| 研究生: |
陳乙銓 Chen, Yi-Cyuan |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
影響台灣信用風險指標之重要因素:門檻與產業別 The Important Factors which affect Taiwan Credit Risk Index:Threshold and Industry |
| 指導教授: |
康信鴻
Kang, Hsin-Hung |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 國際企業研究所 Institute of International Business |
| 論文出版年: | 2011 |
| 畢業學年度: | 99 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 52 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 信用風險 、台灣信用風險指標 、門檻 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Credit risk, Taiwan Credit Risk Index, Threshold |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:53 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
本文探討影響台灣中小企業信用評等模型的因子。回顧2010年全球經濟概況,似乎已從金融風暴的陰霾中復甦。國際景氣好轉和亞洲新興國家維持擴張,企業及消費已逐漸好轉,2010年隨著我國商品出口之需求逐季升溫,實質GDP成長率可望回復至金融風暴前的水準。在前景看好之下,支撐我國經濟主體的中小企業與銀行間的交易會更為頻繁。也由於各國開始重視風險的控管,這也顯示一個良好的信用評等模型的重要性。
本研究樣本為2006年至2009年上市之公開發行之化學業、電機機械業、半導體業公司共208間公司。並探討兩個重要因子:門檻與產業別,對於TCRI信用評等模型下的迴歸式有何影響。
由本研究分析結果得知,在TCRI模型下,設立門檻會明顯的降低各項財務比率對於評等等級的解釋能力,但對於等級轉移的穩定性有幫助;若依照產業別去計算最終信用評等等級,則各項財務比率對於平等等級的解釋能力皆不如原本TEJ之TCRI模型。且不同的產業間各項財務比率對於評等等級的解釋能力有所差別,其中以樣本數最少的化學工業其財務變數的解釋能力最差。
This paper examines the factors which affect the regression results of Taiwan Credit Risk Index (TCRI) model. Reviewed 2010 overview of the global economy, it seems get rid of the haze from financial crisis and liquidity crunch. Economic recovered in countries. Under this prospects, the transactions between small and medium corporations and banks will be more frequently. Banks need put attention on credit risk from their lending to small and medium corporations.
In this study, we collect 208 firms from TEJ database including three different industries which are chemical industry, electrical machinery industry and semiconductor industry from 2006 to 2009. We use four difference processes to examine the threshold effect and industry effect.
The results from this study indicate that, When we remove the threshold limit, the regression model of credit risk ranks has great difference and fit better than original model. But the transition matrix results are worst than original model.;When we calculate firm’s basic score sort out different industries, both transition matrix results and regression results are worst than original TCRI model.
Altman, E. (1968), “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction
of Corporation Bankruptcy,” The Journal of Finance, 13, pp.589-609.
Altman,E, & Sabato, G. (2005). “Effects of the New Basel Capital Accord on Bank
Capital Requirements for SMEs”. Journal of Financial Services Research,
28, pp.15-42.
Altman, E., Haldeman, R. and Narayanan, P. (1977), “Zeta Analysis: A New
Model to Identify Bankruptcy risk of Corporations, ” Journal of Banking &
Finance, 1, pp.29-54.
Black, F., and J. Cox, (1976), “Valuing corporate securities: some effects of
bond indenture provisions”, Journal of Finance, 31, pp.351-367
Beaver, W. H. (1966), “Financial Ratio Predictors Failure, ” Empirical Research
in Accounting, 4, pp.71-111.
Collins, R. A., and Green, R. D. (1982), “Statistical Methods for Bankruptcy
Forecasting,” Journal of Economics and Business, pp.52-57.
Ederington, Louis H., and Jeremy C. Goh, (1998), “Bond rating agencies and
stock analysts: who knows what when?”, Journal of Financial and
Quantitative Analysis, 33, pp.569-585.
James A. Ohlson(1980), Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of
Bankruptcy, Journal of Banking and Finance, 1, pp.249-276
Kolari, J., T.H. McInish and E.M. Saniga (1989), A Note on the Distribution
Type of Financial Ratios in the Commercial Banking Industry, Journal of
banking & finance, Amsterdam, July.
Lo, A.W.(1986), Logit verse Discriminant Analysis A Specification Test and
Application to Corporate Bankruptcies, Journal of Economertrics, 31, pp.151-178.
Ohlson, J. (1980), “Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of
Bankruptcy,” Journal of Accounting Research, 18, pp.109-131.
Pompe, P. and Bilderbeek, J. (2005), “The Prediction of Bankruptcy of Small-
and Medium-Sized Industrial Firms,” Journal of Business Venturing, vol. 20, pp.847-868
Robert A. Collins(1980), An Empirical Comparison of Bankruptcy Prediction Models,
Financial Management, summer 1980, pp.52-87
Young, S. D. (1999), Some reflection on accounting adjustments and economic
value added, Journal of Financial Statement Analysis, pp.7-19.
王仁智(2009),「TCRI 信用評等變動因素之實證研究」,國立高雄第一科技大學風險管理與保險所碩士論文。
王世賢(2008),「中小企業信用風險評估-考慮總體變數與極端值」,私立東吳大學經濟所碩士論文。
萬智傑(2007),「台灣中小企業之財務危機預警模型、信用評等與巴塞爾協定資本計提」,私立東吳大學企業管理所碩士論文。
謝明憲(2005),「信用評等對銀行業效率之影響分析」,高雄第一科技大學金融營運所碩士論文。
莊傑富(2004),「不同信用評分模型對信用評等之影響」,私立東吳大學經濟所碩士論文。
孫敏瑗(2004),「加入信用評等下的銀行績效評估」,私立東吳大學經濟所碩士論文。
吳錠錩(2004),「金融資產證券化信用評等之研究」,私立朝陽科技大學財務金融所碩士論文。
王姿菲(2004),「信用評等與盈餘管理之關聯性分析」,私立東吳大學國際經濟所碩士論文。
丁玉成(1999),「台灣區銀行信用評等之模式研究-以Bank Watc評等為基礎的實證研究」,國立雲林科技大學財務金融所碩士論文。
校內:2016-08-03公開