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研究生： 蔡凱如
Cai, Kai-Ru
論文名稱： 管理者預測特性與負債成本
Management Forecast Characteristics and Cost of Debt
指導教授： 邱正仁
Chiu, Cheng-Jen
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年： 2011
畢業學年度： 100
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 38
中文關鍵詞： 管理者預測 、預測特性 、揭露 、負債成本 、債權人 、資訊不對稱
外文關鍵詞： Management forecasts, Forecasts characteristics, Disclosures, Cost of debt, Bondholders, Information asymmetry
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    • 本研究預期公司若有較高的資訊揭露，可降低公司的債務融資成本。因此我們將探討管理者盈餘預測發行與特性與負債資金成本之關係。其中我們共包括877 筆美國上市公司的債務發行之資料，資料期間為1998 年至2010 年。
    本研究發現公司若有發行管理者盈餘預測，以及發行正確性較高、頻率較高、精準度較高的預測，皆可有效降低公司的負債成本，因投資者可得到更多有關未來盈餘的資訊；另外，若管理者發布年盈餘預測，也可有效降低公司債務成本，但若公司僅發行季盈餘預測，並無法有效降低公司債務融資成本。
    由於債務融資對於美國上市公司而言是重要的融資管道之一，本研究對公司管理者及外部債權人將具有指標作用。透過管理者盈餘預測降低資訊不對稱之問題。

    This study expects that more informative disclosures can lower the firms‟ financing cost and we test whether issuing of management earnings forecasts and their characteristics
    influence the cost of debt. The data consist of 877 bond issue in the U.S. firms over 1998 to 2010 periods.
    We suggest that firms issue management forecasts have a lower cost of debt, and more accurate, more frequent, and more precise forecasts also can lower the debt financing cost because investors can have more information about future earnings. In addition, we find that annual forecasts can lower the cost of debt. But quarterly forecasts didn‟t have a significant effect on the cost of debt comparing with non-forecasting firms.
    Because debt financing is an important external financing type for publicly traded firms, the results will have implication for managers and bondholders. Management earnings forecasts can reduce the information asymmetry between insiders and outsiders.

    Contents 1. Introduction 1 2. Literature Review 3 3. Hypothesis Development 6 3.1 The Management Forecast Issues and the Cost of Debt 6 3.2 The Characteristics of Management Forecast and the Cost of Debt 8 3.2.1 The Forecast Frequency and the Cost of Debt 9 3.2.2 The Forecast Precision and the Cost of Debt 9 3.2.3 The Forecast Type (Annual vs. Quarterly) and the Cost of Debt 10 4. Data and Methodology 10 4.1 Empirical Model and Methodology 11 4.2 Variable Definition 11 4.2.1 The Management Earnings Forecasts 11 4.2.2 The Cost of Debt Capital 13 4.2.3 Control Variables 14 4.3 Data and Sample Selection 16 5. Empirical Results 17 5.1 Descriptive Statistic Analysis 17 5.2 The Forecast Issuances and the Cost of Debt 18 5.3 The Characteristics of Forecasts and the Cost of Debt 20 5.3.1 The Forecast Frequency and the Cost of Debt 20 5.3.2 The Forecast Precision and the Cost of Debt 20 5.3.3 The Forecast Type (Annual vs. Quarterly) and the Cost of Debt 20 6. Sensitivity Test 21 6.1 Two Stage Model 21 6.2 Other Robustness Checks 23 7. Conclusions 23 References 36 Table of Contents Table 1 Descriptive Statistics 25 Table 2 Correlations 27 Table 3 Regression Analyses on the Effect of Forecast Issuance and Forecast Accuracy on the Cost of Debt 31 Table 4 Regression Analyses on the Effect of Forecast Frequency and Forecast Precision on the Cost of Debt 32 Table 5 Regression Analyses on the Effect of Forecast Type (Annual or Quarterly) on the Cost of Debt 33 Table 6 Two-stage Least-squares (2SLS) Estimation 34 Table 7 Regression Analyses on the Effect of Forecast Issuing and Characteristics on the Cost of Debt-2SLS 35

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