本研究目的是分析M天然氣礦區2號井的暫態壓力資料，利用傳統作圖法（宏諾作圖法）求得地層滲透率（k）與膚表因子（s）。其中，也考慮輸入參數（生產率、氣體黏度、氣體偏差因子、地層厚度等）的不確定性，進行蒙地卡羅法分析。另外，也利用數值模擬法之歷史資料調諧，以推求地層參數。
在傳統的作圖法裡，本研究採用「壓力平方模式」與「擬似壓力模式」分析2號井的三次噴流後之關井井壓測試資料。「壓力平方模式」所分析結果：地層滲透率介於353md至369md之間；視膚表因子介於11.3至13.7之間（真膚表因子為9.72）。「擬似壓力模式」所分析結果：地層滲透率介於356md至390md之間；視膚表因子介於10.6至15.4之間（真膚表因子為4.48）。在以上的分析裡，也考慮生產率、氣體黏度、氣體偏差因子以及作圖法的直線斜率之不確定性，利用蒙地卡羅模擬而得以下結果：壓力平方模式之地層滲透率介於260md至410md（均值為325md）；視膚表因子介於5.4至11.2（均值為7.8）。擬似壓力模式之地層滲透率介於275md至395md（均值為335md）；視膚表因子介於6至11.2（均值為8.2）。
利用數值模擬以歷史調諧法所分析上述之井壓資料的結果：地層滲透率為380md，因三次噴流的產率不同，所求得膚表因子受到產率大小的影響，視膚表因子介於11.5至14.02（真膚表因子為9.55）。

The purpose of this study is to analyze pressure transient data for M2 well in M gas field. Conventional plot techniques are used for analyzing data and calculating formation permeability and skin factor. Uncertainty analysis by varying input parameters (such as, production rate, viscosity, gas formation factor, etc.) are also conducted. In addition, numerical model is setting up to analyze the pressure transient data by history matching.
Both pressure square equation and pseudopressure equation are used to analyze three buildup tests from M2 well. The results from pressure square equation are: formation permeability is between 353 md to 369 md and the apparent skin factor is between 11.3 to 13.7 (with the real skin factor is 9.72). The results from pseudopressure equation are: formation permeability is between 356 md to 390 md and the apparent skin factor is between 11.3 to 13.7 (with the real skin factor is 4.48).
Based on pressure square equation, the results from uncertainty analysis by Monte Carlo method show that the formation permeability is between 260 md to 410 md (with a mean value of 325 md) and the apparent skin factor is between 5.4 to 11.2 (with a mean value of 7.8). Based on the pseudopressure equation, the results from uncertainty analysis show that the formation permeability is between 275 md to 395 md (with a mean value of 335 md) and the apparent skin factor is between 6 to 11.2 (with a mean value of 8.2).

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