由於政府的補助，過去十年太陽能產業蓬勃發展，本研究建立追蹤資料模型探討影響PV系統安裝量的主要因素。以學習曲線模型推估達到市電等價的年限，並討論影響PV模組成本的主要成本因子，討論達到市電等價的成本組合。
本研究所獲致的結論如下：
1.1976-2008年模組價格的PR值78%，PV系統累計安裝量倍增時，模組價格約下降22%。
2.依EPIA全球PV系統安裝量預測，模組價格約在2014-2016年達到市電等價。
3.PV模組價格、原油價格、GDP、R&D預算、Market stimulation預算對PV系統安裝量有顯著影響。
4.達市電等價$1.0/W主要的成本因子為poly成本、轉換效率與製造成本。

未來研究方向與建議：
1.追蹤資料模型可再增加幾個開始有政府補助的國家，自變數可增加日照強度，火力發電成本等，另外金融風暴對模式的影響，也可作為後續研究的方向。
2.政府單位可以參考其他國家的做法，制定合適的太陽能補助方案以刺激需求，建立台灣地區太陽能內需市場，未來才有機會達到市電等價。

The Photovoltaic industry was booming within last decades due to government’s subsidy program. This thesis establishes a panel regression model to discuss the key factors with impact to installation quantities of PV system, and establishes a learning curve model to estimate when the industry can reach grid parity.
The conclusions of this thesis are shown as below.
1.When worldwide cumulative installation quantity of PV system doubles, the module price will down 22% as well.
2.According to installation quantity forecast of PV system by EPIA, the module price can reach grid parity between 2014 to 2016.
3.PV module price, crude oil price, GDP, R&D subsidy, Market stimulation subsidy has significant impact to installation quantities of PV system.

The countries starting subsidy program can be added to the panel regression model. New variables, eg sun radiation, electricity cost of fossil fuel power plant, the impact of global financial crunch can be put into the model for further study. The government can refer to the other country’s experience to work out a suitable subsidy program to stimulate the demand of PV system and create the PV market in Taiwan, which is the basis to reach grid parity.

中文部份：
1.今週刊，太陽能超完美搶錢劇本，第630期，民國98年。
2.王子瑜，太陽能電池產業之發展與國家競爭優勢研究-日本、德國、美國與我國之研究，輔仁大學碩士論文，96年6月。
3.沈延隆，太陽能上游產業其業策略之研究，國立政治大學碩士論文，97年6月。
4.胡根地，台灣太陽能光電產業之及爭優勢-茂迪公司為例，國立東華大學碩士論文，97年5月。
5.財信出版社，新太陽練金術，頁14-15、48-55、75-79，民國98年。
6.陳建智，我國太陽能產業與績效關係之研究，銘傳大學碩士論文，97年6月。
7.郭恩慈，太陽能產業與廠商經營績效分析，世新大學碩士論文，97年7月。
8.費劍平、孫春霞譯，Damodar N.Gujarati著，計量經濟學，美商麥格羅希爾，民國98年。
9.黃炳宏，太陽能光電產業關鍵成功因素之研究-AHP法之運用，國立成功大學碩士論文，97年7月。

英文部份：
1.B.van der Zwaana, b & A.Rablc, Prospects for PV: a learning curve analysis, Solar Energy 74, P19-31, 2003.
2.Chien-Chiang Lee and Chun-Ping Chang (2007), Energy consumption and GDP revisited: A panel analysis of developed and developing countries, Energy Economics, 29 (2007), p1206-1223.
3.Emancipation from Subsidy Programs, Centrotherm, Photon International, 12-2008.
4.Global market outlook for photovoltaics until 2013, EPIA, 2009
5.Global PV Market Developments and Policies, Solarbuzz, Taipei Summit - PV Taiwan Forum 2009, 2009.
6.Iain Conn, Energy trends and technologies for the coming decades, Address to the Harvard University Center for the Environment, 2006.
7.Klaus Jacob et al., The International Adoption of Photovoltaic Energy Conversion, ZEW Economic Studies, vol 27, 2005.
8.Photovoltaic power systems in selected IEA member countries between 1992 and 1995, IEA PVPS, 1997.
9.PV Industry Roadmaps from the Supply Chain Perspective: Opportunities through Collaboration, EPIA, 2009.
10.R.M. Margolis, Photovoltaic Technology Experience Curves and Markets, Presentation at NCPV and Solar Program Review Meeting Denver, Colorado, 2003.
11.R.M.Mackay & S.D.Probert, Likely market-penetrations of renewable-energy technologies, Applied Energy, Vol.59, No1, pp.1-38, 1998.
12.S.Nowak & A.Claverie, R&D in photovoltaic power systems: Status and strategies in IEA countries, Proceedings 14th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, 1997.
13.Solar Photovoltaic Electricity: A mainstream power source in Europe by 2020, EPIA, 2009.
14.Solar Photovoltaic Industry - Looking Through the storm, Deutsche Bank, 2009.
15.The Strategic Research Agenda of the European PV Technology Platform: Methodology, Contents and Lessons learned, PV Technology Platform, 2008.
16.Trends in photovoltaic applications - Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2002, IEA PVPS, 2003.
17.Trends in photovoltaic applications - Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2003, IEA PVPS, 2004.
18.Trends in photovoltaic applications - Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2004, IEA PVPS, 2005.
19.Trends in photovoltaic applications - Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2005, IEA PVPS, 2006.
20.Trends in photovoltaic applications - Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2006, IEA PVPS, 2007.
21.Trends in photovoltaic applications - Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2007, IEA PVPS, 2008.
22.Trends in photovoltaic applications - Survey report of selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2008, IEA PVPS, 2009.
23.Trends in photovoltaic applications in selected IEA countries between 1992 and 1998, IEA PVPS, 1999.
24.Trends in photovoltaic applications in selected IEA countries between 1992 and 1999, IEA PVPS, 2000.
25.Trends in photovoltaic applications in selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2000, IEA PVPS, 2001.
26.Trends in photovoltaic applications in selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2001, IEA PVPS, 2002.
27.Trends in PV power applications in selected IEA countries between 1992 and 1997, IEA PVPS, 1998.
28.World Energy Outlook 2008, International Energy Agency (IEA), 2008.

網站部份：
1.互動百科, http://E9%83%BD%E5%8D%8F%E5%AE%9A, 2009。
2.京都協定簡介, http://www.hudong.com/wiki/%E4%BA%AC%
3.End-use petroleum product prices and average crude oil import costs, http://www.iea.org/stats/surveys/mps.xls, IEA, 2009.
4.Hands on Q-Cells, Handbook for Investors and Analysts http://www.q-cells.com/medien/ir/downloads, Q-Cell, 2008.
5.International Workshop on Solar Photovoltaic Electricity, http://www.iea-pvps.org, U.S. Department of energy, 2008.
6.OECD.StatExtract, http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?lang=en
7.PV in the USA: Technology Evolution, Expanding Markets, Advancing Technology, http://www.eere.energy.gov/solar, U.S. Department of Energy, 2008.
8.The European Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) for Photovoltaic Solar Energy, http://www.eupvplatform.org, 2007
9.The Race for Solar Energy: Global market dynamics and Opportunities in India, http:// www.isaonline.org/visionsummit, Tata BP Solar, 2009.