通常對公司進行基本面分析，最主要的目的為衡量公司的價值。而實務上最常使用的評價模型為超額盈餘法和現金流量折現法。然而企業會因為市場上的競爭或是目標的改變進而去影響公司的營運策略，而使得企業在不同階段下會有不同的特徵，因此有了企業生命週期理論。當企業處於不同的生命週期之下，因營運的策略不同，影響公司價值的因素也會跟隨著改變，在此情況下如果持續使用同一種評價模型做評價，可能會增加預估的偏誤。因此本篇研究主要是納入生命週期因子，探討在不同企業命週期之下，評價模型的適用度。本篇主要是以美國上市公司為研究對象，並且採用Anthony and Ramesh (1992) 所提出的分類法對樣本進行生命週期的分類。
實證結果顯示，當考慮生命週期因子後，評價模型的預估誤差普遍降低。而在T檢定中，我們發現在成長期與衰退期之下，超額盈餘法的預估誤差和現金流量折現法的預估誤差並沒有顯著差異；然而在成熟期階段的公司，兩個評價模型的誤差是顯著不同的，且超額盈餘法的預估誤差低於現金流量法的預估誤差。因此本篇研究的結論為: 考慮生命週期後，會提升評價模型的預估能力；而企業在成長期及衰退期的階段下，超額盈餘法和現金流量折現法的預估能力是一樣好的；然而成熟期的企業，較適合使用超額盈餘法。

In practical, the abnormal earnings model (AE) and the discounted free cash flow model (DCF) are two common models for people to estimate the firm value. However, Adize (1988) mentions that elasticity and control power are the two key factors which affect the firm life cycle. According to the balance of these two factors, each firm will progress through various stages during their life cycle. Under different stages, the operation style and the factors that affect the firm value will also change. Therefore, there will be errors if we still use the same valuation model for different life cycle stages firms. So, in this paper, we want to know which valuation model is more appropriate under each life cycle stages. We adopt the firms in COMPUSTAT as our samples and apply the method of Anthony and Ramesh (1992) to classify samples into different stages.
According to the empirical results, the errors of the valuation models by considering the life cycle factors are generally lower than those not consider the life cycle factors. The tests also reveal that the predicted errors between the AE model and the DCF model are not significant different under the growth stage and stagnant stage. However, the errors of the two models are significant different under mature stage. Therefore, we have the conclusions as follow: (1) Life cycle factors will affect the accuracy of the valuation models. (2) Under the growth stage and stagnant stage, the AE model is at least as well as the DCF model. (3) Under the mature stage, the AE model is more suitable than the DCF model.

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