台灣政治環境長期處於朝野對立的局面,選舉贏家與輸家在民主滿意度上普遍存在顯著落差。然而,本文發現,在COVID-19疫情期間,情況有所不同:隨著民眾對防疫政策的滿意度提升,選舉輸家對民主的滿意度提升幅度高於選舉贏家,兩者之間的差距因而縮小,顯現出聚旗效應的現象。本文還發現這種現象透過了政治信任作為中介效果傳遞。
    本文探討COVID-19疫情下民眾對民主滿意度評價因素的變化,為重大事件所造成的政治與經濟衝擊提供新的觀點。這將有助於了解重大危機發生後影響民眾政治評價的因素變化,並為未來應對經濟與公共健康雙重危機提供參考,了解民主滿意度影響因素,有助於提升政府治理品質,防止民眾對民主失望及避免民主崩潰。

    This study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped the determinants of satisfaction with democracy (SWD) in Taiwan. Previous studies have emphasized economic performance, political trust, and the winner-loser gap as major factors influencing democratic satisfaction. However, large-scale crises such as COVID-19 may alter citizens’ evaluation standards by shifting public attention from electoral competition toward government performance in crisis management.
    Using data from the Asian Barometer Survey Wave 6 Taiwan survey (2022), this study analyzes the effects of pandemic policy satisfaction, economic evaluations, political trust, and winner-loser status on democratic satisfaction. The findings indicate that satisfaction with pandemic control policies significantly increases democratic satisfaction and has a stronger effect than traditional economic evaluations during the pandemic period. In addition, election losers experienced a larger increase in democratic satisfaction when they positively evaluated government pandemic policies, thereby narrowing the winner-loser gap. This phenomenon reflects a “rally ’round the flag” effect under public crisis conditions. Furthermore, political trust serves as an important mediating mechanism linking pandemic policy satisfaction and democratic satisfaction.
    This study contributes to the literature by extending rally effect theory from leader support to institutional support and demonstrating how crisis governance can reshape democratic evaluations in highly polarized societies.

    摘要i 謝辭vi 目錄viii 表目錄ix 圖目錄x 第一章 前言與研究動機1 一、研究背景1 二、研究動機3 三、研究問題與貢獻5 第二章 文獻回顧與理論架構8 一、影響民主滿意度的因素8 二、從經濟評估到防疫政策:民眾對民主滿意度的評價標準是否轉變?18 三、危機中的心理機制:聚旗效應與政治信任21 四、危機下的整合效果:選舉贏輸差距是否縮小22 第三章 研究方法25 一、資料來源25 二、變數操作化26 三、統計模型30 第四章 研究結果33 一、迴歸分析結果33 二、中介變項分析結果35 三、調節作用分析結果39 四、穩健性分析42 第五章 結論61 參考文獻64 附錄71 問卷題目71

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