二十世紀以來，許多發展到一定程度的都市開始出現人口減少、經濟衰退的情形， 對於過去以成長為導向的規劃方式帶來衝擊，國際上將這樣的現象稱之為萎縮城市 (Shrinking Cities)。同樣的問題也發生在台灣，根據行政院主計處統計，台灣於西 元 2020 年開始首度出現總人口負成長的現象，人口衰退成為將來規劃時要面對的首 要課題。萎縮現象不只發生在都市，鄉村地區同樣也出現衰退的趨勢，且由於城鄉發 展不均、資源往都市集中，使得鄉村地區人口、產業流失的問題更為嚴重。
過去台灣探討萎縮現象的研究多以城市地區為主，本研究希望進一步聚焦於鄉村 地區的萎縮衰退情形;另一方面，過去因應非都市土地規劃上的不足，政府提出過許 多鄉村振興的政策，再加上國土計畫實施後的鄉村地區整體規劃，及國家發展委員會 推動的地方創生均如火如荼地開展中，因此本研究希望探究鄉村地區的萎縮狀態為何， 分析過去的振興計畫是否有助於鄉村的發展，是否有資源錯置的情形，以及未來的振 興規劃政策應如何幫助鄉村面對萎縮現象。
本研究以台南市內非都市土地為主的 30 個行政區作為實證地區，將分析過程分 為兩階段，第一階段利用人口結構、社經相關資料，進行軌跡分析了解各行政區鄉村 萎縮狀態變化，並以萎縮指標表現模型及相關性分析探討鄉村人口與產業衰退的關係; 第二階段則透過與專家學者的深度訪談，連結上述分析時在台南市鄉村地區所發現各 行政區不同的萎縮現象，討論過去鄉村規劃上的問題以及未來的振興計畫應如何更符 合鄉村需求。
實證結果顯示，台南市鄉村地區人口持續下降，城鄉差距不斷擴大，離市中心愈 遠，人口萎縮情形愈嚴重。部分振興政策投入大量資源的行政區，人口及產業仍持續 在萎縮，其投入的計畫面向多以景觀改造、硬體工程為主，顯示出這類的計畫在短期 間內對於鄉村振興的效果有限;另一方面，部分人口嚴重萎縮的地區，其產業表現反 而仍在蓬勃發展，顯示出人口與經濟成長並非完全掛鉤，在總人口減少的時代，鄉村 未來應轉向追求有品質的發展。就上述資料分析與深度訪談中歸納出專家學者之意見， 整理出後續鄉村地區振興政策應注重的部分包含:
(一) 現階段振興政策對萎縮狀態的影響效果有限，除了硬體建設外，未來應更加 注重軟體面的資訊提供、輔導機制。
(二) 新型態農業結合觀光的農業旅遊是未來鄉村地區發展特色產業之重要利基。
(三) 傳統產業加值轉型、培養可長期發展的在地產業是減緩鄉村萎縮的重要因素。
透過以上研究發現，建議未來若能以正向的態度面對鄉村地區的萎縮現象，導入 各項規劃策略彌補非都市土地長期缺乏計畫指導之情形，提升鄉村自明性，支持鄉村 地區實際的需求，更有效率地投注規劃資源，將能夠成為重新檢視鄉村空間規劃的新 契機，達到鄉村的永續發展。

Due to demographic changes and industrial transformation caused by globalization, many cities in developed countries are facing the shrinking phenomenon. Which means, a densely populated urban area is undergoing population decrease, economic recession and caused less attraction of the city. Many works of literature have discussed how planning policies dealing with urban shrinkage conditions. In addition to urban areas, many small towns and rural areas are also facing out-migration, resulting in a rural decline.
Past studies have found that some cities in Taiwan have emerged from the demographic contraction processes and industrial recession. The shrinking phenomenon in Taiwan mainly comes from internal migrations of rural areas, where people flow to more competitive cities. However, there is still a lack of knowledge about rural shrinkage and corresponding strategies in Taiwan.
Hence, this article aims to clarify the mismatch between the revitalization strategies and the socio-economic situation after 2000, and selects Tainan as the research object.
The first phase of the study will identify the shrinkage characteristics and trajectories among selected rural districts in Tainan. Subsequently, through interviews with experts and scholars, understand the shrinkage of these regions and the problems of past revitalization strategies.
The conducted research shows that the population decline is more serious in the areas farther from the city center. On the other hand, some districts that have invested a lot of resources in the revitalization policy, the population and industry are still shrinking, and their investment items are mostly landscape renovation or hardware engineering, which shows the effect of such short-term strategies on rural revitalization are ineffective.
The revitalization strategies should strengthen to enhance the knowhow of local communities instead of investing in a lot of construction.

一、 中文文獻
內政部(2018)。全國國土計畫。取自http://spatialplan.edsdesigngroup.com/data/全國國土計畫（公告實施版）.pdf
內政部(2020)。內政部統計年報。取自https://ws.moi.gov.tw/001/Upload/400/relfile/0/4405/48349492-6f8c-453b-a9d1-4a8f0593b979/year/year.html
內政部營建署(2017)。106年度鄉村地區整體規劃策略及國土功能分區指導原則
內政部營建署(2019)。鄉村地區整體規劃架構及後續執行方式。取自https://www.cpami.gov.tw/filesys/file/rp6/rp1081220.pdf
內政部營建署(2021)。鄉村地區整體規劃問答集。取自https://www.tcd.gov.tw/uploadfile/pj/pj_6_8261623347.pdf
內政部營建署城鄉發展分署(2018)。108 年度直轄市、縣(市)國土計畫之鄉村地區整體規劃示範規劃案期末報告書。取自https://www.tcd.gov.tw/business_view.php?pjid=116&site=news
王俊豪(2004)。歐盟鄉村發展政之演變與展望，《農政與農情》，第144期，http://www.coa.gov.tw/view.php?catid=7439
台南市政府(2014)。擬定臺南市區域計畫
江沛岑(2017)。萎縮城市的再生策略研究-以中興新村為例。(碩士)。國立臺北大學，新北市。取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/x4n37n
行政院主計處(2006)。社會指標系統理論 (Frameworks for social indicators): 行政院主計處
行政院主計總處。普查應用名詞說明。取自https://www.stat.gov.tw/public/Data/9826142814ONHRMIOU.pdf
行政院主計總處(2021)。109 年人口及住宅普查初步統計結果提要分析. 取自https://www.stat.gov.tw/public/Attachment/1112143117MKFOK1MR.pdf
何岳玲(2016)。應用主成份分析探討臺中市都市衰退之研究(碩士)，逢甲大學，台中市。取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/6jj545
吳吉玄(2017)。台灣萎縮性鄉村地區發展社會企業之初探-以台南市為例(碩士)。國立成功大學，台南市。取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/ht297j
吳同權(2017)。農村建設政策。農村政策研究
吳欣穎(2017)。探討台灣本島城市萎縮軌跡(碩士)。國立成功大學，台南市。取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/hkwg32
李永展(2005)。永續鄉村營造之初探。Journal of Chinese Soil and Water Conservation, 36(4), 339-354.
林金定，嚴嘉楓及陳美花(2005)。質性研究方法: 訪談模式與實施步驟分析. 身心障礙研究季刊, 3(2), 122-136.
夏鑄九(1990)。都市過程、都市政策和參與性的都市設計度。中華民國建築學會建築學報, 1, 137~152.
財政部財政資訊中心(2021)。綜合所得稅申報初步核定專冊。取自https://www.fia.gov.tw/WEB/fia/ias/isa108s/ISA108.html#1
張家睿(2015)。萎縮城市、尺度政治與發展治理─以嘉義縣為例(碩士)。國立臺北大學，新北市。取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/egypdr
陳妙雲(2015)。以結構模式探究臺灣都市衰退之影響因子及因應策略(博士)。逢甲大學，台中市。取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/q5xq6p
陳信宏(2014)。縣市升格與區域整併影響之研究-以臺南市為例
陳柏宏(2017)。以防災為導向之都市聰明萎縮管理－以嘉義地區土地使用調適為例(碩士)。國立成功大學，台南市。取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/z7dp2d
游鎔潞(2006)。地方政府推動城鄉新風貌政策執行機制之研究─ 以中和市為例。臺北科技大學建築與都市設計研究所學位論文，1-192.
馮天君(2008)。城鄉風貌計畫實質環境改造成效之研究-以台南市為例.
萬文隆(2004)。深度訪談在質性研究中的應用。生活科技教育月刊, 37(4), 17-23.
葉韋廷(2014)。台灣萎縮城市的發展策略挑戰：以基隆市為例. (碩士)。國立臺北大學，新北市。取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/acdvtz
裘子欣(2020)。城市地方萎縮現象下居民生活品質感知之研究. (碩士)。國立成功大學，台南市。取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/rp6tbc
臺南市政府(2012)。變更六甲都市計畫(第四次通盤檢討)案 (第一階段)說明書。取自http://docs.tnaa.org.tw/main_frame_02_files/city/city02/02-18/1020226-府都規字第1020144325A號變更六甲都市計畫(第四次通盤檢討)案(第一階段).pdf
臺南市政府(2016)。變更關廟都市計畫 (第四次通盤檢討)
臺南市政府(2021)。臺南市國土計畫(核定本)。取自
臺南市政府經濟發展局. (2016). 樹谷園區. 取自https://economic.tainan.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=5148&s=14580
趙子元(2020)。萎縮城市現象與幸福感。台北市，五南。
蔡宏進(2016)。臺灣鄉村的新出路(初版)。台北市，五南。
蔡宜錚(2020)。以地方創生觀點探討鄉村地區產業振興策略之研究
盧俞廷(2020)。台灣萎縮城鄉之時空格局分析(碩士)。國立臺北大學，新北市。取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/9qag4r
簡庭妤(2014)。以人口及產業變遷觀點探討台灣萎縮城市類型之研究(碩士)。國立成功大學，台南市。取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/3nq6p3
章定煊(2020)。台灣空屋數據探討與運用。取自https://www.ncscre.nccu.edu.tw/node/2863
曾宇良, 顏建賢, & 王微(2017)。農業旅遊結合森里川海環境教育旅行推動策略之研究. 農業推廣文彙, 31-46.
曾梓峰(2021)。鄉村 2.0 邁向新世代鄉村整體規劃策略之研究成果報告書.取自https://tech.swcb.gov.tw/Results/ResultsInnovation?Query.ViewType=1&page=6
黃源協, & 劉素珍(2009)。社會資本對台灣社區發展之政策意涵. 行政暨政策學報, 48, 155-192.
饗庭伸, & 林書嫻(2020)。折疊都市 : 從日本的都市規劃實踐經驗,探尋人口減少時代的城市設計和人本生活 (初版 ed.): 臉譜, 城邦文化出版.

二、 外文文獻
Audirac, I., Cunningham‐Sabot, E., Fol, S., & Moraes, S. T. (2012). Declining suburbs in Europe and Latin America. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 36(2), 226-244.
Barasheva, E., Leng, H., Barashev, A., & Bukhtoyarov, V. (2021). Typology of urban shrinkage in Russia: Trajectories of Russian cities. Journal of Urban Planning and Development, 147(4), 05021035.
Barreira, A. P., Nunes, L. C., Guimarães, M. H., & Panagopoulos, T. (2019). Satisfied but thinking about leaving: The reasons behind residential satisfaction and residential attractiveness in shrinking Portuguese cities. International Journal of Urban Sciences, 23(1), 67-87.
Batunova, E., & Gunko, M. (2018). Urban shrinkage: an unspoken challenge of spatial planning in Russian small and medium-sized cities. European Planning Studies, 26(8), 1580-1597.
Beauregard, R. A. (2003). Aberrant Cities: Urban Population Loss in the United States, 1820-1930. Urban Geography, 24(8), 672-690. doi:10.2747/0272-3638.24.8.672
Bowns, C. (2013). Shrinkage happens … in small towns too!: Responding to de-population and loss of place in Susquehanna River Towns. URBAN DESIGN International, 18(1), 61-77. doi:10.1057/udi.2012.27
Caselli, B., Ventura, P., & Zazzi, M. (2020). Performance-based spatial monitoring. An interpretative model for long-term shrinking medium-small Italian towns. Sustainable Cities and Society, 53, 101924. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101924
CIRES, E. C. A. (2016). Cities regrowing smaller–fostering knowledge on regeneration strategies in shrinking cities across Europe (TUD COST Action TU0803). In.
Delken, E. (2008). Happiness in shrinking cities in Germany. Journal of Happiness Studies, 9(2), 213-218.
ESPON (2018). Europe Rural Shrinking Policy. Retrieved from: https://www.espon.eu/sites/default/files/attachments/ESPON%20Policy%20Brief%20on%20Shrinking%20Rural%20Regions.pdf
European Commission (2006). The LEADER Approach-A basic guide. Retrieved from: https://enrd.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/fms/pdf/2B953E0A-9045-2198-8B09-ED2F3D2CCED3.pdf
Großmann, K., Bontje, M., Haase, A., & Mykhnenko, V. (2013). Shrinking cities: Notes for the further research agenda. Cities, 35, 221-225. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2013.07.007
Guimarães, M. H., Nunes, L. C., Barreira, A. P., & Panagopoulos, T. (2016). What makes people stay in or leave shrinking cities? An empirical study from Portugal. European Planning Studies, 24(9), 1684-1708.
Hart, L. G., Larson, E. H., & Lishner, D. M. (2005). Rural Definitions for Health Policy and Research. American Journal of Public Health, 95(7), 1149-1155. doi:10.2105/ajph.2004.042432
Hoekveld, J. J. (2012). Time-space relations and the differences between shrinking regions. Built Environment, 38(2), 179-195.
Hollander, J. B. (2011). Can a city successfully shrink? Evidence from survey data on neighborhood quality. Urban Affairs Review, 47(1), 129-141.
Hollander, J. B., Pallagst, K., Schwarz, T., & Popper, F. J. (2009). Planning shrinking cities. Progress in planning, 72(4), 223-232.
Küpper, P., Kundolf, S., Mettenberger, T., & Tuitjer, G. (2018). Rural regeneration strategies for declining regions: trade-off between novelty and practicability. European Planning Studies, 26(2), 229-255. doi:10.1080/09654313.2017.1361583
Lawrence Neuman, W. (2014). Social research methods: Qualitative and quantitative approaches. In: Pearson.
LI, Y., & SHI, E. (2019). Response Path Adapted to the Unbalanced Shrinkage of Small Towns in Metropolitan Areas.
Liu, C.-Y., Tang, D.-P., & Teng, C.-S. (2019). Taiwan's Population Decline in the Urbanization Process. Modern China Studies, 26(2), 116-140.
Liu, Z., Liu, S., & Song, Y. (2020). Understanding urban shrinkage in China: Developing a multi-dimensional conceptual model and conducting empirical examination from 2000 to 2010. Habitat International, 104, 102256.
Lym, Y. (2021). Exploring dynamic process of regional shrinkage in Ohio: A Bayesian perspective on population shifts at small-area levels. Cities, 115, 103228.
Murgante, B., & Rotondo, F. (2013). A geostatistical approach to measure shrinking cities: the case of Taranto. In Statistical methods for spatial planning and monitoring (pp. 119-142): Springer.
Nefs, M., Alves, S., Zasada, I., & Haase, D. (2013). Shrinking cities as retirement cities? Opportunities for shrinking cities as green living environments for older individuals. Environment and Planning A, 45(6), 1455-1473.
OECD. (2020). Rural Well-being:Geography of Opportunities.
Pallagst, K. (2009). The future of shrinking cities: problems, patterns and strategies of urban transformation in a global context.
Pallagst, K. (2010). The planning research agenda: Shrinking cities—A challenge for planning cultures. The Town Planning Review, 81(5), i-vi.
Pallagst, K., Fleschurz, R., Nothof, S., & Uemura, T. (2021). Shrinking cities: Implications for planning cultures? Urban Studies, 58(1), 164-181.
Peters, D., Fisher, H., & Zarecor, K. (2017). Shrink-Smart Small Towns: Communities can still thrive as they lose population.
Pirisi, G., & Trócsányi, A. (2014). SHRINKING SMALL TOWNS IN HUNGARY: THE FACTORS BEHIND THE URBAN DECLINE IN" SMALL SCALE". Acta Geographica Universitatis Comenianae, 58(2), 131-147.
Popper, D. E., & Popper, F. (2002). Small can be beautiful. 68, 20-23.
Pužulis, A., & Kūle, L. (2016). Shrinking of rural territories in Latvia. European Integration Studies(10), 90-105.
Rieniets, T. (2009). Shrinking Cities: Causes and Effects of Urban Population Losses in the Twentieth Century. Nature and Culture, 4(3), 231-254. doi:10.3167/nc.2009.040302
Rink, D., Haase, A., Bernt, M., Krzysztofik, R., Runge, J., & Mykhnenko, V. (2009). Specification of working model. Work package, 1.
Sarzynski, A., & Vicino, T. J. (2019). Shrinking Suburbs: Analyzing the Decline of American Suburban Spaces. Sustainability, 11(19), 5230. 取自https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/19/5230
Tong, Y., Liu, W., Li, C., Zhang, J., & Ma, Z. (2020). Small towns shrinkage in the Jilin Province: A comparison between China and developed countries. Plos one, 15(4), e0231159.
Turok, I., & Mykhnenko, V. (2007). The trajectories of European cities, 1960–2005. Cities, 24(3), 165-182. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2007.01.007
Wang, Y., & Fukuda, H. (2019). Sustainable urban regeneration for shrinking cities: A case from Japan. Sustainability, 11(5), 1505.
Wiechmann, T. (2009). Conversion strategies under uncertainty in post-socialist shrinking cities: The example of Dresden in Eastern Germany. The future of shrinking cities: Problems, patterns and strategies of urban transformation in a global context, 5-15.
Wiechmann, T., & Bontje, M. (2015). Responding to tough times: Policy and planning strategies in shrinking cities. In (Vol. 23, pp. 1-11): Taylor & Francis.
Wolff, M. (2010). Indicators to measure shrinking cities.
Wolff, M., & Wiechmann, T. (2014). Indicators to measure shrinking cities. Martinez-Fernandez, Cristina; Fol, Sylvie; Weyman, Tamara; Musterd, Sako: A Conceptual Framework for Shrinking Cities. COST Action TU0803: Cities Re-growing Smaller (CIRES).
Xie, Y., Gong, H., Lan, H., & Zeng, S. (2018). Examining shrinking city of Detroit in the context of socio-spatial inequalities. Landscape and Urban Planning, 177, 350-361.