本研究旨在探討新冠疫情的衝擊之下，銀行產業的過度自信經理人相較於一般經理人，是否存在貸款供給的差異。本研究蒐集2019~2021美國公開發行銀行的季資料，並以銀行經理人的持股變動作為衡量過度自信的基準。實證分析以DID模型進行，探討疫情爆發及經濟復甦兩個不同時段，銀行貸款供給的變化。實證結果發現：(1)過度自信經理人在疫情期間並不會有較差的經營績效。(2)過度自信經理人貸款供給成長率明顯高於一般經理人，兩者放貸差距會因為疫情爆發而縮小，在經濟逐漸復甦後則維持不變，在參考行為財務相關文獻後，發現放貸差距的變動可能和經理人的風險偏好相關。有別於以往的經濟危機，本研究認為自然災害所帶來的衝擊可能影響到經理人的風險偏好，使得過度自信經理人的貸款供給成長率有別於一般經理人。對於政策制定者來說，銀行貸款供給是影響經濟穩定的重要因素，必須留意經理人的過度自信對貸款意願的影響。

This study focuses on the relationship between overconfident CEOs and loan supply during the Covid-19 pandemic period. We investigate whether the loan supply from overconfident CEOs differs from that of normal CEOs. We collect data from U.S. public banks from 2019 to 2021 and use the position held by each bank CEO to simulate the degree of overconfidence. The empirical results are obtained using a Difference-in-Difference model, and we classify our sample into three periods: pre-pandemic, post-pandemic, and economic recovery, to examine the variation in loan supply differences. The empirical results reveal that (1) overconfident CEOs do not have poorer performance than normal CEOs during the pandemic, and (2) overconfident CEOs tend to provide higher loans than normal CEOs, with the loan difference being variable. The loan difference decreases after the outbreak of the pandemic and then remains constant during the economic recovery. The recession in 2020 was caused by Covid-19 rather than traditional economic incidents, suggesting a potentially different impact pathway. Referring to behavioral papers, we attribute the variation in loan difference to the shift in CEOs' risk preferences. In terms of public implications, overconfidence in the banking industry could introduce uncertainty to the stability of market liquidity, which authorities should be aware of.

Alves, N., Bonfim, D., & Soares, C. (2021). Surviving the perfect storm: The role of the lender of last resort [Article]. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 47, 14, Article 100918. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2021.100918
Berger, A. N., Black, L. K., Bouwman, C. H. S., & Dlugosz, J. (2017). Bank loan supply responses to Federal Reserve emergency liquidity facilities. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 32, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2017.02.002
Cameron, L., & Shah, M. (2015). Risk-Taking Behavior in the Wake of Natural Disasters. Journal of Human Resources, 50(2), 484-515. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.50.2.484
Campbell, T. C., Gallmeyer, M., Johnson, S. A., Rutherford, J., & Stanley, B. W. (2011). CEO optimism and forced turnover. Journal of Financial Economics, 101(3), 695-712. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.03.004
Colak, G., & Oztekin, O. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on bank lending around the world. Journal of Banking & Finance, 133, Article 106207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106207
Cubillas, E., Ferrer, E., & Suarez, N. (2021). Does investor sentiment affect bank stability? International evidence from lending behavior. Journal of International Money and Finance, 113, Article 102351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102351
Danso, A., Lartey, T., Amankwah-Amoah, J., Adomako, S., Lu, Q. Y., & Uddin, M. (2019). Market sentiment and firm investment decision-making. International Review of Financial Analysis, 66, Article 101369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2019.06.008
Demirguc-Kunt, A., Pedraza, A., & Ruiz-Ortega, C. (2021). Banking sector performance during the COVID-19 crisis. Journal of Banking & Finance, 133, Article 106305. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106305
Dursun-de Neef, H. O. (2019). The Transmission of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from House Prices. Review of Finance, 23(3), 629-658. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfy001
Francis, N., Jackson, L. E., & Owyang, M. T. (2018). Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery after Recessions. Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 50(4), 675-704. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12477
Heaton, J. B. (2002). Managerial optimism and corporate finance. Financial Management, 31(2), 33-45. https://doi.org/10.2307/3666221
Ho, P. H., Huang, C. W., Lin, C. Y., & Yen, J. F. (2016). CEO overconfidence and financial crisis: Evidence from bank lending and leverage. Journal of Financial Economics, 120(1), 194-209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2015.04.007
Hoang, K., Arif, M., & Nguyen, C. (2022). Corporate investment and government policy during the COVID-19 crisis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 80, 677-696. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2022.03.005
Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2005). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. Journal of Finance, 60(6), 2661-2700. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00813.x
Puri, M., Rocholl, J., & Steffen, S. (2011). Global retail lending in the aftermath of the US financial crisis: Distinguishing between supply and demand effects. Journal of Financial Economics, 100(3), 556-578. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2010.12.001
Temesvary, J., & Banai, A. (2017). The drivers of foreign bank lending in Central and Eastern Europe: The roles of parent, subsidiary and host market traits. Journal of International Money and Finance, 79, 157-173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.08.005