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研究生: 徐崇維
Hsu, Chung-Wei
論文名稱: 光電城鄉潛力初探:以臺南市部分地區為例
Exploring the Urban-Rural Potential of Solar Photovoltaics:A Case Study of Selected Areas in Tainan City, Taiwan
指導教授: 張學聖
Chang, Hsueh-Sheng
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 規劃與設計學院 - 都市計劃學系
Department of Urban Planning
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 98
中文關鍵詞: 屋頂型光電潛在發電量能源供需衡量城鄉差異財務可行性
外文關鍵詞: Rooftop photovoltaics, Potential electricity generation, Energy supply-demand assessment, Urban-rural differences, Financial feasibility
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  • 淨零碳排與能源轉型政策推動下,屋頂型光電因可利用既有建築空間、降低土地使用衝突,逐漸成為分散式再生能源發展的重要方向。然而,既有研究多以縣市或行政區尺度之總量資料進行分析,相對缺乏建築尺度之空間盤點;於發展潛力推估上,亦較少同時整合屋頂障礙物、鄰棟建物遮蔽、住宅用電需求及制度條件下財務可行性進行綜合評估。有鑑於此,本研究以臺南市七股區、安南區、安平區、中西區及北區為研究範圍,依鄉村區、城鄉過渡帶與都市區作為操作性城鄉分類,建立結合正射影像、語意分割模型與 GIS 空間分析之屋頂光電現況盤點與發展潛力評估流程,並進一步納入住宅能源供需衡量、財務可行性分析與各政策情境下之財務參數敏感度分析,以呈現屋頂光電由現況已設置、現行制度可推動至政策調整後可增加之各階段發電量變化情形,並比較不同城鄉空間型態下屋頂光電發展條件與推動限制。
    研究結果顯示,研究範圍現況發電量與潛在發電量合計約為3,134.33 GWh/yr,可視為整體發電規模。其中,現況發電量僅約16.06 GWh/yr占0.51%,其餘3,118.27 GWh/yr則為既有建成環境中尚待開發之潛在發電量。可見現況屋頂光電設置比例低,既有建成環境仍具一定規模發電潛力。於現行躉購費率、地方補助與建置成本所構成之基線情境下,財務可行發電量約為1,400.90 GWh/yr,與現況發電量合計後占整體發電規模之45.21%。政策情境分析進一步顯示,躉購費率提高及建置成本降低,發電量可分別提高至2,492.73 GWh/yr及2,934.83 GWh/yr,與現況發電量合計後占整體發電規模之80.04%及94.15%;單純提高補助上限則未產生明顯改變。顯示長期躉購收益與初始建置成本為後續改善之關鍵因素。
    城鄉比較結果則顯示,都市區雖受單棟屋頂面積較小、屋頂空間破碎、障礙物及鄰棟遮蔽影響等限制,但因建物高度集中,其單位面積之建物投影面積、可用屋頂面積及潛在發電量(65.24 GWh/yr/km²)均為三類分區中最高。城鄉過渡帶則因兼具較多建物數量與較大單棟屋頂面積,潛在發電總量約為1,694.18 GWh/yr,為三類分區中最高;鄉村區雖因建物分布分散,使潛在發電總量與單位面積潛在發電量相對較低,但不易受障礙物及鄰棟遮蔽影響,同時具有較高之人均可鋪設屋頂面積。另就住宅能源供需概況而言,主要受人均住宅用電需求影響,自給率由高至低依序為鄉村區、城鄉過渡帶、都市區。
    本研究指出,屋頂光電推動政策應同時考量建成環境特性、能源需求、躉購收益與建置成本等條件,採取城鄉差異化推動策略。鄉村區應強化地方能源韌性,城鄉過渡帶為規模化推動之優先場域,都市區則應降低屋頂空間整合成本。此研究成果可作為都市能源規劃及分散式再生能源推動政策設計之參考。

    Rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems are important distributed renewable-energy systems because they use existing building space and reduce land competition. This study develops a building-scale framework for assessing rooftop PV development in Qigu, Annan, Anping, West Central, and North districts of Tainan City, Taiwan. The districts are classified into rural, urban–rural transition, and urban areas. High-resolution orthophotography, deep-learning semantic segmentation, and geographic information system (GIS) analysis are integrated with residential electricity-demand assessment, financial feasibility analysis, and policy-scenario sensitivity analysis.
    The identifiable existing rooftop PV generation is estimated at 16.06 GWh/yr, while the remaining potential, excluding existing installations, is 3,118.27 GWh/yr. Together, they form an overall technical generation scale of 3,134.33 GWh/yr. Existing generation represents only 0.51% of this scale. Under baseline financial conditions, the cumulative generation scale, including existing generation, reaches 45.21%. It increases to 80.04% when feed-in tariffs are raised by 10%, 94.15% when installation costs decline by 10%, and 100% under the combined policy scenario. Urban–rural comparisons show that the urban area has the highest generation intensity per unit of land, the transition zone has the largest total potential, and the rural area has the greatest potential residential electricity surplus.

    摘要 I Extended Abstract II 誌謝 V 目錄 VI 表目錄 VII 圖目錄 IX 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究發問 3 第三節 研究目的 3 第四節 研究流程 4 第二章 文獻回顧 5 第一節 能源轉型下屋頂型光電的機會與限制 5 第二節 屋頂光電現況盤點之研究進展 8 第三節 屋頂光電潛力評估方法 9 第四節 政策支持與經濟效益 13 第五節 文獻綜述與研究缺口 16 第三章 研究設計 17 第一節 研究架構 17 第二節 研究範圍與城鄉分類 18 第三節 屋頂光電現況盤點方法 20 第四節 屋頂光電發展潛力評估方法 22 第五節 城鄉發展潛力差異分析方法 27 第六節 財務可行性評估 29 第四章 研究實證 31 第一節 屋頂光電現況盤點 31 第二節 屋頂光電發展潛力推估 36 第三節 城鄉發展潛力差異分析 53 第四節 財務可行性與政策情境敏感度分析 55 第五章 結論與建議 66 第一節 研究結論 66 第二節 屋頂光電發展之規劃與政策建議 67 第三節 研究限制與後續研究方向 68 參考文獻 71 附錄 78

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