都市洪水已成為 21 世紀全球面臨重大挑戰之一，由於快速都市化與氣候變遷導致洪水風險急遽升高。傳統洪水風險管理主要依賴防洪堤防與排水系統等結構性工程措施，降低災害發生頻率與減輕災損。然而，都市化進程導致不透水層面積大幅增加，進而加劇逕流量；此外，氣候變遷亦導致極端降雨事件頻率與強度上升，導致降雨強度經常超出現有設計標準，皆已凸顯出傳統防洪措施在面對氣候變遷挑戰時侷限性。
再者，「堤防效應（Levee Effect）」相關研究指出，堤防等結構性防洪設施促使居民與政府產生虛假安全感，使得土地開發管制與使用規範遭到忽視，導致易淹水地區快速開發，增加整體暴露風險；若一旦極端降雨事件超出保護標準，便可能引發更加嚴重之社會經濟損失。因此，近年來洪水風險管理領域逐漸重視「剩餘洪水風險」（Residual Flood Risk），即在已有防護措施下仍存在之風險。然儘管既有相關研究已探討設法減輕超越保護標準剩餘風險，卻多忽視結構性防洪措施後，伴隨激增土地開發壓力下所產生土地開發與洪水風險管理間矛盾。
綜上所述，本研究從堤坊效應觀點出發，以空間規劃角度探討土地使用管理策略對剩餘洪水風險之影響，並選定新北市五股區作為研究範圍，該區堤防高度自原6公尺提升至10公尺。首先，透過CA-Markov模擬2035年土地利用變遷，並結合SOBEK一二維淹水模式，模擬在氣候變遷RCP8.5情境下實施新增防洪排水工程前後淹水潛勢範圍變化，分析未來洪水暴露面積與經濟損失。並進一步模擬多種土地管理策略情境，包括低衝擊開發、洪水風險區開發限制與綠地保留措施，探討其對降低剩餘洪水風險之差異。最後，綜合各情境下所減少風險損失，納入防洪設施設置成本與土地使用限制產生機會成本，進行整體成效評估比較。
成果顯示，五股區於堤防加高與抽水設施後，儘管淹水範圍與深度減少，然隨快速都市發展下，整體長期洪水暴露面積與風險損失仍顯著增加，反映出堤防效應下土地使用管理重要性。此外，低衝擊開發措施雖減洪效果有限，但在不影響既有土地開發利益下仍具相對高成效；而採取風險區開發限制，能避免人口與財產暴露，為達成長期洪水風險管理關鍵條件，惟需考量伴隨極高土地開發限制機會成本，故建議未來可依照洪水頻率分析搭配適當土地使用管理策略。整體而言，本研究證實易淹水地區落實適當土地管制，俾能有效管理餘洪水風險，以因應氣候變遷與快速土地開挑戰，達到兼顧都市永續與安全發展願景。

This study examined residual flood risk in Wugu District, New Taipei City, by assessing the combined effects of enhanced structural flood control standards and projected land-use and land-cover changes through 2035. LULC transitions were modeled using the CA–Markov model, while flood inundation simulations were conducted with the SOBEK 1D/2D hydrodynamic model. Results indicated that although engineered measures, such as levee heightening and pumping stations, reduced short-term risk, they contributed to long-term increases in flood exposure and damage, particularly in commercial zones.
Six land-use management scenarios were evaluated. Among them, Scenario 6 (Integrated Strategy II) and Scenario 3 (Flood Risk Control) most effectively reduced flood damage under both 100- and 200-year return periods, with projected losses falling below the 2015 baseline. Scenario 2 (Low-Impact Development), while achieving the lowest absolute reduction in damage, demonstrated the highest cost-efficiency under the 100-year return period, as it avoided opportunity costs associated with development restrictions. However, its effectiveness extremely declined under more extreme rainfall conditions.
These findings highlighted the trade-off between flood mitigation and urban growth. While restrictive spatial planning proved effective in risk reduction, it incurred substantial opportunity costs. The study concluded that balanced land-use strategies are essential for achieving long-term flood resilience in rapidly urbanizing areas under climate change.

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