本研究主要為探討總體變數及與中國相關的重大之國內外政經事件對中國外匯存底之可能影響，以分析這些變數對外匯存底所造成的影響。研究目的之一為探討哪些總體環境變數影響中國外匯存底；另一個探討重點為導入虛擬變數，分析禽流感事件、中國改採管理浮動匯率管理制度、中國對台開放15項貿易政策及中國對外資銀行開放人民幣業務等重大事件對中國之外匯存底變動是否有正面或負面的影響。

　　本研究以 2003 年 6 月至 2007 年 8 月之月資料進行實證，探討影響中國外匯存底之總體經濟變數，在完成共線性檢定、Nested Hypothesis、檢定變數不齊一及 D-W Test之後，以 OLS 最小平方法進行迴歸分析，並納入虛擬變數(dummy variables)分別代表此段時間之中國面對的國內外重大事件，同時進行適當之資料處理。實證研究結果發現總體經濟變數中，每人國民生產毛額(PCGDP)、外商直接投資(FDI)、外債餘額(DEBT)、貨幣供給額(M2)對中國外匯存底皆有正向之顯著影響；而匯率(ER)、禽流感事件(D1)、中國採管理浮動匯率制度(D2)及中國對外資銀行釋放人民幣業務(D5)皆為負向的顯著效應。

　　此外，本研究模型實證分析結果之變數符號皆與理論上之預期符號一致，顯示本實證模型能符合理論上之一致性。

　　The purpose of this study was to discuss the impact of macroeconomic variables and major events on foreign exchange reserves in China. The major direction of the research was to determine the key factors of macroeconomics which affect China’s foreign exchange reserves. The research was additionally designed to create dummy variables into the regression model in order to examine the correlation between foreign exchange reserves and major events, including avian influenza, the managed floating exchange rate system adopted by China, the fifteen trade policies for Taiwan proposed by China and RMB transactions released to foreign banks by China.

This study used monthly data from June 2003 to August 2007. After running Klein’s Method, a Nested Hypothesis test and the Durbin-Watson Test, adopting the Least Squares Method (OLS) and creating dummy variables to analyze influence, the results indicated that variables including per capita GDP, foreign direct investment, external debt and money supply had a positive impact on China’s foreign exchange reserves. On the other hand, the exchange rate variable and events including avian influenza, the managed floating exchange rate system adopted by China and RMB transactions released by China to foreign banks had a negative impact on China’s foreign exchange reserves.

　　In addition, the empirical result was consistent with expected theoretical results, therefore, this empirical model could be considered as adequate and consistent with theory.

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