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研究生: 柯昌宏
Kuo, Chang-Hong
論文名稱: 52週高價動能策略與動能生命週期假說的實證-以臺灣市場為例
An Empirical Study on 52-Week High Momentum Strategy and Momentum Life Cycle Hypothesis – Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market
指導教授: 顏盟峯
Yen, Meng-Feng
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所碩士在職專班
Graduate Institute of Finance (on the job class)
論文出版年: 2016
畢業學年度: 104
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 41
中文關鍵詞: 動能策略52週高價動能動能生命週期假說
外文關鍵詞: Momentum strategy, 52-week high momentum, Momentum Life Cycle, MLC
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  • 自Jegadeesh and Titman (1993)提出價格動能策略並顯著於美國市場獲得正報酬之後,動能相關的研究便如雨後春筍般出現,許多學者投入心力持續探討動能相關的財務實證,並陸續承襲Jegadeesh所提出的概念,發展出以不同的指標所建構的動能策略,如:盈餘動能、產業動能、52週高價動能、移動平均動能、殘差動能…等。彭建偉(2012)以臺灣市場實證發現52週高價動能策略對於其他動能策略有顯著的支配性。另外對於動能策略的報酬來源及持續性的探討亦不在少數,Lee and Swaminathan (2000)即提出動能生命週期假說(Momentum Life Cycle, MLC),認為個股動能將會在反應不足與反應過度間循環,因此若建構動能策略時,考慮進交易量變數,界定低交易量高動能者為早期動能投組,高交易量高動能者為晚期動能投組,則早期動能投組獲利性將顯著優於晚期動能投組。因此本文將以臺灣市場為研究樣本,探討結合52週高價動能與MLC之後,動能策略的獲利性是否顯著地受到影響,期望實證結果可對於臺灣市場的動能策略交易者提供不同的參考依據。

    There are plenty of studies in momentum strategy after the significant positive returns research in the U.S. market by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), also there are lots of different kind of momentums based on the concept of price momentum such as earnings momentum, industry momentum, 52-week high momentum, moving average momentum, residual momentum. Peng (2012) evidences the 52-week high momentum strategy in Taiwan stock market, to make sure that 52-week high strategy is dominant to other momentum strategy. In the other hand, Lee and Swaminathan (2000) construct the “Momentum Life Cycle Hypothesis”, think that the individual momentum experiences in a cycle between overreaction and under reaction. This paper wants to put effort on combining the trading volume variable into 52-week high momentum strategy then discuss whether that’s more profitable or not, and provide another view on momentum strategy to market participants.

    摘要……………………………………………………………………………………………...I Abstract………………………………………………………………………………………II 謝誌…………………………………………………………………………………………...VII 目錄………………………………………………………………………………………….VIII 表目錄………………………………………………………………………………………….X 圖目錄…………………………………………………………………………………………XI 第壹章 緒論…………………………………………………………………………..……1 第一節 研究動機…………………………..…………………………………..…1 第二節 研究背景………………………..………………………………………..1 第三節 研究目的……………………………………………..…………………..2 第四節 研究流程………………………………………………………………………...3 第貳章 文獻回顧…………………………………………………………………………4 第一節 過度反應…………………………………..……………………………..4 第二節 反應不足……………………………………………………....………..5 第三節 52週高價動能…………………………………………………………..9 第四節 動能生命週期假說…………………………………………………………..10 第參章 研究方法………………………………………………………………………..13 第一節 研究資料………………….....…………………………………………13 第二節 變數定義………………………………………..………………………13 第三節 投資組合的建構………………………………………………………15 第四節 研究步驟…………………………………………………………………....…17 第肆章 實證結果……………………………….……………………………………..23 第一節 投資組合特徵與報酬……………………………………………….23 第二節 贏家與輸家投組橫向績效分析………………………………….25 第三節 原始、早期、晚期投組累積績效分析………………………..28 第四節 投資組合結構穩健性分析…………………………………………31 第伍章 研究結論與建議……………………………………………………………..36 第一節 研究結論………………………………………………………………..36 第二節 研究建議………………………………………………………………..37 參考文獻…………………………………………………………………………………….39

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