中文摘要
房地產在都會區一直以來都被視為保值商品，雖然房地產變現不易，但是由於其長期看漲的趨勢，以及台灣獨特的課稅機制，導致其成為投資增值與資產配置的熱門選擇。2008年金融風暴以來，許多投資客紛紛將資金從股票市場轉移到房地產市場。再加上中央銀行調降利率以及政府調降遺贈稅的影響，都會區房價就不斷攀升。政府為有效抑制房價的上漲，並且有效管理房地產交易市場，分別在2011年推行奢侈稅以及2012年實行房價實價登錄制度，來降低房價受到投資行為的影響。然而從歷史資料來看，房價攀升的趨勢並未受到政府政策的推行而有所遲緩。台灣目前除了北高兩市的房價高居不下之外，五都當中經貿活動較不熱絡的台南市今年來的房價也不斷攀升。比對台南市人口緩慢成長的趨勢，其房地產交易市場的熱絡明顯來自其他因素。因此本研究為了解目前房價市場的動態行為，同時分析相關政府政策對於市場交易量以及價格的影響程度，運用系統動態學建立住宅動態系統。此系統考量都市人口、住宅供給、住宅需求、住宅價格以及投資行為等子系統，同時以台南市2004年到2013年間統計資料為基礎來進行模擬與分析。透過此一動態系統，本研究將目前台南市房價主要影響因素歸納在利率的調降所帶來的投資需求，並且從模擬結果證實過去五年間的波動主要是調降利率帶動之投資需求。另一方面，政府預計在2015年實行房地合一課稅政策，預期將對房地產市場掀起一大波瀾。本研究以此作為依據，對於未來10年台南市房價受到此政策之影響進行探討，並歸納趨勢以供未來對於房地產投資之參考依據。
關鍵字：系統動態學、房地產價格、投資分析、政策分析

Extended Abstract
Using System Dynamics to Simulate the Metropolitan Estate Prices against the investment willing in Tainan City

Author: Peng-Chuan Wang
Advisor: Hsin-Hong Kang
Executive Master of Business Administration

SUMMARY

The real estate is usually regarded as a hedging commodity in metropolis. Although the real estate is uneasy to be sold and to turn into money, it is still a popular choice for investment and asset allocation with the Taiwan's unique taxation mechanism. Essentially, the real estate market is dynamic, and has a causal effect and feedback relationship. In other words, this market entails dynamic complexity, which can best be tackled with system dynamics. As such, this study is a simulation of the system dynamic model to explore the factors affecting fluctuation of real estate prices in the market under the interactions of supply, demand, and prices, and the effect of such change. This model is an attempt to solve problems deriving from the real estate market. Furthermore, government policy is a vital factor affecting the dynamics of the real estate market. This study also simulates the possible trend affected by government policy to demonstrate the real estate price change.

Key words: System dynamics, real estate price, investment analysis, policy simulation.

INTRODUCTION
The key motivation of the study is to provide a reference base for people who wants to invest the real estate and for the constructer who have will to join the real estate market. The research framework of this study is based on the theory of the system dynamics which provides a causal feedback loop and reasonable policy simulation. Therefore, we analyze the real estate market in Tainan City and propose a house-pricing model. The model is verified by the history data from 2004 to 2013 for the reliability and validity of the model. Furthermore, the government estate policy is verified in this model and provides a future forecast trend. The relevant discussions of the real estate investment are also made in this article.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
The main conception of this research is to propose a house-pricing model by system dynamics. System dynamics is a powerful methodology and computer simulation modeling technique for framing, understanding, and discussing complex issues and problems. Originally developed in the 1950s to help corporate managers improve their understanding of industrial processes, system dynamics is currently being used throughout the public and private sector for policy analysis and design. This study focuses on the real estate market in Tainan City, and analyzes the historical data to illustrate the price variation. The research structure is as follow:
1. Collect the related data of the estate market in Tainan City
2. Establish the house-pricing model
3. Verify the model by comparing with historical data
4. Modify the model to fit the real situation
5. Simulate the possible effect of the government policy
6. Conclude the result based on the simulation
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The result of the model shows that the real estate market is mainly influenced by the investing requirement. The further analysis in bank rate is displayed in Figure 2. The result shows that the real estate market becomes prosperous when the rate is decreasing.

CONCLUSION
The simulation result illustrates the situation of real estate in Tainan City. We find the critical factor that leads the estate market during last decades is bank rate. The Central Bank of the Republic of China decreased the loan rate in 2009 and indirectly contributed the growth of the real estate. The government policy did not work as expected. The future estate policy should put emphasis on the modification of the tax institution.

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