台灣早期嘉南地區之布袋鎮、義竹鄉、學甲鎮與北門鄉等四鄉鎮曾爆發嚴重的烏腳病(Blackfoot Disease，BFD)疫情。此四鄉鎮為國內主要養殖漁塭地區，由於地表水之水源不足，地下水成為主要用水來源，大量抽取地下水的結果，除造成地層下陷及海水入侵問題外，使用含砷地下水養殖漁塭，地下水中砷經由食物鏈的生物累積作用，進入人體而影響健康。本研究使用地質統計中的逐步指標模擬法重現四鄉鎮地下水砷含量之空間分布情況，應用風險評估概念探討在不同風險值TR(10-4~10-6)百分位數50th、75th、95th狀況下，養殖漁塭地下水與地面水合理之使用比例。研究結果顯示TR為10-6風險下建議使用百分位數50th標準進行漁塭地區地下水管理，在此標準下布袋北端與學甲漁塭地區，地下水與地面水使用比例DR值介於0.7至1之間，布袋與義竹南端DR為0.5以下。TR為5×10-6風險下建議使用百分位數75th標準進行漁塭地區之地下水管理，在此標準下布袋南端以及北門DR值大部分都在0.5以下，義竹與學甲DR值則介於0.5至1之間。TR為10-5風險下建議使用百分位數95th標準進行漁塭地區之地下水管理，在此標準下布袋及義竹南端與北門DR值大部分為0.5以下，其他地區DR值則介於0.5至1之間。而TR為5×10-5與10-4風險值過大，因此不建議以此風險值訂定地下水管理標準。根據本研究結果，建議訂定TR為10-5風險並使用95th標準進行漁塭地區地下水管制標準，以達到風險評估之成效，保障民眾的健康。

Blackfoot Disease (BFD) had occurred seriously in the Budai, Yijhu, Shiuejia, and Beimen townships of Chia-Nan District of Taiwan in the early days.These four townships are the districts of fishpond cultivation domestically in Taiwan. Groundwater becomes the main water supply because of short income in surface water. The problems of over pumping in groundwater may not only result in land subsidence and seawater intrusion but also be harmful to the health of human giving rise to the bioaccumulation via food chain in groundwater with arsenic. This research use Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS) of Geostatistical method to reproduce the spatial arsenic distribution of groundwater contaminated in the above four townships. At the same time, risk assessment is applied to probe the utilization ratio of using surface and groundwater for fish farming in the range of target cancer risk (TR) especially on the magnitude of 10-4~10-6 orders in association within the 50th、75th and 95th percentage. The results of this study suggest that groundwater management of fishpond cultivation should be recommanded that firstly under the magnitude of 10-6 order of TR by the 50th percentage of the dilution ratio (DR) is 0.7 to 1 in northern Budai and Shiuejia, and is less than 0.5 in Budai and southern Yijhu, secondly under the magnitude of 5×10-6 order of TR by the 75th percentage of the DR is less than 0.5 in southern Budai and Beimen as well as DR is 0.5 to 1 in Yijhu and Shiuejia and lastly under the magnitude of 10-5 order of TR by the 95th percentage of the DR is less than 0.5 in Budai, southern Yijhu and Beimen, as well as the DR is 0.5 to 1 in other area. The TR is too large to use 5×10-5 and 10-4 to be the standard of groundwater management. According to this study, we suggest that proceeding groundwater management of fishpond cultivation under the magnitude of 10-5 order of TR by the 95th percentage of the DR is to achieve the effect of risk assessment, and ensure public health.

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