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研究生：	周孟陞 Chou, Meng-Sheng
論文名稱：	精簡式協同規劃預測補貨模式之實證研究 A Emperial Study on Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment Lite Model
指導教授：	呂執中 Lyu, JrJung
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	管理學院 - 資訊管理研究所 Institute of Information Management
論文出版年：	2004
畢業學年度：	92
語文別：	中文
論文頁數：	94
中文關鍵詞：	便利商店、供應鏈管理、協同規劃預測補貨
外文關鍵詞：	CPFR, Supply Chain Management, Convenient Store
相關次數：	點閱：163 下載：8
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　　供應鏈管理在近十餘年來為學術界及企業界所重視，所關注的重心逐漸由組織內的整合與流程再造，到目前跨組織的整合與協同合作。1996年Wal–Mart與供應商對於商品之預測及補貨協調實行改善專案，至1998年由美國跨產業商業標準協會(VICS)正式定義為「協同規劃預測補貨」(CPFR)，並且公布執行的步驟和方法細節等內容。近年來歐美許多企業應用此模式後，均能有效地提升需求預測精確性、降低存貨成本、減少缺貨狀況等，因此成為供應鏈管理中一個新興的趨勢。
　　然而CPFR 流程模式共有九大步驟，而國內廠商管理制度的水準、電子化的程度等，與歐美尚有一段落差，可能必須先進行其他改善作業，耗費較多的人力、時間及成本才能完整導入此模式，對於欲導入的企業而言，是很大的負擔以及風險，並且影響導入意願。此外，模式本身為了適合供應鏈中不同產業特性的廠商導入，因此未能針對特定產業的作業流程和現況給予不同的執行方向，導入時易事倍功半。
　　本研究以零售產業中的便利商店與上游製造商為對象，考量產業特性、交易流程及相關能力，提出適合便利商店業者與製造商之間的精簡式協同規劃預測補貨模式。模式主要省略原來模式中需要雙方協商的部份內容，讓銷售預測步驟的工作大部份由零售端獨自完成，因此能夠讓廠商很快地由現在的作業方式，轉換為協同規劃預測補貨模式的方式，節省導入的時間、資源和降低變革的風險。另外本研究也根據所提出的模式，建置一精簡式CPFR平台雛形系統，以支援和說明此模式。最後以個案公司資料應用情境模擬的方法，評估上下游雙方面對需求及交期不確定時，透過彼此協調、共享成本結構和需求等資訊，所產生整體的效益與限制。由個案之探討也驗證了本研究所提出之精簡式CPFR 模式，在零售產業實現之可行性，可作為後續研究之參考。

　　Supply chain management (SCM) is an important issue recognized by academics and business people. Recently, the focus of SCM has shifted from integration and reengineering within an organization to streamlining and collaborating across different organizations. In 1996, Wal-Mart and its supplier started a project to improve their forecasting and replenishment collaboration merchandise. Details of the method in that project were defined as “Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)” by Volunteer Interindustry Commerce Standard (VICS). Many businesses, especially in America and Europe, have implemented this model and effectively improved their accuracy of forecasting, lowered the cost of stocks and decreased stock-outs. CPFR has, therefore, become a prevailing trend.
　　A complete CPFR model has nine step, many companies in developed countries have difficulties to implement the model due to their information management capability. It costs high manpower, time and budget, and causes risk to adopt CPFR and hinders willingness of businesses in many cases. In addition, the original CPFR model was designed for diverse partners in any supply chain, not for specific industry, which makes the model difficult to use for specific domain.
　　The objective of the research focuses on developing a “CPFR Lite model” suitable for a convenient store company and its upstream manufacturer in retailing industry, that considering their characteristics, trading processes and related capabilities. This lite model omits some collaboration works and fits for the case which the retailer is responsible for sale-forecasting. The lite model enables companies to transform their processes to the CPFR like, yet with limited time and costs on　implementation. A CPFR Lite Platform is also developed to support the new model. Finally, a case study is presented, in which scenario simulation shows the value and limitations of supplier-buyer coordination in coping with uncertainty in demand and delivery time.

摘  要..........................................................................I
Abstract.......................................................................II
誌  謝........................................................................III
目  錄.........................................................................IV
表 目 錄.......................................................................VI
圖 目 錄......................................................................VII
第一章  緒論....................................................................1
第一節  研究背景與動機..........................................................1
第二節  研究目的................................................................2
第三節  研究範圍與限制..........................................................3
第四節  研究流程與方法..........................................................4
第二章  文獻探討................................................................6
第一節  供應鏈管理..............................................................6
2.1.1  供應鏈的定義.............................................................6
2.1.2  供應鏈管理的定義.........................................................9
2.1.3  長鞭效應與資訊分享之夥伴關係............................................11
2.1.4  網路技術對供應鏈管理之影響..............................................14
第二節  協同規劃預測補貨.......................................................16
2.2.1	CPFR的起源及定義.......................................................16
2.2.2	CPFR之流程模式.........................................................17
2.2.3	CPFR的效益.............................................................21
第三節  零售產業之特性.........................................................25
2.3.1	零售產業之定義及發展概況...............................................25
2.3.2	便利商店業發展概況.....................................................27
第三章  精簡式協同規劃預測補貨模式架構.........................................30
第一節  產業環境...............................................................30
第二節  精簡式協同規劃預測補貨模式.............................................34
3.2.1	模式建立...............................................................34
3.2.2	精簡模式之細部流程.....................................................37
第三節  系統分析與設計.........................................................50
3.3.1	需求分析...............................................................50
3.3.2	資料庫設計.............................................................53
第四節  模式探討...............................................................58
第四章  實證探討...............................................................63
第一節  系統實作與界面說明.....................................................63
4.1.1	系統環境...............................................................63
4.1.2	系統界面說明...........................................................64
第二節  個案描述...............................................................69
第三節  討論與建議.............................................................72
第五章  結論與未來研究方向.....................................................74
第一節  結論...................................................................74
第二節  未來研究方向...........................................................76
附錄A..........................................................................77
A.1  模式推導..................................................................77
A.2  數據分析..................................................................81
附錄B..........................................................................88
參考文獻.......................................................................90
                                    

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三、網站部份
1. Plunkett Research Ltd.， http://www.plunkettresearch.com/。
2. Supply-Chain Council，http://www.supply-chain.org。
3. Syncra Systems Inc.，http://www.syncrasystems.com。
4. U.S. Census Bureau，http://www.census.gov。
5. Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards (VICS) Association，http://www.vics.org。
6. VICS’s CPFR Website，http://www.cpfr.org。
7. 台灣連鎖暨加盟協會，http://www.tcfa.org.tw。
8. 經濟部網路商業應用資源中心，http://www.ec.org.tw。
9. 經濟部統計處，http://2k3dmz2.moea.gov.tw/gnweb/。

校內：2005-08-05公開
校外：2014-08-05公開

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