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研究生: 施易伸
Shih, Yi-Shen
論文名稱: 股票報酬率與交易量變化率關係再探討
Revisit the Relationship between Stock Returns and Trading Volume
指導教授: 蔡群立
Tsai, Chun-Li
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2013
畢業學年度: 101
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 93
中文關鍵詞: 同期關係股市週期經濟景氣循環橫斷面相依性Driscoll and Kraay標準誤分量迴歸
外文關鍵詞: contemporaneous relations, stock market cycles, economic business cycles, cross sectional dependence, Driscoll and Kraay standard errors, quantile regression
相關次數: 點閱:102下載:7
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  • 本文選取美國S&P 100之46家公司於1998年至2007年的日資料,透過Driscoll and Kraay標準誤估計法與分量迴歸法,探討股票報酬率與交易量變化率在股市週期下(熊/牛市)以及經濟景氣循環下(衰退/復甦期)的非對稱同期關係。
    採用處理橫斷面相依性問題的Driscoll and Kraay標準誤估計法,檢定結果發現股票價量關係在熊/牛市之間有顯著非對稱的差異,而衰退/復甦期之間的差異並不顯著。而透過分量迴歸法來檢視價量關係在不同分量下的變化,檢定結果說明股票價量關係在熊/牛市下與衰退/復甦期下皆存在顯著非對稱的差異。本文並依據產業代碼作分類來探討不同產業的價量關係,有助於釐清個別產業之交易量與股票報酬的確切關係。

    This paper mainly examines the contemporaneous relationship between stock returns and trading volume. Using daily data for S&P 100 stock price and trading volume from 1998 to 2007, I investigate whether the return-volume relations differs during different phases of stock market cycles and economic business cycles, i.e., whether or not the relationship is asymmetric in bull and bear stock markets as well as in the recovery and the recession. I apply two theories to my study: First, using Driscoll and Kraay standard errors for panel regression with cross sectional dependence. Second, I employ quantile regression model. In contrast, this paper finds that the return-volume relations across two methods are quite different.
    In regard to using Driscoll and Kraay standard errors estimated method for panel regression with cross sectional dependence, test results illustrate an significantly asymmetric return-volume relation in bull and bear stock market, but the difference between the recovery and the recession is not statistically significant.
    In terms of using quantile regression method, test results also illustrate an significantly asymmetric return-volume relation in stock market cycles and economic business cycles. Finally, in order to clarify the exactly relationship within different industries, this paper categorizes all industries into 22 groups to explore the return-volume relationship.

    目錄 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與研究目的 1 第二節 論文架構 8 第二章 文獻探討 9 第一節 股票報酬與交易量間同期關係的文獻回顧 9 第二節 股票報酬與交易量間因果關係的文獻回顧 11 第三節 採取日資料的文獻回顧 14 第三章 樣本資料與計量方法 15 第一節 資料選取與資料處理 15 第二節 處理橫斷面相依性的計量方法 20 第三節 分量迴歸的計量方法 25 第四章 實證結果與分析 28 第一節 資料的敘述統計 28 第二節 價量的同期關係 31 第三節 評估產業效果對價量關係的影響 42 第四節 不同分量下的價量關係 54 第五節 評估產業效果在不同分量下的價量關係 68 第五章 結論與建議 81 第一節 結論 81 第二節 研究建議 83 參考文獻 85 中文部分 85 英文部分 86 附錄部分 91 附錄1 91 附錄2 92

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