| 研究生: |
曾唯愷 Zeng, Wei-Kai |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
分析師是否受國外市場情緒影響? Are Analysts Affected by Foreign Investor Sentiment? |
| 指導教授: |
梁少懷
Liang, Shao-Huai |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 財務金融研究所 Graduate Institute of Finance |
| 論文出版年: | 2022 |
| 畢業學年度: | 110 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 21 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 國外投資人情緒 、分析師推薦 、市場調整週轉率 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | foreign investor sentiment, analyst’s recommendation, market adjusted turnover rate |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:100 下載:0 |
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當提及投資者情緒時,大多數的文獻都集中在國內市場情緒。然而,由於台灣的股票市場相比於紐約證券交易所等大型市場而言相對較小,因此外國投資者在台灣股市中扮演著重要角色。一般來說,吸引更多國內外投資者的大公司通常也擁有大量的分析師追隨者,所以我們好奇國外市場情緒是否會通過他們對台股的影響來影響分析師的報告(如:評價)。本文選擇了五個代理變量,並使用主成分分析(PCA)來構建外國投資者情緒,來衡量分析師在不同的國外情緒下的反應。這五個變量包括外資凈匯入資金(NIRFI)、標準化市場周轉率(NTOR)、外資買賣差(BSI)、put-call ratio(PCR)和外資未平倉量(NPOI),這些變數分別來自外匯、股票、選擇權和期貨市場。為了進一步消除總體經濟因素,本文依造 Connolly和Stivers(2003)的方法使用市場調整週轉率(MRTO)來消除總體因素。我們的結果顯示,當外國投資者在早期情緒高漲時,分析師的建議往往是偏向樂觀的。這一發現表明,一般投資者可以通過觀察外國投資者在四個國內市場的行動來評估外國投資者的情緒水平。一旦一般投資者認為目前國外市場情緒過熱高,他們在接下來的時期應該對分析師的建議更加謹慎。
When it comes to investor sentiment, most of literature focuses on the domestic level. However, since Taiwan's stock market is quite small compared to the large markets, foreign investors have great impact on domestic market. In general, large companies attracting more domestic and foreign investors usually own lots of analyst followers, so we wonder how foreign investor sentiment influence analyst’s report through their impact on the Taiwan’s stock market. This paper selects five proxy variables to and use principal component analysis (PCA) to construct foreign investors sentiment and measure how analyst react under different foreign sentiment. The five variables include net inward remittance of foreign investor (NIRFI), normalized turnover rate (NTOR), buy-sell imbalance (BSI), put-call ratio (PCR) and net positions on open interest of foreign investor (NPOI) from four market, which are foreign, stock, option and future market, respectively. To further eliminate macroeconomic factors and access pure index, this paper uses market-adjusted turnover rate (MRTO) to drop the macro effect, which is followed Connolly and Stivers (2003)’ method. Our results show that analysts' recommendations tend to be optimistic when foreign investor sentiment is high in the early period. This finding suggests that the general investor can assess the level of foreign investor sentiment by observing the actions of foreign investors in the four domestic markets. Once the general investor identifies a period of high sentiment, they should be more cautious about analysts' recommendations in the following period.
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校內:不公開