摘 要
平坦度是道路表面的現象表徵，也是用路者對行駛鋪面最直接之感覺，然而鋪面平坦與否，主要是決定在承包商在施工過程中，對施工過程的品管控制上，因此初始平坦度的品質良好與否，往往直接影響到鋪面未來的服務績效與生命週期成本。
本文經由蒐集來自國內省道的現地國際糙度指標(International Roughness Index, IRI)，運用統計與迴歸分析，並透過績效預測模式，推估各路段鋪面之服務壽命。結果顯示，在高雄段部份，若在沒有其它特殊破壞因素前提下，新築鋪面完工後，約有12.6年的服務壽命，而屏東段部份雖然有較高的劣化率，但因其具有較低之初始平坦度，故其服務壽命比高雄段約多出3年。
此外為了建立賞罰分級依據，本文利用現地IRI值，透過蒙地卡羅模擬法，模擬鋪面初始IRI值的分佈，並以生命周期成本的觀念，來推估其服務壽命與付款調整及付費因子之間的關係，並經由韋伯分佈函數，進行可靠性分析，來預測高雄段鋪面破壞與時間之關係，其結果顯示，完工10年後，鋪面破壞率約為45.8%，這個結果與績效預測模式所推估之服務壽命10年，其鋪面破壞率的47.5%相近。
本文希望經由一個合理且公正的過程，建立賞罰條款中付費因子分級之依據，並藉著激勵的方法，來促使材料供應商與承包商提昇材料與建造品質，讓國內平坦度賞罰能有所依據的順利推動。

ABSTRACT
Pavement roughness affects the comfort of driving on the road. A good quality for the roughness of the road could provide a better service as well as a longer PVT lift. Thus, pavement roughness can be a good judgment for the performance of the road construction. However, the major factors influeniry the roughness of the road construction are by the workmanship and the quality control of the road contractor. Therefore, to construct an adjustable payment framework system according to the degree of road pavement roughness would be a good solution for a better road.
The first step is collecting the data for International Roughness Index (IRI) of the provincial roads in Taiwan. The Monte carol simulation process is used to predict the life cycle costs (Lthe CC). According to the existed models, we can compare Kaoshiung case with that of Pingtung case. In Kaoshiung case, without any special damage cause by construction or others paving can serve about 12.6 years; In Pingtung case, although it has higher rate of deteriorate, however, it also has a lower initial pavement roughness. In the end, the service period of Pingtung is three years more then that of Kaoshiung.
The main concept of this paper is first, using existed ground IRI index and the Monte carol simulation process to modify an initial pavement IRI index. Second, by the concept of lift span coast to except its service life span and pay adjustment and pay factor. Finally, through the Web function to process a reliability analysis. Using such concept, this paper has successfully model a Kaoshiung road pavement construction case for its ten years lift span and has only 45.8% to accrue 47.5% different.
The purpose of this paper is to summarize a reasonable method for modeling the pavement life-cycle cost. The modeling method would help to create a fair and reasonable process according to the rating of the design roughness of road pavement for both the highway agency and the contractor.
Using by reasonable pay adjustment (PA) and reward for the result of construction, the agency would improve the quality of road construction.

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