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研究生: 梁正賢
Liang, Zheng-Xian
論文名稱: 鐵路災害救援緊急搶救─以台鐵為例
Rescue Relief Distribution of Railway Disaster
指導教授: 鄭永祥
Cheng, Yung-Hsiang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 交通管理科學系
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science
論文出版年: 2009
畢業學年度: 97
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 87
中文關鍵詞: 災害搶救管理災害物資供應鏈模糊派翠網路模糊多目標規劃
外文關鍵詞: Fuzzy Petri Nets, Multi-objective programming, Disaster rescue management, Disaster resource supply chain
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  • 由於軌道運輸逐漸受到重視,除了高鐵以外,捷運等軌道運輸也逐漸蓬勃發展。軌道運輸之特性在於速度快,且運量大。這些特性導致了,一旦系統發生事故,則往往傷亡慘重,並且對營運層面的影響極大。如何妥善評估並且規劃鐵路事故救災策略以及資源配置,應該會是重要的。
    到目前為止,鐵路救災之權責單位,如旅客面的醫療救治是各地方醫療單位之救護車輛進行輸送。人員搶救以及火災衍生之預防需要地方消防人員之協助。災區秩序維護以及交通管制需要警方的幫助。而鐵路系統之搶修需要鐵路專業人員之技術。由此發現,鐵路事故的搶救牽涉到許多不同救援單位之合作以及協調,才能夠將災害所帶來的損害予以排除,讓系統回復到正常營運。因此,如何進行救災策略之制定,本模式利用派翠網路以及模糊理論建構鐵路事故專家搶救決策系統,以得知如何制定鐵路搶救之策略。
    另外由於救援物資具有投資成本大,且希望達成救援運輸時間短之兩矛盾問題。如何評估系統救援之救援能力,以適度增加救援資源並且使得救援資源分配可以避免過度集中或者分配不均的情況,應該是未來可以改進的空間。
    本研究除了進行實際案例之驗證比較以外,也將針對鐵路災害之特性,例如可及性問題等進行模式推演。此外也利用情境模擬以及敏感度分析方式,找出鐵路救災之特性以及了解模式本身對於鐵路救災特性之適用性。

    This research combines an expert rescue decision system with a rescue resources dispatching model under a railway accident. Minimizing the total rescue dispatching time and minimizing the total rescue expense are two major programming objectives to determine the optimal rescue resources dispatching and rescue resources preparation.

    An empirical study on the real railway accident of Taiwan Railway Administration shows the effectiveness of the model. The case study includes different scenario of railway accident and tries to test if the system has enough rescue capability.

    Result suggests that in order to achieve the most efficient rescue investment and rescue activity performance, the planning of the rescue system should be evaluated during the system operation time.

    目錄 I 圖目錄 III 表目錄 IV 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景與動機 1 1.2 研究內容與目的 2 1.3 研究架構 3 1.4 研究範圍與對象 5 第二章 文獻回顧 6 2.1 災害以及事故搶救之相關文獻回顧 6 2.1.1 小結 9 2.2 模糊派翠理論之相關文獻回顧 10 2.2.1 小結 11 2.3 搶救物資之數學模式相關文獻回顧 11 2.3.1 小結 18 第三章 建構模式 20 3.1 模糊理論 ( Fuzzy theory ) 20 3.1.1 歸屬度函數 20 3.2 派翠網路理論(Petri Nets) 23 3.3 網路流量規劃 30 3.3.1 本模式之參數介紹 30 第四章 資料蒐集 35 4.1 資料內容 35 4.2 基本資料 35 4.3 各資源之運輸概估時間以及資源配置量資料 35 4.3.1 醫院救援能量 35 4.3.2 救護車之救援能量 36 4.3.3 各消防隊之救援能量 37 4.4.4 各警局派出所之救援能量 38 4.4.5 宜蘭地區客運站所能派遣之救援能量 39 4.4.6 台鐵可派遣至事故現場進行搶救之救援能量 40 第五章 結果分析 41 5.1 建構列車調度之模糊派翠網路 41 5.1.1 建構列車調度之歸屬度函數 46 5.1.2 災害調度之模擬 49 5.2 構建模糊需求模式 50 5.3 建構模糊最佳化最小旅行時間以及最小成本模型 53 5.3.1 軌道事故災害問題之特性 53 5.3.2 軌道事故資源供應鏈模式 54 5.3.3 模糊雙目標規劃求解模式修正 55 5.4 實際案例模式求解結果分析 57 5.5 可及性問題分析 62 5.6 情境模擬分析說明 68 5.7 敏感度分析 71 第六章 結論與建議 73 6.1 結論與建議 73 6.2 學術貢獻 75 6.3 實務貢獻 75 6.4 後續研究方向 76 英文參考文獻 77

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