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研究生： 張俊翊
Zhang, Jun-Yi
論文名稱： 太陽輻射管理客觀評估標準之先期研究
Preliminary Study for an Objective Evaluation Criterion on Solar Radiation Management
指導教授： 林清一
Lin, Chin-E
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 工學院 - 航空太空工程學系碩士在職專班
Department of Aeronautics & Astronautics (on the job class)
論文出版年： 2012
畢業學年度： 100
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 106
中文關鍵詞： 全球暖化 、氣候變遷 、地球工程 、備援計畫 、太陽輻射管理 、二氧化碳移除 、評估標準
外文關鍵詞： global warming, climate change, geoengineering, Plan B, solar radiation management, carbon dioxide removal, evaluation criterion
相關次數： 點閱：263  下載：1 
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    • 因為經濟與政治等因素的影響，以減少排放溫室氣體來減緩全球暖化，其成效並不顯著，為避免全球暖化持續惡化，減緩全球暖化的備援方案(Plan B) 已被構思，直接介入太陽與地球之間的熱輻射平衡，來減緩全球暖化，甚至逆轉全球平均溫度，達到工業革命前的水準。
    本研究的研究對象，是備援方案中的太陽輻射管理。透過分析既有的太陽輻射管理方案，建立4項評估指標，探討太陽輻射管理的可行性與不完備之處。太陽輻射管理各項方案因為其特質與運作原理，造成各項方案具有不同的優勢，也面臨不同的缺陷。本研究分別針對個別方案與全案，提出整體性的建議，在減緩全球暖化的努力上，讓各方案應該依據其優勢，在適合的領域發揮其效力，而非一次解決。
    基於臺灣在科學研究等領域的現有優勢，提出參與太陽輻射管理的建議，設定參與的定位與發展的目標，逐步從籌備到執行到參與國際合作，除了提高臺灣能見度，並為減緩全球暖化貢獻力量。

    The result of moderate global warming by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases is significant due to economics and politics concerns. To limit global warming, the Plan B concepts have been proposed which directly blocks thermal radiation between the Sun and the Earth. It would moderate global warming, and even restore the global mean temperature to the pre-industrial level.
    The objective of this research is focused on solar radiation management (SRM). By analyzing the existing projects and setting up 4 evaluation criteria, the evaluation suggests in using these criteria to quest the feasibility and uncertainty of SRM.
    There are various concepts and ways to make SRM project work, but they have their own strength and shortcoming. By analyzing these characteristics and affecting factors, this research proposes the viewpoints on either individual projects or whole cases to highlight their strength rather than overwhelming their shortcomings. This research also proposes the policy to promote SRM and to adapt to its impact by revising the existing concepts and establishing the supportable foundations. Based on the existing strength of science research of Taiwan, a Taiwanese SRM proposal is recommended for further government policy.

    摘要 i ABSTRACT ii 誌謝 iii 目錄 v 表目錄 viii 圖目錄 x 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.2 研究動機與目的 6 第二章 文獻探討 8 2.1 從主計畫到備援計畫的轉移 8 2.2 地球工程(Geoengineering) 12 2.3 太陽輻射管理(Solar Radiation Management, SRM) 19 2.3.1 海/陸面反射方案 21 2.3.2 大氣反射方案 25 2.3.3 太空反射方案 29 2.4 反對方論述 31 2.4.1 技術層面 31 2.4.2 政策層面 36 第三章 研究方法 38 3.1 研究範圍與限制因素 38 3.1.1 研究範圍 38 3.1.2 限制因素 39 3.2 定義評估指標 40 3.2.1 系統整體模式指標 42 3.2.2 後勤整備與技術支援指標 44 3.2.3 效力與永續性指標 45 3.2.4 安全與風險指標 46 3.3 討論 47 第四章 太陽輻射管理各項方案分析 54 4.1 指標的推理與運用 54 4.1.1 系統整體模式指標 55 4.1.2 後勤整備與技術支援指標 56 4.1.3 效力與永續性指標 59 4.1.4 安全與風險指標 61 4.2 海/陸面反射方案分析結果 64 4.3 大氣反射方案分析結果 70 4.4 太空反射方案分析結果 73 第五章 發展太陽輻射管理的建議 75 5.1 太陽輻射管理的部署規劃與建議 75 5.1.1 海/陸面反射方案的規劃與建議 76 5.1.2 大氣反射方案的規劃與建議 79 5.1.3 太空反射方案的規劃與建議 81 5.2 太陽輻射管理的國際合作與規範 83 5.2.1 國際合作參與的對象與架構 84 5.2.2 修正權利義務關係並建立分工機制 86 5.2.3 透過經費籌措來建立安全導向的經濟政策 87 5.2.4 整體性的規劃並訂定規範與限制 89 5.3 臺灣的參與 92 5.3.1 太陽輻射管理籌備時期 92 5.3.2 太陽輻射管理執行時期 94 5.3.3 善用優勢參與國際合作 97 第六章 結論與未來工作建議 99 6.1 結論 99 6.2 未來工作建議 101 參考文獻 103

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