能源是推動社會進步和人類賴以生存的基礎，隨著經濟發展、人口增加與生活水準的提升，我們也愈依賴能源的使用。近百年來，全球能源消耗平均每年以3%的速度遞增，未來隨著世界人口的增加和社會生活的進步，全世界能源消耗將以更快的速度增長。大量能源的消耗也對應產生許多環境問題，諸如全球暖化、氣候變遷與生態破壞等，皆有可能影響到人類未來的生存及生活，因此各國莫不積極期望朝向低排碳、高效率的使用資源方式邁進。
根據國際能源總署IEA（2010）報告指出，為達到2050年降低430億噸二氧化碳排放的方法，包括有碳捕捉與封存、新能源、核能發電、發電效率改變以及能源使用效率提升等。其中新能源發展佔了17%，顯見其有重要的影響力，且新能源除了能減少碳排放外，亦可發展厚植新產業發展，達到經濟成長的目標。
政府在新能源的發展中扮演著重要的角色，主要以提供新能源發電項目的資金補助與制定各種有利的發展措施，輔以資助相關技術的研究與開發等，但由於缺乏一完整的市場機制，加上傳統電力的環境成本並未完全地計算在電力價格中，造成新能源所產生的電力與傳統能源電力相比之下缺乏競爭優勢，相對也使得新能源的發展產生了極大的阻礙。且每一種新科技或新技術在發展初期，往往充滿著許多不確定性與風險，造成未來發展性與適用性不易確認，而新能源技術更是如此。因此如何有效的運用政府政策，發展適合的新能源，將資源作一有效地分配，以達成兼顧經濟成長、環境保護與能源安全的目標，實為一重要的課題。
總結而論，本研究的研究目的包括以下三點：
1. 分析新能源電力發展政策：分析我國與世界主要國家發展新能源歷程與相關的政策規劃，以利模型參數設定，並作為策略擬定之參考依據。
2. 評估新能源發電成本：依據台灣目前現況與政策發展，推估新能源未來發展成本趨勢，了解在現行制度下，未來台灣新能源發展趨勢與價格走向，以利模型參數設定，及作為政府制定能源政策之參考依據。
3. 新能源電力政策效益評價：以實質選擇權理論為基礎，考量影響政策效益變動的不確定性因素（參數），評價新能源電力發展政策所能帶來的實質政策價值，以避免政府財政支出造成無謂的浪費，提供政府衡量目前政策實施效益與成效判斷。
本研究顯示，直至2030年發展風力發電所帶來的政策效益價值為2,522百萬元，太陽能發電的政策效益為-8,755百萬元，廢棄物發電的政策價值為8,727百萬元，燃料電池發電政策效益價值為-35,340百萬元。當運用實質選擇權模式做為判斷依據時，能將未來的不確定性納入考量，顯示政策規劃的真正價值，亦能正確判斷政策施行的可行性與估算政策效益價值。

Due to energy depletion and global warming, the development of green industry has become a major energy policy issue and seeks to achieve the goals of energy conservation and reduction of carbon emissions. But nowadays, new and renewable energy (RE) investment was still not to achieve the cost-benefit. Therefore, the government must assess the return on investment of its policies in order to determine the effectiveness of those policies. Thus, the development policy of new energy industry would not only yield economic and environmental benefits, but also positively impact new energy policy planning.

This study presents a value evaluation model that integrates learning curve model and grey forecasting model on new and renewable energy technologies into real option analysis (ROA) methods. The proposed model evaluates quantitatively the policy value provided by developing new and renewable energy in the face of uncertain fossil fuel prices and new and renewable energy policy-related factors. The economic intuition underlying the policy-making process is elucidated, while empirical analysis illustrates the option value embedded in the current development policy in Taiwan for new and renewable energy. In addition, the study employs learning curve to explore the learning effect of power generation, and examines whether firms can actually boost power generation cost efficiency through government subsidies and R&D. Due to the difficulty of obtaining data, the grey system is used to ease data collection difficulties.

In summary, the proposed policy value evaluation model measures uncertainty and other factors affecting new and renewable energy industry development policy. The evaluation model can shed light on the value of policy implementation. Additionally, the proposed model can forecast cost efficiencies of new technologies when available data are limited, especially in the case of new and renewable energy technologies.

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網站
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2. 日本太陽能光電協會，http://www.j-pec.or.jp/
3. 台灣電力公司，http://www.taipower.com.tw/
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