| 研究生: |
陳宗聲 Chen, Tsung-Sheng |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
供應鏈動態行為模式分析 An approach to analyzing and modeling decision behavior in supply chain |
| 指導教授: |
吳植森
Wu, Chih-Sen |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 資訊管理研究所 Institute of Information Management |
| 論文出版年: | 2002 |
| 畢業學年度: | 90 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 71 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 資料採礦 、決策樹 、啤酒賽局 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | beer game, decision tree, data mining |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:108 下載:3 |
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個人或企業都處在資料過多但資訊過少的情境中,如何在眾多的資料中擷取可供決策出有用的資訊顯得非常重要。將資料轉換成資訊的方式有很多,資料採礦(Data Mining)對於從大量資料中擷取出可供利用的資訊提供了有效率的解決方式。
真實世界裡的產業活動行為可經由模擬方式來進行研究。模擬為一種有效而可行之分析方法。本研究透過供應鏈模擬程式-啤酒賽局(Beer Game),對單一供應鏈體系進行模擬,取得決策行為資料。再以Data Mining方法中的決策樹(Decision Tree),對資料進行分析,產生有用之管理資訊,用以分析Beer Game供應鏈決策行為。本研究也探討不同資訊淬取方式所得到的決策樹進行分析比較其有效性。本研究可提供決策者結構化之決策資訊,可提高決策品質,藉以改善存在於供應鏈中的長鞭效應,降低整個供應鏈的成本。
Both individuals and enterprises are all in a data rich and information explosion environment. There are many methods can transform data into information. Data mining is one of the most effective ways in capturing useful information from a huge amount of data.
The behavior of business activities can be analyzed through simulation. Simulation has been proven an effective analysis tool. In this study, we capture data of decision behavior in a supply chain by using a famous simulation program, beer game, which is developed in MIT. The gated data was transformed into decision knowledge. Decision knowledge was extracted and represented in decision trees through data mining techniques. Several trees were induced by different schemes of data arrangement. The performs of decision based on distinct decision trees are compared in terms of error rates. The study chows that knowledge generated directly from transaction data can be used to import quality of decision and hence reduce bullwhip effect in supply chain.
中文部份
Berry, M. J. and Linoff, G. S. 著/ 彭文正 譯,「Data Mining資料採礦:顧客關係管理暨電子行銷之應用」,維科出版社,民國90年。
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英文部份
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