| 研究生: |
黃麗瑛 Huang, Li-ying |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
陽光效用與股票市場--以新產品上市宣告為例 The Sunshine Impact of Market Return --Case of New Product Introduction |
| 指導教授: |
張紹基
Chang, Shao-Chi |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 國際企業研究所 Institute of International Business |
| 論文出版年: | 2004 |
| 畢業學年度: | 92 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 53 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 新產品上市宣告 、陽光效用 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Sunshine Effect, New Product Announcement |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:69 下載:3 |
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Saunders (1993)證明紐約證券交易所當地的天氣會對在紐約證券交易所交易的股票報酬產生影響。其後,Hirshleifer及Shumway(2003)引用1982年至1997年全球二十六個國家主要城市的資料,其實證結果顯示交易所所在地的陽光量之多寡與市場報酬間有關聯,並再次支持Saunders (1993)之研究結果。文章中觀點為:陽光量會影響到人們的心情狀態,而人們的心情狀態又會影響到其決策過程以及行為,最後影響到市場報酬。
Hirshleifer及Shumway(2003)的這一篇文章給我們在檢驗股票市場報酬上新的啟發。若真如該研究所示,陽光量的確與整體市場報酬有關,則陽光的效果應將會顯現在其他的交易行為上。故,本研究的中心主旨在於,延續Hirshleifer及Shumway(2003)之研究,引入特定的事件後,檢驗陽光量與股票市場間的關聯。
由於新產品上市宣告為公司之重要事件,且企業的新產品上市蘊含著高失敗風險及高度的資訊不對稱,再加上新產品上市宣告本身具正向特徵的資訊釋放,因此我們期望心情在此事件上將有顯著的影響。故本研究目的為:當公司宣佈新產品上市後,隨著陽光量的多寡的不同是否會造成該事件對報酬之影響程度上有所不同。
實證結果支持了本研究的第一個假設( H1:陽光量充足時,新產品上市宣告會有較高度的正向效果。),即當天空雲層覆蓋量低陽光量充足時,對新產品上市宣告將造成正向效果。關於第二個假設( H2:陽光量與新產品宣告相關資訊間存在會影響宣告市場效果的交互作用。),本研究並未得到一致的實證結果。我們預期交互作用對宣告效果的影響應是負向的,然而在本研究中獲顯著結果的三個交互作用項中,一交互作用為負向,而另二個交互作用卻為負向。因此未能證明陽光量與相關訊息間存在交互作用效果。
Saunders (1993) showed that local weather of NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) influenced the stock returns exchanged in NYSE. Later, Hirshleifer and Shumway (2003) adopted data from 26 countries’ main cities and got the evidence that sunlight is related to market returns. The idea from these two papers is: Sunlight influences humans’ mood and mood affects decision-making process and behaviors. Finally, it will influence the market returns. Hirshleifer and Shumway (2003) gave us the new thinking of testing the stock market. If what they showed is true, the sunshine effect will also exist on other exchange behaviors.
We expect that the mood effect on new product announcements will be significant, because new product introductions include high failure rates and high information asymmetry and the announcement itself is a positive information release. Therefore, this study’s objective is to extend Hirshleifer & Shumway (2003)’s research, to introduce the new product introduction event, and to examine the relation between sunshine and the stock market.
Our findings support hypothesis1 that when sunshine is strong, new product announcements will obtain more positive return than in cloudy days. For hypothesis2, we don’t get totally consistent results with our expectations. Therefore, we couldn’t prove the interaction between sunlight and relevant information of new product announcements.
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