本論文透過系統動態分析方法，探討行動通訊產業組成因子內涵，釐清影響產業發展因子間的系統關係結構。建立第一代至第三代行動通訊系統的系統互動關係，並且構建出我國行動通訊產業供給、需求、營運商收益的動態模型，作為本研究主要的分析架構。
　　本研究根據模擬第一代與第二代行動通訊系統，建置第三代行動通訊系統模型，據以推估未來至民國101年3G營運商之收益情況。論文研究顯示，影響未來行動通訊產業發展的關鍵因素為「語音使用量」、「數據下載量」、「數據下載資費水準」、「用戶數」、「政府政策」，這些因子影響著我國第三代行動通訊產業的成敗。模式模擬結果顯示，至民國101年，3G營運商年收益可達200,523,989,578元(兩千億元)，累計收益則可高達836,416,819,895元(八千億元)，較目前3G業者的保守態度樂觀許多。最後，本論文指出我國行動通訊產業系統在語音與數據容量上未來將會有大幅剩餘；從業者營收以及系統資源有效使用的角度來看，「資費水準」是影響此等剩餘非常關鍵的因素，因此，「資費」與「資費方案」的組合將會是未來個別3G營運商是否能夠脫穎勝出的關鍵。

　　This paper discusses about the development of mobile telecommunication industry in Taiwan. We use system dynamic research approach to analyze the critical factors in development of the industry. Those internal and external factors and their interrelationships are structured in different hierarchies and discussed. It is found that technology, government policy/regulation, and economy factors are the three critical factors.
　　This paper establishes those models of system supply, demand, and operator revenue in mobile telecommunication industry. Further, it simulates 3G output value and subscribers during 2004-2012. It is found that voice usage, data download usage, tariff, 3G subscriber and policy/regulation are key factors of development in third generation industry. The system dynamics is found a good approach capable of including the impact of policy/regulation to the competitive environment of an industry.

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