| 研究生: |
許伯勳 Hsu, Po-Hsun |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
財務危機預警模型研究 The Research of Financial Distress Prediction Model |
| 指導教授: |
林軒竹
Lin, Hsuan-Chu |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 財務金融研究所 Graduate Institute of Finance |
| 論文出版年: | 2019 |
| 畢業學年度: | 107 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 44 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 財務危機預警模型 、羅吉斯迴歸 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Financial Distress, Logistic Regression |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:112 下載:10 |
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當公司發生財務危機時影響的層面相當廣泛,為了能夠預見公司未來發生財務危機的可能性,本篇研究將以不同類型之變數來建立全產業適用之財務危機預警模型,期望投資人或銀行授信能夠藉由此預警模型來避免有潛在財務危機風險的公司,本篇研究探討在財務危機預警模型中加入不同類型之變數是否能夠增加模型之預測力與降低型二誤差,使用三種不同類型的變數,分別為財務變數、公司治理變數及市場資訊變數,最後本篇研究發現,當使用測試樣本發生財務危機前兩年及前三年之資料時,增加不同類型之自變數確實能夠增加模型之整體預測力及降低型二誤差,然而當使用測試樣本發生財務危機前一年之資料時,只有在預警模型中加入公司治理變數時能夠增加預測力及降低型二誤差,加入市場資訊變數後之整體預測力與未加入前大致相同。
The impact of financial distress is quite extensive. In order to foresee the precursor of financial distress firms, this study is going to construct a model with different types of variables and is applicable for all industries. Investors and banks can avoid the firms with potential risk of financial distress with this prediction model. This study will discuss whether employing different types variables will increase the prediction power of the model and decrease the type II error. The variables employed by this study are the accounting-based, corporate governance and market information variables. Finally, the result shows that when applying different types of variables into the financial distress prediction model, the prediction power will increase and type II error will decrease in the test data of two and three years before financial distress occurs. However, the prediction power dose not increase and type II error does not decrease when adding the market information variables in the data of one year before financial distress occurs.
Foreign literature:
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Domestic literature:
李春安、徐傳瑛 (2010),「董事會獨立性與企業財務危機關係之研究。」 管理與系統第十七卷第三期 P.467-499。
李馨蘋、黃啟倫 (2009),「股權結構、關係人交易與公司績效。」 中華管理評論學報國際期刊第十二卷二期 P.1-31。
林郁翎、黃建華 (2009),「考慮公司治理之企業財務危機預警模型。」東吳經濟商學學報第六十四期P.23-56。
高蘭芬、盧正壽、黃冠智、陳安琳 (2012) 「公司治理、公司績效與投資策略。」中山管理評論第二十卷第三期 P.851-880。
陳建宏、陳麗芬、戴錦周 (2007),「樣本偏誤對財務危機預警模型影響之研究。」 東吳經紀商學學報第五十七期 P.29-47。
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潘玉葉 (1990),「台灣上市公司財務危機分析。」 私立淡江大學管理科學研究所博士論文。