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研究生: 葉昶志
Yeh, Chang-Chih
論文名稱: 裁員宣告對股價之影響---以美國公司為例
指導教授: 康信鴻
Kang, Hsin-Hong
張紹基
Chang, Shao-Chi
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際企業研究所
Institute of International Business
論文出版年: 2004
畢業學年度: 92
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 69
中文關鍵詞: 事件研究法裁員宣告主動裁員與被動裁員裁員形式
外文關鍵詞: Layoff announcement, proactive and reactive layoff, layoff form
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  •   本研究以1996年至2002年美國上市公司為研究對象,旨在探討美國公司宣告裁員,對公司股價所造成的宣告效果。鑒於先前討論裁員宣告之實證研究中,公司主動或被動宣告裁員,是影響宣告效果的主要因素,雖然對於被動裁員均一致認為是顯著的負面影響,但是主動裁員的影響卻有爭議,且從未考慮宣告前公司股票營收的趨勢,可能帶來的影響,本研究採用此新的變數與主動或被動裁員宣告作為觀察宣告效果主要變數,進一步去釐清改變主動與被動裁員宣告效果的因素。
      本研究先探討裁員的原因,並對過去有關裁員宣告的文獻進行整理,並以事件研究法與迴歸分析為主要分析方法。事件研究法實證得到裁員宣告具有短期負面的影響效果,本研究採用之新變數也證實對裁員宣告有影響,且在公司股票收益趨勢漸佳時,收益趨勢漸佳有幫助主動裁員宣告影響正面顯著的效果,亦有抵銷被動裁員宣告產生的負面影響效果。在迴歸分析輔以裁員形式、消息面等控制變數,並將樣本依主動被動裁員與公司股票收益趨勢漸佳或漸差進行分類,除了了解主要影響宣告效果的主要因素,進而分析不同宣告情況下影響的因素。
      本研究之實證結果證實裁員規模為裁員形式中最主要影響的因素,在所有裁員宣告情況下,皆存在負向效果,其他裁員形式與消息面,則在不同的宣告情況下,有顯著的影響。

      This study investigates stock price response to the announcement of 145 layoffs by American firms in public from 1996 to 2002. According previous studies, proactive or reactive layoff is the main factors to affect the outcome of layoff announcements. Although the previous researches all indicate the reactive layoffs have negative impact, the proactive layoffs effect is still a dispute. And we never find any study discuss the trend of company stock return before announcement that may affect the outcome of proactive and reactive layoffs, so this study sets this new variable and examines it.
      First, this study discusses the causes of layoffs then adopts event study with market model and regression analysis. The event study result reveals the effect of layoff announcements is significantly negative and sustains about two days before and after the announcing day. The new variable we set up is also significant and has trade-off relationship to the effect of proactive and reactive layoff announcements.
      In the regression analysis, we establish different conditions to examine the layoff forms, information impacts and other variables that may affect the abnormal return of the announcements. The result indicates the scale of the layoff is the main factor that affects outcome of layoff announcements. The other information variables are significant in different conditions.

    第一章、序論---------------------------------- 1 第一節、研究動機 ---------------------------- 1 第二節、研究目的 ---------------------------- 3 第二章、文獻探討------------------------------ 5 第一節、裁員的定義--------------------------- 5 第二節、裁員宣告代表的意涵之相關研究--------- 9 第三節、裁員宣告的種類對股價影響之相關研究--- 13 第四節、裁員宣告其他影響股價因素之相關研究--- 20 第五節、研究努力方向 ------------------------ 22 本章注釋------------------------------------- 23 第三章、研究範圍與方法 ----------------------- 24 第一節、研究假設 ---------------------------- 24 第二節、研究範圍與樣本選取標準 -------------- 28 第三節、實證研究方法 ------------------------ 29 本章注釋 ------------------------------------ 35 第四章、實證結果與分析------------------------ 36 第一節、資料搜集與實證樣本概述 -------------- 36 第二節、事件研究法分析 ---------------------- 40 第三節、橫斷面分析 -------------------------- 50 第四節、小結與推論 -------------------------- 59 本章注釋 ------------------------------------ 61 第五章、結論與建議 --------------------------- 62 第一節、研究結論 ---------------------------- 62 第二節、研究建議 ---------------------------- 65 參考文獻 ------------------------------------- 67 英文部分 ------------------------------------ 67 中文部分 ------------------------------------ 69

    一、英文部分

    1. Abowd, John M., Milkovich, George T., Hannon, John M., “The Effects of Human Resource Management Decisions on Shareholder Value,” Industrial an Labor Relations Review, vol. 43, pp.203-236, (1990)

    2. Anguish, Linda K., Cossack Naomi, Maingult Amy, “Payroll Cuts, Personal Hygiene, Extra Leave,” HR Magazine, Vol.48, No.6, pp.41-44, (2003)

    3. Blackwell, David W., Marr, M. Wayne, and Spivey, Michael F., “Plant-Closing Decisions and the Market Value of the Firm,” Journal of Financial Economics, pp.277-288, (1990)

    4. Brickley, J.A., Van Drunen, L.D., “Internal Corporate Restructuring:An Empirical Analysis,” Journal of Accounting and Economics (January), pp. 251-280, (1990)

    5. Chen, S.H., Gau G. W., Wang, L., “Stock-Market Reaction to Capital Investment Decisions:Evidence from Business Relocations,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (March), pp. 81-100, (1995)

    6. Chen, P., Mehrotra, V., Sivakumar, R., Yu, Wayne W., “Layoffs, Shareholders’ Wealth, and Corporation Performance,” Journal of Empirical Finance, pp. 171-199, (2001)

    7. Datta, S. and Iskandar-Datta, M.E., “Reorganization and Financial Distress:An Empirical Investigation,” the Journal of Financial Research, vol.18, pp15-32, (1995)

    8. Farber, Henry S., and Hallock, Kevin F., “Changing Stock Market Response to Announcements of Job Loss:Evidence from 1970-1997,” Working paper, (1999)

    9. Golomba, Michael J., and Tsetkekos, George P., “Plant Closings for Financially Weak and Financially Strong Firms,” Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, vol.31, No.3, pp.69-83, (1992)

    10. Gombola, Michael J., and Tsetkekos, George P., “The Information Content of Plant Closing Announcements:Evidence from Financial Profiles and the Stock Price Reaction,” Financial Management, Vol. 21, No.2, pp.31-40, (1992)

    11. Gunderson, Morley, Verma, Anil, and Verma, Savita, “Impact of Layoff Announcements on the Market Value of the Firm,” Relations Industrielles, Vol. 52, No.2, pp.364-381, (1997)

    12. Hallock, Kevin F., “Layoffs, Top Executive Pay, and Firm Performance,” The American Economic Review, No.4, pp.711-723, (1998)

    13. Hoskisson, R. E., Hitt, M. A., “Downscoping:How to Tame the Diversified Firm,” Oxford University Press, New York, (1994)

    14. Iqbal, Zahid, and Akhigbe, Aigbe, “Changes in Corporate Performance Associated with Layoffs,” Journal of Financial and Strategic Decision, Vol.10, No.2 pp.17-26, (1997)

    15. John, K, Lang, L.H.P., and Netter, J., “The Voluntary Restructuring of Large Firms in Response to Performance Decline,” Journal of Finance, Vol.47, pp.891-917, (1997)

    16. Lee, Peggy M., “A Comparative Analysis of Layoff Announcements and Stock Price Reactions in the United States and Japan” Strategic Management Journal Vol. 18, pp.879-894, (1997)

    17. Palmon, Oded , Sun, Huey-Lian , and Tang, Alex P., “Layoff announcements:Stock Market Impact and Financial Performance,” Financial Management Vol. 26, No.3, pp.54-68, (1997)

    18. Sudbury, Deborah A., “The Final Rule Under WARN:Beset with Pitfalls for the Unwary,” The Practical Labor Lawyer, vol.15, No.1, pp.147-156, (1989)

    19. Weg, Howard J., “Introduction to Federal Regulation of Plant Closings and Mass Layoff” Commercial Law Journal, vol.94, No.2, pp.123-158, (1989)

    20. Worrell, Dan L., Davidson III, Wallace N., and Sharma, Varinder M., “Layoff Announcements and Stockholder Wealth,” Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 34, No.3, pp.662-678, (1991)

    二、中文部分

    1. 吳宗祐,財務危機公司自發性重整行為宣告與股價異常報酬關聯性之研究,義守大學管理科學所未出版碩士論文,(2001)。

    2. 李惠妍,類神經網路與迴歸模式在台股指數期貨預測之研究,成功大學高階管理碩士在職專班未出版碩士論文,(2002)。

    3. 林武順,勞工法上解僱問題之研究, 政治大學勞工研究所未出版碩士論文,(1984)。

    4. 周信利,民營企業關廠時勞工保護之研究,中國文化大學勞工研究所未出版碩士論文,(1991)。

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