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研究生：	林彥妤 Lin, Yen-yu
論文名稱：	利用影子價格衡量可更新能源價值 Valuation of Renewable Energy: The Shadow Prices Approach
指導教授：	耿伯文 Kreng, Victor B.
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系 Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年：	2009
畢業學年度：	97
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	53
中文關鍵詞：	距離函數、生命週期成本、影子價格、可更新能源
外文關鍵詞：	Life cycle cost, Renewable energies, Distance function, Shadow price
相關次數：	點閱：81 下載：0
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目前全球所面對的嚴峻考驗之一為氣候的改變。人類使用石化碳氫化合物能源是氣候改變的主要原因。因此，考慮使用可更新能源或投資可更新能源對於政府、消費者、投資者而言是相當重要性的議題。尤其是在未來能源的需求以及人口成長的速度將會耗盡地球上有限的石油、天然氣、煤。

本研究主要探討可更新能源的真實價值。研究中使用了環境構面與經濟構面的概念去建立本研究的模型。而在模型中使用生命週期成本概念結合影子價格的方法去建立鑑價模型，將使用此模型去顯示出可更新能源的真實價值。而在模型中也可以提供投資者以及消費者一個能源比較的標準，因為研究中以二氧化碳排放作為非欲意產出為概念。針對不同的能源供應商而言，模型使用距離函數去計算不同公司與不同能源間的生產效率與影子價格。根據影子價格的計算與生產效率的比較，本研究可以提供較多元的能源資訊與建議給顧客、供應商以及政府。

The climate change is one of the most difficult challenges facing the world today. Burning the fossil hydrocarbon energies is the main reason of anthropogenic climate change. Hence, consider using renewable energies toward governments, consumers and suppliers are important. Especially the energy demand and population growth are exhausting the world’s supplies of oil, gas and coal.

The research is mainly discussing the value of renewable energies. It includes the environmental and economic concept to construct the model. The model use life cycle cost concept combined shadow prices approach to reveal renewable energies realistic value. It can also provide a comparison standard which including undesirable outputs for consumers and decision- makers. Toward different energies suppliers, it use distance function to measure production inefficiency between energies. According to different shadow prices and production inefficiency, it can provide broader energies information for consumers, suppliers and governments.

Table of Contents
Chapter 1 IntroductionU	1
1.1 Research Background and MotivationU	1
1.2 Research ObjectivesU	2
1.3 Research Scope and RestrictionU	3
1.4 Research FlowU	4
Chapter 2 Literature ReviewU	5
2.1 Review of energyU	5
 2.1.1 Definition of energyU	5
 2.1.2 Environmental impacts from energyU	6
2.2 Valuation of energyU	7
 2.2.1 Financial option theory-portfolio analysisU	7
 2.2.2 Emergy analysisU	8
 2.2.3 Economics approachU	9
2.3 Shadow pricesU	12
 2.3.1 Shadow prices modelU	12
2.3.2 Application of shadow pricesU	14
2.4 Distance functionU	16
2.4.1 Definition of distance functionU	16
2.4.2 Estimation methods of distance functionU	19
Chapter 3 Building the Frontier model of valuing Renewable energiesU	22
3.1 Framework of ModelU	22
3.2 Model ConstructionU	23
3.2.1 The directional output distance functionU	23
3.2.2 Shadow pricing modelU	26
3.2.3 Life cycle costU	29
3.2.4 The quadratic functional formU	30
3.2.5 Linear programmingU	32
Chapter 4 Case StudiesU	33
4.1 Characteristics of Energy Industry in U.S.U	33
4.2 The Study of the energy industry in directional distance function modelU	34
4.2.1 The production efficiency in different companiesU	37
4.2.2 The production efficiency in different stage of life cycleU	43
4.3 Valuation of renewable energyU	44
4.4 DiscussionU	46
Chapter 5 Conclusion and suggestionU	47
5.1 ConclusionU	47
5.2 SuggestionU	48
UReferenceU	49

 
List of Tables

Table 2-1 Summarize the renewable energy studiesU	11
Table 2-2 Application of Shadow pricesU	15
Table 4-1 Renewable energy company statistics data in millionsU	35
Table 4-2 Energy industry in U.S. statistics data in millionsU	35
Table 4-3 Parameter estimates for entire energy industryU	35
Table 4-4 Parameter estimates for renewable energy companiesU	36
Table 4-7 Share of primary energy from renewables	45

 
List of Figures
Figure 1-1 Research FlowU	4
Figure 2-1 The input distance functionU	17
Figure 2-2 The output distance functionU	18
Figure 3-1 The Framework of ResearchU	22
Figure 3-2 The output distance function.U	25
Figure 4-1 U.S. Energy Consumption by Energy Source, 2003-2007U	34
Figure 4-2 Energy company production efficiencyU	37
Figure 4-3 Renewable energy company production efficiencyU	38
Figure 4-4 Scenario 1U	39
Figure 4-5 Scenario 2U	40
Figure 4-6 Scenario 3U	41
Figure 4-7 Scenario 4U	41
Figure 4-8 Scenario 5U	42
Figure 4-9 Scenario 6U	42
Figure 4-10 Renewable energy production efficiency in different stage of timeU	44
Figure 4-11 Production efficiency in different energy in different stage of timeU	44
Figure 4-11 The shadow price of different energyU	45
                                    

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