在現今大氣中的溫室氣體不斷增加情況下，全球氣溫不斷的上升，顯示溫室效應越來越明顯，其中又以海運的污染最為嚴重，因此許多國家皆開始重視船舶排放廢氣對環境的影響。本研究將以(1)傳統海運燃料(Heavy Fuel Oil，HFO) +海運柴油(Marine Gas Oil，MGO)、(2)重油(HFO)+海運柴油(MGO)+洗滌器(Scrubber)、(3)低硫重油(Low Sulphur Heavy Fuel Oil，LSFO)+海運柴油(MGO) (4)液化天然氣(Liquefied Natural Gas，LNG)+海運柴油(MGO)，以及(5)甲醇(Methanol，MeOH) +海運柴油(MGO)五種不同策略為研究對象，利用船舶活動型態排放模型計算貨櫃船舶於航程中所排放的溫室氣體，並評估船舶更換燃料所造成的經濟衝擊。最後，再透過蒙地卡羅方法模擬燃料成本漲跌之風險值，對船東或經營者進行燃料支出金額的財務變動風險管理，藉以分析燃料限硫令新規定對航運公司船舶經濟和環境之相關影響，提供相關資訊作為海運業者營運管理參考之依據。研究結果指出，在環境方面Triple E船舶每年航行於亞洲-歐洲航線之總溫室氣體排放量為90,510,031公斤，其中，以二氧化碳(CO_2)排放的88,280,250公斤最高，懸浮微粒(PM_2.5)排放的17,846公斤最低；船舶更換甲醇(MeOH)燃料後可降低約61.57%之汙染排放，為較佳之策略。在經濟方面顯示，使用傳統海運燃料之成本最低(1,421萬美元)，甲醇(MeOH)策略中的新船(NB)方案次之(1,515萬美元)，研究也說明落實任何一種燃料組合皆不具經濟效益。在財務風險管理方面，各燃料組合之成本風險值皆高於海運傳統燃料的2,147萬美元，但若以新船(NB)方案來說，甲醇MeOH(NB)策略之1,944萬美元的風險值最低，較符合業者所能承擔之運營風險。綜合以上，船舶若實施更換燃料策略，將可大幅降低海運對空氣污染之排放，雖然會增加航商的經濟成本，但若能參考風險值之數據，也可設置一個損益點，以達較佳之風險決策。

The greenhouse effect has become more obvious recently, with shipping pollution being the most serious contributor. Therefore, many countries have become aware of the impact of ship emissions on the environment. In this thesis, five different policies, including (1) traditional fuels (HFO), (2) HFO+ MGO+ EGCS, (3) LSFO+ MGO, (4) LNG+ MGO, and (5) MeOH+ MGO, are focused on.
This study used the activity-based model to estimate the emissions from container vessels and analyzed the influence of new regulations on shipping companies. Finally, this thesis simulated fuel expenditure’s VaRs with the Monte Carlo Method, thereby providing a reference of financial risk management. Results from environmental concerns show that the total annual emissions of the Triple E vessel were 90,510,031 kg, the highest emissions were CO_2 (88,280,250 kg), and the lowest was PM_2.5 (17,846 kg).
After the strategy of replacing fuel, MeOH was found to reduce pollutant emissions by about 61.57%, which was the best. However, each fuel combination was not economical except for traditional fuels. The lowest cost was about $14.21 million for traditional fuels, and the newbuild ship option with the MeOH strategy had a sub-cost of $15.15 million. With respect to financial risk management, the fuel combination’s cost of VaR was higher than traditional fuels ($21.47 million). For the NB plan, however, the MeOH strategy had the lowest VaR ($19.44 million), which is the operational risk that relevant industries can afford.

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