流行性腮腺炎在台灣早期約 1980 年代是非常普遍的兒童傳染病，年病例數在疫苗引進後隨即有顯著的下降，但過去 10 年來每年通報病例數卻逐年上升，近年來病例數則突破千例。流行病學常以三角模式來探討傳染病的發生，其中的環境因素隨著近年來氣候變遷議題逐漸受到重視，因此越來越多文獻以氣候因子為主軸來探討傳染病的流行趨勢。但目前卻甚少有研究以氣候因子為主軸來探討流行性腮腺炎的流行趨勢。
本研究以 2006-2011 年間疾病管制局法定傳染病資料庫與中央氣象局地面氣象觀測站的每日氣象資料，使用負二項回歸分析及病歷交叉研究探討氣候因子與流行性腮腺炎之間的相關性，以前 4 年資料建立預測模型，再以後兩年資料進行驗證，另以公式計算各氣候因子在不同程度下對病例數的影響來評估閾值效應。
研究期間內共6,570 例通報個案，結果顯示流行性腮腺炎有顯著季節趨勢，以 5、6 月為流行高峰。負二項回歸分析顯示控制是否放假後，月病例數與平均溫度、平均溫差、平均水氣壓、累積降雨量、累積日照時數等變項皆呈顯著正相關。病例交叉研究則發現平均溫度與平均水氣壓分別在發病前 29 天、25天開始對流行性腮腺炎有顯著影響；閾值計算結果顯示當平均溫度大於 20°C時流行性腮腺炎病例開始明顯增加，達 25°C 時則逐漸減少，而當水氣壓介於5-10hPa 時病例數開始明顯上升，直到水氣壓介於 25-30hPa 時逐漸下降。
平均溫度、平均水氣壓與是否開學為影響流行性腮腺炎病毒傳播的重要因子，建議公共衛生單位可利用閾值效應結果設立溫度、水氣壓的警戒範圍，配合預測模型參考疾病可能發展的長期趨勢，在流行高峰期間(5、6 份)之前及早開始準備防治措施以降低流行性腮腺炎感染及擴散的風險。

In 1980’s, mumps is a common childhood infectious disease in Taiwan. There has been a great reduction in the annual number of reported cases of mumps after the introduction of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine. However, an increasing trend of annual case number over the past decades was reported. Currently, the annual numbers of reported cases are slightly over 1,000 cases. In epidemiology, the Epidemiologic Triangle Model has always been used to investigate occurrence of infectious diseases. The environmental factors are particular important in the context of climate change in these years, which is the reason why more and more research focus on effects of climate factors on infectious diseases. So far, there were really few studies put emphasize on effects of climate factors on trend of mumps occurrence.
The purpose of this study was to explore a possible relationship between climate factors and infections of mumps in Taiwan by the data reported to National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System and daily meteorological data provided by the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau. We used both Negative Binomial regression models and case-crossover methodology to identify associations between weather variability and mumps occurrence. We developed a prediction model by using data during 2006-2009, and then validated using the data during 2010-2011. At last, we estimated the average occurrence of mumps in different domain of meteorological parameters to investigate the threshold effect.
A total of 6,570 cases of mumps were reported between 2006 and 2011. Our results showed a distinct seasonal pattern of mumps infection with a peak occurred in May or June. After adjustment of school days, monthly case counts was found to be associated with average temperature, difference in daily temperature, average vapor pressure, accumulated precipitation and accumulative sunshine hours by Negative Binomial regression analysis. Case-crossover analysis identified an acute association with temperature and vapor pressure 0-29 days, 0-25 days before occurrence of cases, respectively. Besides, mumps infection exhibited a different association with both mean temperature and mean vapor pressure in threshold estimation; it began to rise at temperatures above 20°C and decline when temperatures higher than around 25°C. On the other hand, when vapor pressure comes to 5-10hPa, mumps infection showed an increasing trend until 25-30hPa.
In conclusion, our study suggests average temperature, average vapor pressure and school days may play important role on transmission of mumps virus. Public-health authorities could regard the results of threshold estimation as a warning signal, applying together with prediction model for long-term trend, developing public-health interventions before May and June to reduce the risk of infection and spread of mumps virus.

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