近年來，隨著人口規模、結構等方面的變化，全球許多城市規模已然不再繼續擴大，過去以成長為導向的規劃思維逐漸受到挑戰，在這樣的背景之下，臺灣也無法避免面臨需要回應人口減少、高齡化及需求縮減帶來的挑戰。而當需求逐漸縮減、城市逐漸縮小的現象成為常態，人們開始思考以順應現況為規劃主軸的可能性，也引出智慧收縮的理念，然而過往城市收縮相關研究較少針對舊城區或歷史街區探討，本研究即是立基於此一研究缺口，並進一步嘗試從智慧收縮觀點討論其規劃意涵，分析城市收縮在歷史街區尺度下的分布情形以及其與房地產市場之關聯。基於此，本研究以臺南市府城歷史街區為研究對象，探討人口收縮情境下不同地區之房價表現差異，以及歷史資源、歷史環境再整備與房價表現之關聯。研究首先以里尺度人口資料建構人口收縮指標，並透過空間自相關分析檢視人口收縮之空間分布型態，其次，以人口結構作為補充分析面向，並運用特徵價格模型分析人口收縮程度、核心區位、歷史資源可及性、文化資產修繕狀態及街道改造區位與房價表現之關聯。
研究結果顯示，府城歷史街區之人口收縮具有顯著但程度較弱的正向空間自相關，核心區人口總量相對穩定，但扶養比上升較為明顯，顯示其仍面臨人口結構老化課題，相較之下，緩衝區則呈現較明顯之人口流失。特徵價格模型結果顯示，人口收縮程度與房價表現呈負向關聯，而核心區位、國定古蹟及部分歷史街道之鄰近性則與較高房價表現具有關聯。文化資產鄰近性及街道改造區位亦與較高房價表現具有關聯，其中，已修繕文化資產距離之估計係數較大，表示文化資產維護與歷史街區環境改善可能反映於房地產市場評價之中。此外，人口收縮程度與核心區之交互作用項為正，顯示核心區中人口收縮與房價表現之負向關聯相對較弱。整體而言，本研究發現人口收縮與府城歷史街區房地產價格表現之間存在負向關聯，而核心區位、部分歷史資源可及性、文化資產修繕狀態與街道改造區位，則可能具有一定市場支撐作用。此一結果顯示，人口收縮與房價的負向關聯在核心區內有所減弱，而歷史資源與房價之關聯亦會因資源類型、修繕狀況及周邊環境改善而有所差異，因此舊城區規劃應整合人口變動、區位條件與歷史資源類型與保存狀況，作為土地使用調整、歷史資源保存再利用及公共資源投入優先順序之依據。

Population decline, aging, and shrinking demand have increasingly challenged growth-oriented urban planning, highlighting the relevance of smart shrinkage. This study examines population shrinkage and housing price performance in the Fu-Cheng Historic District of Tainan, with particular attention to historic resources and environmental improvement. Village-level population data are used for spatial autocorrelation analysis, while hedonic price models examine the relationships between housing prices, population shrinkage, core-area location, historic resource accessibility, cultural heritage restoration, and street improvement areas.
The results show weak but significant spatial clustering of population shrinkage. The core area remains relatively stable in population but shows greater demographic aging, whereas the buffer area experiences more evident population loss. Population shrinkage is negatively associated with housing prices, while core-area location, proximity to certain historic resources, restored cultural heritage, and street improvement areas are associated with higher prices. This negative relationship is also weaker within the core area.
These findings suggest that historic resources and environmental improvement may support housing market performance and inform differentiated adaptation and resource allocation in old urban areas.

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