近年來，由於氣候變遷造成降雨模式改變，導致乾旱現象愈來愈嚴重。乾旱的時空特性與其發展過程及驅動力息息相關，瞭解乾旱的演變和物理驅動因素對於水資源管理與預測工作有重大意義。本研究利用標準化降水指數評估濁水溪沖積扇乾旱事件之時間與空間特徵，透過二維copula函數，本研究建立了乾旱持續時間和極端乾旱覆蓋率的聯合機率分佈。這種方法能夠識別重大乾旱事件並估計其聯合重現期，與單一特徵方法相比，提供了更現實的視角。最後，本研究透過乾旱遷移模型分析主要乾旱事件之空間分佈、時空路徑及變化程度。研究結果顯示，1960年至2021年濁水溪沖積扇乾旱覆蓋率大於10%的乾旱事件有54件，延時多為6個月，且多數極端乾旱發生在12月。此外，乾旱事件在1981年之後往南移動的機率增加，且乾旱頻率的空間分佈在1981前後有明顯差異。乾旱遷移模型的結果顯示，透過二維copula函數選定的七個主要乾旱事件在初期和末期時路徑較長且移動速度更快，中期路徑較短且多集中於濁水溪沖積扇中部。乾旱路徑在1981年前移動路徑各不相同，月乾旱質心分佈較分散。1981年後則皆為由北到南移動，且月乾旱質心在濁水溪沖積扇內皆集中在北—南向分佈，分散程度小，方向性明顯，其主要原因為春季(2月到4月)時濁水溪沖積扇北部降雨量多於南部，使乾旱質心持續向南移動造成。這些研究結果可以進一步了解濁水溪沖積扇乾旱的動態過程，並作為未來水資源管理的參考。

In recent years, the changing rainfall patterns resulting from climate change have led to an increasingly severe occurrence of drought. The spatiotemporal characteristics of drought are closely linked to its development process and driving forces. Understanding the evolution of drought and the physical driving factors holds significant importance for water resource management and forecasting efforts. This study employs the Standardized Precipitation Index to assess the temporal and spatial characteristics of drought events in the Choushui River alluvial fan. Through a two-dimensional copula function, this study establishes a joint probability distribution for drought duration and extreme drought coverage. This approach enables the identification of major drought events and the estimation of their joint return periods, providing a more realistic perspective compared to single-characteristic approaches. Finally, this study analyzes the spatial distribution, spatiotemporal paths, and variations of major drought events by establishing a drought migration model. The results indicate that from 1960 to 2021, there were 54 drought events with a coverage exceeding 10% in the Choushui River alluvial fan, with a duration mostly lasting for 6 months, and the majority of extreme droughts occurred in December. Furthermore, the probability of drought events moving southward increased after 1981, with a noticeable difference in the spatial distribution of drought frequency before and after 1981. The results of the drought migration model show that the seven major drought events selected through the two-dimensional copula function had longer path length and higher migration velocity in the early and late stages. In the mid-term of a drought event, paths were shorter, and the distribution was more concentrated around the centroid of the Choushui River alluvial fan. Before 1981, drought paths were diverse, with monthly drought centroids exhibiting a more scattered distribution. After 1981, all paths follow a trajectory from north to south, and the monthly drought centroids were concentrated in a north-south direction of the Choushui River alluvial fan, with a small dispersion and clear directionality. This is primarily attributed to the higher rainfall in the northern region of the Choushui River alluvial fan from February to April, leading to a consistent southward movement of drought centroids. These findings provide further insight into the dynamic process of drought in the Choushui River alluvial fan and serve as valuable references for future water resource management.

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