| 研究生: |
黃彥達 Huang, Yen-Ta |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
美中貿易戰對蘋果供應鏈概念股之報酬影響-以事件研究法分析 The Impact of US-China Trade War on the Return of Apple Supply Chain-related Stocks by Events Study |
| 指導教授: |
莊双喜
Chuang, Shuang-Shii |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 企業管理學系 Department of Business Administration |
| 論文出版年: | 2019 |
| 畢業學年度: | 107 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 33 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 美中貿易戰 、事件研究法 、異常報酬 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | US-China trade war, Event study, Abnormal return |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:57 下載:0 |
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近期美中貿易戰之疑雲密佈,壟罩全球經濟之發展前景。而關稅扮演推進美中貿易戰談判的主要角色。全球產業也受到貿易戰之衝擊而有著不一的影響。因此,本研究欲探討國際貿易的變化對於本國產業會有何影響,並以在美中貿易戰下國際貿易政策及環境的劇烈變化對本國蘋果公司產業供應鏈相關公司(台灣上市公司)之影響為研究主題。
本研究分別針對三個貿易戰期間發生之重大事件進行分析,分別探討其事件發生前後對本國蘋果公司產業供應鏈相關公司之影響,其中兩個事件為負面事件,一個事件為正面事件,並依照事件提出共三個假說。本研究主要採用的研究方法為事件研究法,並以 TEJ資料庫做為資料來源,再選定合適之估計方法與驗證方法來進行資料分析並檢驗本文之假說。
實證結果顯示:隨著美中貿易戰相關消息被美國及中國政府釋放或實施後,無論是對正面或是反面之消息,台股之市場投資人均會做出明顯的回應。樣本股的表現與事件的發生為正相關,亦即樣本股對於正面消息會產生正的異常報酬;反之,負面消息則產生負的異常報酬。此外,從研究結果可以觀察得到本研究之樣本股對於消息的釋放有著提前反應的現象發生。
Recently, the suspicion of the US-China trade war has covered the development prospects of the global economy. The tariff plays a major role in the US-China trade war negotiations. The global industries have also been affected by the trade war. Therefore, this study wants to explore the impact of changes in international trading environment on domestic industries, and the impact of the dramatic changes in international trade policies and the environment under the US-China trade war on the domestic Apple industrial supply chain related companies (Taiwan-exchange listed companies)for the research topic.
This study analyzes the three major events occurred during the trade wars, and discusses the impact of the incidents on the domestic Apple supply chain-related companies before and after the incident, two of which are negative events and one incident is positive events. The incident raised a total of three hypotheses. The research method mainly used in this study is the event study , and the TEJ database is used as the data source. This study also selected the appropriate estimation method and verification method to analyze the data and test the hypothesis
The empirical results show that as the US-China trade war news is released or implemented by the US or China governments, whether it is positive or negative news, market investors in Taiwan stocks will respond clearly. The performance of the sample stocks is positively related to the occurrence of the event, that is, the sample stocks will generate positive abnormal returns for positive news; otherwise, the negative news will generate negative abnormal returns. In addition, it can be observed from the research results that the sample stocks of this study have a premature reaction to the release of the message.
中文部份
沈中華、李建然(2000)。事件研究法:財務與會計實證研究必備。華泰文化事業股份有限公司。
周賓凰與蔡坤芳(1997)。臺灣股市日資料特性與事件研究法
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校內:2024-06-25公開