| 研究生: |
葉昶志 Yeh, Chang-Chih |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
裁員宣告對股價之影響---以美國公司為例 |
| 指導教授: |
康信鴻
Kang, Hsin-Hong 張紹基 Chang, Shao-Chi |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 國際企業研究所 Institute of International Business |
| 論文出版年: | 2004 |
| 畢業學年度: | 92 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 69 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 事件研究法 、裁員宣告 、主動裁員與被動裁員 、裁員形式 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Layoff announcement, proactive and reactive layoff, layoff form |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:91 下載:18 |
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本研究以1996年至2002年美國上市公司為研究對象,旨在探討美國公司宣告裁員,對公司股價所造成的宣告效果。鑒於先前討論裁員宣告之實證研究中,公司主動或被動宣告裁員,是影響宣告效果的主要因素,雖然對於被動裁員均一致認為是顯著的負面影響,但是主動裁員的影響卻有爭議,且從未考慮宣告前公司股票營收的趨勢,可能帶來的影響,本研究採用此新的變數與主動或被動裁員宣告作為觀察宣告效果主要變數,進一步去釐清改變主動與被動裁員宣告效果的因素。
本研究先探討裁員的原因,並對過去有關裁員宣告的文獻進行整理,並以事件研究法與迴歸分析為主要分析方法。事件研究法實證得到裁員宣告具有短期負面的影響效果,本研究採用之新變數也證實對裁員宣告有影響,且在公司股票收益趨勢漸佳時,收益趨勢漸佳有幫助主動裁員宣告影響正面顯著的效果,亦有抵銷被動裁員宣告產生的負面影響效果。在迴歸分析輔以裁員形式、消息面等控制變數,並將樣本依主動被動裁員與公司股票收益趨勢漸佳或漸差進行分類,除了了解主要影響宣告效果的主要因素,進而分析不同宣告情況下影響的因素。
本研究之實證結果證實裁員規模為裁員形式中最主要影響的因素,在所有裁員宣告情況下,皆存在負向效果,其他裁員形式與消息面,則在不同的宣告情況下,有顯著的影響。
This study investigates stock price response to the announcement of 145 layoffs by American firms in public from 1996 to 2002. According previous studies, proactive or reactive layoff is the main factors to affect the outcome of layoff announcements. Although the previous researches all indicate the reactive layoffs have negative impact, the proactive layoffs effect is still a dispute. And we never find any study discuss the trend of company stock return before announcement that may affect the outcome of proactive and reactive layoffs, so this study sets this new variable and examines it.
First, this study discusses the causes of layoffs then adopts event study with market model and regression analysis. The event study result reveals the effect of layoff announcements is significantly negative and sustains about two days before and after the announcing day. The new variable we set up is also significant and has trade-off relationship to the effect of proactive and reactive layoff announcements.
In the regression analysis, we establish different conditions to examine the layoff forms, information impacts and other variables that may affect the abnormal return of the announcements. The result indicates the scale of the layoff is the main factor that affects outcome of layoff announcements. The other information variables are significant in different conditions.
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二、中文部分
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