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研究生： 蔡丁禕霈
Ting, Yi-Pei Tsai
論文名稱： 農業勞動力調查抽樣設計研究
On the Sampling Design of the Agricultural Labor Force Survey
指導教授： 趙昌泰
Chao, Chang-Tai
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 統計學系
Department of Statistics
論文出版年： 2020
畢業學年度： 108
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 70
中文關鍵詞： 主力農家 、農業勞動力調查 、分層抽樣
外文關鍵詞： Primary farm household, Agricultural labor force survey, Stratified sampling
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    • 每五年進行一次全台灣的農林漁牧業普查工作，為官方重要的調查之一，然而，普查是為一項需要耗費大量成本，且數據量處理上也需要大量時間的工作，也因此普查資料無法提供即時性訊息，所以若想了解當前農牧業相關情況，每個年度針對性的抽樣調查是有其必要性的，以便即時制定適當的政策。
    農業勞動力調查為農委會近期關注的項目之一，基於主力農家母體在收入調查之分層方式，透過分層隨機抽樣來配置樣本數，此項調查已實行兩個年度，共有七千多筆樣本，本研究將透過已有的樣本資訊，掌握缺工戶之母體特性，修正原調查設計的樣本數配置，以提升缺工樣本數為主要目標。推估精確度考量上採取與收入調查相同的指標，內部分層抽樣為了提高缺工樣本數，因此考慮其他分層變數，此舉將會在收入平均的推估上損失部分精確度，必須在兩者間取得平衡。

    The census of Agricultural, Forestry, Fishery and Animal Husbandry is an important official survey in Taiwan. However, enormous survey cost and effort for the data processing are required for such a nationwide census, hence this census can only be conducted every five years. Therefore, certain annual agricultural survey is necessary for the current related industry information, so that proper policy can be formulated timely.
    The agricultural labor force survey which is concerned by Council of Agriculture(COA) recently. The sample allocation strategy is to stratify the target population based on the strategy used in a previous survey to stratify primary farm households and collect information about household gross income. Data collected over the two years is used in this thesis to understand population characteristics of households which faced labor shortage in order to revise the sample allocation strategy to increase the number of farm households facing labor shortage in the sample is the main propose of this study. A sample allocation strategy devised to increase the number of farm households facing labor shortage in the sample will inevitably cause the precision to suffer when estimating overall household income, for additional variable is considered to identify labor shortage in population stratification that was not accounted for in the previous surveys in which variance reduction in estimation of income was the key to sample allocation. Our aim is find a sampling strategy to help understand why there is labor shortage, yet be able to estimate household gross income with reasonable precision.

    摘要 ............................................ i Abstract ....................................... ii 誌謝 ........................................... v 目錄 .............................................vi 表目錄 ......................................... viii 圖目錄........................................... x 第1章 緒論 ....................................... 1 1.1 研究背景 ..................................... 1 1.2 研究動機 ..................................... 2 1.3 預期貢獻 ..................................... 2 第2章 母體資料來源 ................................ 4 2.1 農林漁牧業普查資料特性 ......................... 4 2.2 主力農家 ..................................... 5 2.2.1 主力農家母體特性 ............................ 5 2.2.2 主力農家母體分層 ............................ 6 第3章 抽樣方法 .................................... 8 3.1 分層抽樣 ..................................... 8 3.1.1 抽樣方式 ................................... 8 3.1.2 基本推論 ................................... 9 3.1.3 優缺點 ..................................... 12 3.1.4 各層樣本數配置(Allocation) .................. 12 3.1.5 事後分層方法(Post-Stratification) ........... 13 3.2 過去調查經驗之抽樣設計 ......................... 14 3.2.1 分層母體數 ................................. 14 3.2.2 分層樣本數 ................................. 16 3.3 過去調查經驗之樣本資訊 ......................... 18 3.4 分層方法 ..................................... 26 3.4.1 抽樣設計一——僱工情形層內再分層 ............... 27 3.4.2 抽樣設計二——依照整體樣本之缺工比例分為四層 ..... 29 3.4.3 抽樣設計三——依照各層樣本之缺工比例分為四層 ..... 32 3.5 農牧戶收入均之分層母體變異數 .................... 34 第4章 模擬研究 .................................... 38 4.1 建立模型 ...................................... 38 4.2 模擬方法 ...................................... 41 4.3 模擬結果 ...................................... 43 4.3.1 缺工樣本數 .................................. 43 4.3.2 毛收入樣本平均變異數 ......................... 46 第5章 結論 ........................................ 51 中文參考文獻 ...................................... 53 英文參考文獻 ...................................... 54 附錄 A ........................................... 55 附錄 B ........................................... 59 附錄 C .......................................... 62 附錄 D ........................................... 70

    行政院農業委員會(民106)104年農林漁牧業普查}【原始數據】未出版之原始資料
    行政院農業委員會(民107)104年主力農家母體資料}【原始數據】未出版之原始資料
    行政院農業委員會(民107)105年農業結構及勞動力調查}【原始數據】未出版之原始資料
    行政院農業委員會(民108)106年農業結構及勞動力調查}【原始數據】未出版之原始資料
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