近年來全球能源產業受化石能源儲存量逐漸耗竭、能源價格高漲以及因應京都議定書對溫室氣體排放限制等永續性問題產生劇烈變動。再生能源擁有潔淨、溫室氣體低排放及能源自產的優點，目前各國政府皆積極推廣其開發。

再生能源開發因其目前尚未成熟的研發技術，需要評估高投資的風險，其中太陽能光電是近年來具研發潛力的再生能源，可藉助有效的激勵政策以提供消費者評估太陽能成本效益，進而達成太陽能市場擴散的目標。

擴散模型經常描繪於新科技或新技術的變化，本研究結合擅長處理動態複雜系統且以回饋控制理論為基礎的「系統動態學」做為研究方法與工具，並以Bass擴散模型為理論基礎結合太陽能的影響變數，嘗試建構具經濟誘因的保證收購電價(Feed –In Tariff, FIT)政策對於安裝太陽能的住宅消費者與企業消費者之動態模型。

本研究著重於太陽能政策推動與太陽能安裝系統的擴散速度之相關變化，模擬不同系統變數對於系統行為之影響。其中德國為推廣太陽能系統相當成功的國家，2004年通過「再生能源法」後給予太陽能產業大額優惠補助，是近年來太陽能市場大幅成長的主因。本研究將以德國的保證電價收購政策做為建構模型的依據，經由修正與試誤模型以確認模擬結果並檢討方案效益，以期提供政策制定者在經濟誘因下的策略性思考。

Due to the gradual depletion of fossil energy storage, the energy price is rising rapidly. Also Kyoto Protocol Agreement cut on the emission, the global energy industry has a dramatic change in recent years. In contrast, renewable energy has the advantages of clean, lower greenhouse emissions and self-production; many countries are devoted to the R&D of Renewable energy.

Because of the production technique of Renewable energy is still not at mature level, the investment of developing Renewable energy need to be reevaluated. However, recent years, the solar energy industry is one of the high potential renewable energy can be developed. By incentive policy, it can encourage consumers use cost-benefit assessment to reevaluate the benefit of solar energy, and achieve the goal of popularize the solar energy market.

The Diffusion model is often depicted on the new technological changes. This study used system dynamics as the research methods and tools which is good at dealing with complex dynamic systems and to feedback control theory, attempts to build a FIT policy for the installation of solar domestic consumers and business customers the dynamic model.

This study focus on the policy of the solar installation solar system related to changes in the proliferation of speed to simulate different system elements of the system behaviors.Solar energy industry has been quite successful in German. After German government passed “Renewable Energy Law” in 2004, it provides financial subsidy to solar energy, which also caused the huge growth of solar industry. This study use fit policy as the basic to build a system dynamics model, and try to experiment and improve the model to provide policy-makers a strategic thinking under the financial incentives.

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